Main Points：
- Bullish Outlook: Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes maintains that if the Federal Reserve shifts from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE), Bitcoin could bottom out at around $76,500 last month and rally to $250,000 by the end of 2025.
- Fiat Supply and Technology: Hayes argues that Bitcoin’s valuation is driven primarily by market expectations regarding the future supply of fiat currency, with its technical fundamentals remaining stable.
- Fed Policy Shift: He emphasizes that if the Fed reinitiates QE, it will lower interest rates and flood the market with dollars, fueling a strong upward pressure on Bitcoin.
- Alternative Views: Although some forecasts remain cautious—with decentralized prediction market Polymarket giving only a 9% probability for a $250K target—Hayes’s analysis is based on historical precedents and current monetary policy trends.
- Additional Considerations: Hayes also notes that even if Bitcoin faces a short-term drop to around $76,500, similar to its historical patterns, a robust recovery is more likely to occur than a prolonged decline.
1. A Bold Forecast Amid Uncertain Times
In his latest analysis, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX and Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, reiterated his bullish outlook for Bitcoin. According to Hayes, if the Federal Reserve pivots from its current policy of quantitative tightening to a more accommodative quantitative easing stance, the market will see Bitcoin bottom out at approximately $76,500. Following this, he predicts that Bitcoin could rally dramatically, reaching as high as $250,000 by the end of 2025.
2. The Role of Fed Policy and Fiat Supply
Hayes contends that Bitcoin’s valuation is largely determined by market expectations regarding the future supply of fiat money. “Bitcoin is traded almost entirely on the market’s expectations of future fiat supply,” he explained in a blog post published on April 1, 2025. Should the Federal Reserve reverse its course from QT to QE, lower interest rates and increased liquidity would create strong upward pressure on Bitcoin, driving its price toward the $250K target.
3. Historical Context and Technical Considerations
Hayes supports his forecast by pointing to historical instances when Bitcoin experienced corrections before rallying. He notes that similar to past events—such as the brief crisis earlier this year—if the Fed’s policy shift materializes, Bitcoin’s downward pressure would ease, paving the way for a significant recovery. Moreover, he suggests that while there remains a possibility for Bitcoin to dip further to around $76,500, the likelihood is that it will rebound before any prolonged downtrend occurs.
4. Divergent Market Views
Despite Hayes’s strong bullish forecast, market sentiment remains mixed. For instance, decentralized prediction market Polymarket indicates only a 9% probability that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2025, while 64% of participants foresee a rally to around $110,000 and 62% expect it could drop to around $70,000. Additionally, concerns persist that if Trump’s tariff measures lead to heightened inflation, the Federal Reserve might reverse course and raise rates further, complicating the outlook for Bitcoin.
5. Monitoring Key Economic Indicators
Arthur Hayes’s analysis underscores a bold outlook for Bitcoin, driven by anticipated Fed easing that would bolster liquidity and lower interest rates. While his forecast hinges on a significant policy pivot, investors should remain vigilant and monitor upcoming U.S. economic indicators and Fed policy announcements, which could either reinforce or derail the bullish scenario. Despite divergent market views, Hayes firmly believes that Bitcoin’s long-term potential remains robust in an environment where fiat supply continues to expand.
