Main Points:
- Ethereum bounces from its 200-week simple moving average (SMA), reinforcing long-term support.
- Bitcoin attempts to break crucial resistance at $62,000, with a short-term holder realized price target at $61,998.
- Ethereum’s price increased by 2.5%, trading around $2,430, with critical support at $2,298 (200-week SMA).
- The U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut strengthens the upward momentum of crypto markets.
- Bitcoin faces continued resistance but shows constructive price action toward $65,000.
- Upcoming macroeconomic data from Japan and the U.S. will influence crypto markets.
- Bitcoin ETFs experience a slight outflow, with Grayscale and ARK seeing notable withdrawals.
Ethereum Reinforces Long-Term Support
Ethereum (ETH) has rebounded from its 200-week simple moving average (SMA), a critical long-term indicator of market momentum. This level, situated at $2,298, marks a significant support zone, suggesting that Ethereum’s price may have found a bottom. Over the past 24 hours, ETH has risen by 2.5%, trading around $2,430, and this consistent defense of the 200-week SMA signals potential for upward continuation in the longer term.
Historically, assets that maintain levels above the 200-week SMA are viewed as trending positively. Ethereum’s ability to repeatedly bounce from this support, especially in recent months amid market sell-offs, adds confidence to the bullish case for the asset.
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, reducing the policy rate to 4.75%, has further fueled optimism. Lower interest rates generally support higher-risk assets, such as cryptocurrencies, and the broader market has responded positively.
Bitcoin’s Battle with Key Resistance Levels
Bitcoin (BTC) is also facing key technical levels. Trading around $62,000, it is testing resistance not seen since its all-time high in March. For Bitcoin to maintain its bullish momentum, it must decisively break through the $65,000 barrier. Surpassing this level could trigger a new rally, potentially leading to further gains.
A particularly important metric for Bitcoin is the short-term holder (STH) realized price, which currently sits at $61,998. This realized price represents the average on-chain acquisition cost of coins held by short-term investors. Over the past six months, Bitcoin has struggled to stay above this level. A sustained move above the STH realized price would be a significant bullish signal, indicating stronger market conviction among short-term participants.
If Bitcoin can hold above these critical levels, it may continue to build on its recent gains, solidifying its position as a dominant market force.
Macro Factors Influencing Bitcoin and Ethereum
Looking ahead, several macroeconomic factors are expected to impact the price movements of Bitcoin and Ethereum. On September 20th, Japan is set to release its inflation data, which is expected to show a slight year-on-year increase in both core and overall inflation rates. Additionally, the Bank of Japan is expected to announce its interest rate decision, with a hold at 0.25% anticipated by markets.
These events could inject volatility into the cryptocurrency market, as global monetary policies continue to influence investor sentiment toward riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies.
In particular, the weakening yen has been a tailwind for Bitcoin, making it more attractive to Japanese investors. Conversely, a strengthening yen could act as a headwind, pushing prices lower. The broader backdrop of U.S. monetary policy also plays a role, with the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut likely to bolster risk appetite in global markets.
Bitcoin ETF Outflows: A Sign of Cooling Demand?
Amid the ongoing macroeconomic developments, Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a noticeable outflow. According to Farside data, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded their first outflow since September 11, with a total of $52.7 million withdrawn. Notable contributors to this outflow include ARK’s ARKB, which saw $43.4 million withdrawn, and Grayscale’s GBTC, with an $8.1 million outflow.
Despite these recent withdrawals, total inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs still amount to $17.4 billion, reflecting continued strong institutional interest in Bitcoin. However, the recent outflow could signal short-term cooling demand, possibly as investors wait for clearer macroeconomic signals or take profits after the recent rally.
Technical and Macro Dynamics Shape the Crypto Outlook
Bitcoin and Ethereum are at a critical juncture, with both assets grappling with key technical levels that will likely determine their next major price moves. Ethereum’s defense of its 200-week SMA and Bitcoin’s battle at $62,000 are crucial indicators of the broader market trend. However, the macroeconomic backdrop, particularly in Japan and the U.S., will play a significant role in shaping price action in the coming days.
As inflation data and interest rate decisions loom, the interplay between global financial policies and cryptocurrency markets will continue to create volatility. Investors should remain mindful of these macroeconomic factors, as they will influence not only the short-term direction of Bitcoin and Ethereum but also the broader risk sentiment across all asset classes.
