Main Points:
- Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $111,814 on May 22, 2025, underpinned by robust on-chain metrics.
- CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index surged to 80, signaling sustained bullish sentiment.
- Demand growth over the past 30 days neared December 2024’s peak, while whales’ accumulation pace showed signs of slowing.
- Bitcoin briefly dipped below the $106,000 support amid anticipation of Federal Reserve minutes and legal developments around Trump tariffs.
- Unrealized profit ratio climbed to 32%, approaching key resistance thresholds historically linked to short-term pullbacks.
- Next major resistance zone lies between $120,000 and $135,700, with $120,000 as the psychological barrier to watch.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged $431 million in net inflows on May 28 and a record $5.77 billion in May.
- BlackRock’s IBIT ETF alone amassed $6.22 billion in May, underscoring institutional demand.
- Institutional investors rebalanced Bitcoin ETF holdings: some trimming positions amid volatility, others increasing exposure.
- U.S. government moves—such as the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve executive order—bolster perceptions of Bitcoin’s growing macro role.
Historic All-Time High and Bullish On-Chain Metrics
In late May 2025, Bitcoin soared to a fresh all-time high of $111,814, eclipsing its previous January peak and demonstrating the resilience of the current bull cycle. This rally was supported by CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index, which climbed to 80—firmly within the historically bullish zone above 60—indicating strong network activity, liquidity, and investor confidence. On-chain demand growth over the prior 30 days neared 229,000 BTC, approaching the December 2024 peak of 279,000 BTC as both retail and institutional participants sought exposure to the asset. Concurrently, the share of Bitcoin held by large addresses rose by 2.8% over one month, a level that in past cycles has presaged a cooling of accumulation pace before corrections. Together, these metrics painted a picture of a market in the late stages of a rally—robust, but vulnerable to profit-taking pressures as historically observed when on-chain indicators cross into overheated territory.
Signs of Overheating and Short-Term Correction Risk
Despite the prevailing bullish backdrop, several on-chain signals hinted at near-term consolidation or pullback risks. The unrealized profit ratio for Bitcoin—measuring the average profit of unspent Bitcoin—reached 32% as prices closed above $111,000. Historically, readings approaching 40% have marked significant resistance, while dips below the 30-day moving average (around 19%) have preceded relief rallies. Furthermore, traders reacted to external events: on May 29, amid anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve releasing its May meeting minutes and legal developments surrounding proposed Trump tariffs, Bitcoin briefly slipped below its $106,000 support level, trading near $105,819 on Binance before rebounding. This volatility underscored the market’s sensitivity to macroeconomic cues and underscored that even in a strong uptrend, corrections of 5–7% can materialize swiftly.
Resistance Levels and Price Projections
Looking ahead, technical and on-chain models identify the $120,000–$135,700 zone as the next battleground for Bitcoin, with $120,000 serving as the critical psychological and realized-price upper band threshold. Glassnode’s latest on-chain report places this resistance between $120,300 and $135,700—levels that historically encapsulate periods of exuberant profit-taking before new highs are forged. Market strategists at Chainlink-aligned research firms also highlight that breaking above $120,000 could unleash a fresh leg of momentum, driven by algorithmic trading and institutional allocations targeting round-number price zones. Conversely, failure to clear $120,000 convincingly may trigger a retracement toward $100,000–$106,000, where short-term holders seek break-even exits. For investors seeking new crypto assets, monitoring these technical benchmarks alongside on-chain metrics provides a framework for entry and exit decision-making.
ETF Inflows and Institutional Adoption
Institutional channels continued to pour capital into Bitcoin, even as price oscillated. On May 28, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $431 million in net inflows, led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and offset slightly by outflows from ARK 21Shares (ARKB) and Fidelity’s FBTC. Across the month, the 11 major U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs aggregated $5.77 billion in net inflows—their strongest performance since November 2024—underscoring sustained demand from wealth managers, family offices, and hedge funds. Farside Investor data shows IBIT alone amassed $6.22 billion in May, marking its best monthly inflows to date. Meanwhile, regulatory filings reveal institutional investors like Millennium Management and Brevan Howard trimming some holdings amid recent volatility, even as new entrants—such as Brown University and Mubadala—initiated or added to their ETF stakes, reflecting a maturing adoption cycle.
Macro and Regulatory Drivers
Beyond market flows, broader macro and regulatory developments bolstered Bitcoin’s narrative as a digital reserve asset. In March 2025, President Trump signed an executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a United States Digital Asset Stockpile, mandating federal agencies to account for and potentially transfer forfeited crypto holdings to a long-term reserve. This unprecedented move signaled government recognition of Bitcoin’s role akin to gold, incentivizing beyond pure speculative demand. Simultaneously, stablecoin regulation discussions in the U.S. Senate and dovish shifts in global central bank outlooks—particularly following mixed Fed minutes—have added layers of interest-rate and currency-hedge narratives that position Bitcoin as a non-sovereign store of value. Finally, technological progress in Layer 2 scaling, institutional-grade custody solutions, and DeFi integrations continue to expand practical blockchain use cases, enabling institutions and sophisticated traders to engage with secure, transparent infrastructure.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s late-May 2025 rally encapsulates the dichotomy of mature bull markets: powerful momentum fueled by on-chain strength and institutional inflows, counterbalanced by clear signs of overheating and potential correction triggers. As metrics like the Bull Score Index and unrealized profit ratios signal robust but stretched conditions, traders and investors should brace for volatility around critical zones—particularly $106,000 and the looming $120,000 resistance band. Institutional dynamics, from record ETF inflows to government reserve mandates, offer enduring structural support, while macroeconomic shifts and regulatory clarity continue to shape the narrative of Bitcoin as both a speculative asset and a strategic hedge. For those seeking new crypto assets, the current juncture presents opportunities to deploy capital judiciously, leveraging technical indicators, on-chain analytics, and evolving blockchain applications to navigate a landscape defined by both promise and prudent risk management.
