Main Points:
- Arthur Hayes cautions that Bitcoin could fall back to $100,000 as macroeconomic pressures mount.
- Weak July U.S. employment data and renewed tariff concerns have rattled markets.
- Slowing credit growth is dampening nominal GDP and crypto valuations.
- Hayes has already realized profits, selling over $8 million in ETH, $4.6 million in ENA, and $0.4147 million in PEPE.
- His wallet now holds $28.3 million in tokens, 81% of which is parked in USDC.
- Bitcoin and Ethereum have corrected by 7.7% and 12.5%, respectively, from their recent highs.
- Many analysts argue that post-ETF volatility has subsided, making large crashes unlikely.
- Emerging altcoins like Little Pepe (LILPEPE), SUI, XLM, and ADA present fresh upside opportunities.
Macro Pressures Dampen Crypto Rally
Arthur Hayes, CIO of MatrixStorm Fund, highlighted that the U.S. nonfarm payroll figure for July rose by only 73,000 jobs, signaling economic softness and reviving concerns over tariff escalations. He attributes the recent sell-off in cryptocurrencies to these renewed macro uncertainties, noting that trade tensions and weak employment data have tested risk-asset sentiment.
He further warned that slowing credit expansion across major economies is suppressing nominal GDP growth, which in turn constrains asset valuations across the board, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). According to Hayes, these pressures could push Bitcoin down toward the $100,000 level and Ethereum toward the $3,000 mark.
Hayes’s Portfolio Moves Signal Caution
Blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain revealed that Hayes has already begun taking profits. In recent transactions, he sold:
- 830,000 USD-equivalent ETH (approx. $8.3 million)
- 462,000 USD-equivalent ENA (approx. $4.62 million)
- 414,700 USD-equivalent PEPE (approx. $0.4147 million).
Data from Arkham Intelligence shows his wallet still holds some $28.3 million in tokens, of which $22.95 million (81%) is parked in USDC, underscoring his defensive posture. Technical Correction: BTC and ETH Retrace
Following Bitcoin’s all-time high of $123,153 on July 14, 2025, the flagship cryptocurrency has slipped by 7.7% to $114,779 as of August 4, 2025. Ethereum peaked at $3,900 on July 28, then retraced by 12.5% to $3,397 by August 3, 2025.
[Insert Figure 1 here: Bitcoin Price (USD) July 14 to August 4, 2025]
Contrarian Views: The Calm After the Storm
Despite Hayes’s caution, many on-chain analysts and ETF strategists believe that the era of double-digit crashes is over. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out that since BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF filing in June 2023, Bitcoin has experienced “markedly lower volatility and has never seen a stomach-churning plunge”.
Mitchell Asquith, chief analyst at Blockware Solutions, echoed this sentiment, suggesting that the days of parabolic bull runs followed by devastating bear markets are behind us, as institutional adoption and ETF inflows create a more stable demand base.
Emerging Opportunities in Altcoins
While BTC and ETH face consolidation, several altcoins are drawing attention for their growth potential. According to a recent IndiaTimes analysis, Little Pepe (LILPEPE) is transitioning from a meme coin to a DeFi ecosystem, trading at just $0.0016 with zero transaction tax and community staking incentives. SUI, at around $4.05, leverages a high-speed non-EVM chain with Bitcoin-backed DeFi. Stellar (XLM) is aligning with ISO 20022 for institutional adoption, and Cardano (ADA), trading near $0.82, is benefiting from rising developer activity and a new privacy sidechain.
Looking Forward: Market Outlook
As macroeconomic headwinds persist—especially from potential tariff hikes and weak job growth—Hayes’s scenario of a Bitcoin retrace to $100,000 remains plausible. However, robust institutional infrastructure, ETF liquidity, and diversifying altcoin opportunities could temper volatility and offer new avenues for investors seeking yield and real-world blockchain applications.
Conclusion:
Arthur Hayes’s bearish thesis serves as a sober reminder that macro forces still exert significant influence on crypto markets. His own profit-taking underscores the risks ahead, yet the market’s evolving structure—anchored by ETFs and institutional participation—may cushion the severity of any pullback. For investors, the near-term focus should be on risk management around major assets like BTC and ETH, while exploring high-upside altcoins for potential next-wave returns.
