Main Points：
- Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and now head of Maelstrom, liquidated his full HYPE holdings (~96,628 tokens) for about US$5.1 million, realizing ~US$823,000 profit (~19.2%) shortly after predicting HYPE could rise 126× over three years.
- The sale was reportedly to fund a deposit on a Ferrari 849 Testarossa, but more substantially tied to concerns around upcoming massive token unlocks, supply overhangs, and competitive pressure.
- HYPE has seen striking growth since its launch (up ~660%) and very strong recent trading volume spikes — for example from ~$560 million in early August to ~$3.4 billion on one day.
- Technical indicators are showing signs of weakening: the price has dropped from its all-time high (~US$59.40) to the US$48-$50 range. Key support levels, especially at ~$40, are being watched. Unlock schedule of ~237.8 million tokens starting Nov 29, vesting over 24 months (~US$11.9 billion in notional at current prices), could introduce ~$500 million/month new supply, only ~17% of which could be absorbed via buybacks.
- Despite this, Hayes and Maelstrom still maintain that the 126× forecast is possible by 2028, labeling these issues short-term tests rather than fatal flaws.
1. Background on HYPE and Arthur Hayes’s Prediction
Hyperliquid (“HYPE”) is the native token of the decentralized derivatives exchange Hyperliquid, which has quickly captured market attention. Since its launch in late 2023 at ~US$6.51, HYPE has surged ~660% at its highs.
In August 2025, at the WebX Asia conference in Tokyo, Arthur Hayes made a bold prediction: that HYPE could appreciate 126× over three years (thus around by 2028), driven, in his view, by accelerating adoption, increasing stablecoin volume, and substantial revenue growth from decentralized exchange fees.
2. What Actually Happened — Hayes Sells Out
On September 21-22, 2025, Hayes sold all ~96,628 of his HYPE tokens for about US$5.1 million, realizing a 19.2% gain (~US$823,000 profit).
He joked that the sale was partly to afford a deposit on a new Ferrari 849 Testarossa. But more seriously, Hayes (and his firm Maelstrom) explained that the impending large token unlock schedule, competitive threats, and concerns about market dynamics played a role.
3. Tokenomics & Supply Pressure
A key risk flagged is the unlock schedule. Starting November 29, 2025, 237.8 million HYPE tokens will begin vesting and be released into circulation linearly over 24 months. At current prices (~US$50), this corresponds to US$11.9 billion of tokens. That means about US$500 million/month of new supply flowing into the market.
Buyback mechanisms currently in place are only expected to absorb about 17% of that new supply (~US$87 million/month), leaving a sizable (~US$410+ million) monthly supply overhang.
If demand does not scale sufficiently, these supply pressures could weigh substantially on price. Also, developer allocations once vesting starts may add further sell pressure.
4. Technical & Market Signals
- After reaching recent records near US$59.40, HYPE has dropped into the US$48-50 range. Some forecasts see possible further decline toward US$40 if support fails.
- HYPE is trading below certain key moving averages (50-day, 200-day), indicating weakening technical momentum.
- Trading volume and open interest remain high — futures interest, active order books, etc. — showing that there is still engagement. But sentiment seems more fragile.
5. Competitive Landscape & Other Headwinds
- New challengers are emerging. One is ASTER, a DEX (derivatives-focused) which has gained recent traction. Observers comment that ASTER’s recent DEX volume has flipped HYPE’s in certain metrics.
- Regulatory and macro environment: inflation in fiat, stablecoins’ role, regulatory developments may shape the adoption and risks. Hayes has posited that fiat devaluation will help stablecoin expansion, which in turn benefits Hyperliquid’s revenue model. But macro risks (interest rates, regulation) remain.
6. Recent Developments Post-Sale
- The market reacted quickly: HYPE price dropped ~8-10% after Hayes confirmed the full exit.
- The looming token unlocks start to dominate discourse: many analysts (Maelstrom, CryptoSlate, etc.) now warn that the November unlocks are a critical inflection point.
- Technical forecasts suggest in short to medium term HYPE could see support tests around US$40 if downward momentum accelerates. But some bullish models still see possible upside toward US$58-60 if current support holds.
7. Implications for Practical Use & Investors Seeking New Assets/ Revenue
For those looking for new cryptos or revenue sources, or applying blockchain in practice, here are what this episode suggests:
- Due diligence on tokenomics is crucial. Large unlock schedules, vesting, buyback designs can make or break real returns. Even a strong narrative (like HYPE’s) can be offset by heavy supply pressure.
- Momentum and buzz are useful, but not sufficient. Hayes’s prediction, large volume growth, all-time highs, institutional interest help, but technicals and supply risks can alter trajectories rather quickly.
- Competition in DeFi / DEX / derivatives is intensifying. New platforms (like ASTER) can erode market share, or present better features. If you pick a project, compare with what’s being built now, not just what’s already established.
- Short-term risk vs long-term vision. Some investors may put up with volatility if they believe in multi-year upside (like Hayes still does), but others less patient or less risk tolerant will want clearer signals (strong support, low unlock pressure, solid revenue inflows).
- Practical revenue from DeFi platforms still often depends on volumes (trade fees, derivatives, etc.), stablecoin activity, integration with broader ecosystems (e.g. stablecoin integrations, Layer-1 or EVM compatibility, etc.). These are positive signs for Hyperliquid, but are not guarantees.
8. What Might Happen Next (Scenarios)
Here are plausible scenarios given current facts:
| Scenario | What Happens | Timeframe & Key Triggers |
|---|---|---|
| Bearish scenario | Continued price decline, tests of support around US$40; downward pressure from unlocks, weak demand, negative technicals. Traders may start selling into weakness. | Between November 2025 (unlock begins) through 1-2 quarters afterward. If unlock flows > demand, price under pressure. |
| Base case | HYPE stabilizes in US$50-US$60 range, absorbs some supply, buybacks help, modest growth, but no huge parabolic run until maybe so-called “long term” (2027-2028). | Over the next 3-12 months, depending on whether ecosystems deepen, usage increases, institutional interest sustains. |
| Bullish scenario | Strong adoption, maybe a competitor falters, demand (trading, derivatives, stablecoins) rises enough; price holds above major supports; macro environment favorable; tokenomics partially mitigated (buybacks, demand). Could see re-acceleration toward Hayes’s 126× (though that is very ambitious). | From late 2025 through 2028, contingent on delivery of product, ecosystem growth, favorable regulation, etc. |
Final Thoughts
Arthur Hayes’s sale of his HYPE position just weeks after a highly public prediction is a cautionary but instructive moment. It highlights that even insider confidence is tempered by real-economic constraints: tokenomics, supply schedules, competition, and market sentiment.
For practitioners hunting for new crypto assets or revenue sources, the story of HYPE shows the following:
- Always map out not just what the token can do, but how its supply enters the market over time, what demand drivers will be sustained, who else is building similarly, and how macro and regulatory conditions might stress or support the project.
- A strong technical setup (good charts, rising volume, institutional cred) can give you entry points, but risks often cluster around known dates (unlock, vesting, competitive launch dates, regulatory deadlines).
- If you believe in long-term return (3 years+), projects like HYPE with ambitious growth potential may be worth a calculated exposure — but you should plan for volatility, possible retracements, and structural risks.
- For real usage, look at revenue generation (trade fees, derivatives volume, stablecoin integrations), developer incentives, ecosystem expansion, and whether the roadmap is credible.
Conclusion
While the 126× forecast for HYPE is bold, it remains a long-term vision with many moving parts. Hayes’s exit—though profitable—underscores that even those who believe strongly must manage risk. The key will be how Hyperliquid handles its token unlocks starting in late 2025, whether demand grows enough to absorb new supply, and how competition evolves. For those exploring new cryptos, HYPE offers both promise and caution: a case study in how strong narrative, rising volumes, and bold vision must be matched by sustainable tokenomics and resilient market structure.
