Anchoring for New Heights: Decoding the Bullish Signal of Record Bitcoin Long-Term Holders

Main Points:

• Record Long-Term Holder Supply: Long-term holders (LTHs) now control a historic 14.46 million BTC, representing roughly 73% of circulating supply.
• Defining Smart Money: LTHs are investors holding BTC for at least 155 days, often buying dips and selling peaks.
• March–June Accumulation vs. Short-Term Selling: From March to June 2025, LTHs added ≈500 k BTC while short-term holders (STHs) sold ≈350 k BTC, tightening net supply.
• June Seasonality & Turning Point: Historical June performance shows modest median gains (+2.58%); recent price action tests key support but a seasonal rebound is plausible.
• Bullish Catalysts: Supply shock, post-halving issuance cuts, mounting institutional inflows via ETFs, and macro hedge narratives underpin upside.
• Risk Considerations: Profit-taking by seasoned holders, rising rates, regulatory headwinds, and network scaling challenges could cap gains.
• Investor Takeaways: Implement dollar-cost averaging, maintain strict risk management, diversify beyond BTC, and avoid emotional trading.

1. The Significance of Record LTH Supply

In early June 2025, on-chain analytics from Glassnode revealed that Bitcoin long-term holders—those wallets unchanged for at least 155 days—have amassed an unprecedented 14.46 million BTC, equivalent to roughly 73% of the total circulating supply of 19.88 million BTC. This milestone underscores a profound shift in market structure: seasoned investors are choosing to hold rather than sell, signaling broad confidence in future price appreciation. Historically, each prior all-time high in LTH supply has preceded major Bitcoin price rallies, as reduced available supply intensifies upward pressure when buying resumes.

2. Understanding Long-Term Holders: The “Smart Money”

Long-term holders (LTHs) are defined as market participants whose coins have remained dormant for at least 155 days, a threshold established through empirical analysis to distinguish conviction investors from short-term speculators. These LTHs, often labeled the market’s “smart money,” exhibit patterns of buying during periods of fear and selling amid greed, effectively smoothing their cost basis over time. In contrast, short-term holders (STHs) move more erratically, reacting swiftly to volatility. The rising share of LTH-held supply therefore indicates that a large segment of investors anticipate further gains and are less likely to capitulate during pullbacks.

3. March–June 2025: Accumulation vs. Distribution

Between March and June 2025, LTHs bolstered their positions by adding approximately 500 000 BTC, while STHs offloaded around 350 000 BTC into the market. This net 150 000 BTC stock removal reflects a tightening of available Bitcoin, as fewer coins circulate for trading. The accumulation trend aligns with earlier bullish signals: the market’s Optimized Trend Tracker (OTT) bounced from around $100 000, and LTH confidence grew after weathering a 30% correction from the January peak near $109 000.

4. June Seasonality: A Potential Turning Point

June has historically provided mild support for Bitcoin, delivering a median monthly return of +2.58% since inception. This seasonality suggests that once key support zones hold—namely the $103 700 (95th-percentile acquisition cost) and $95 600 (85th-percentile) levels—buyers tend to reenter, driven by seasonal portfolios rebalancing and institutional window dressing. Despite an initial sell-off by LTHs after the mid-May all-time high of $111 800, historical data points to a likely rebound if macro factors remain favorable and demand persists.

5. Bullish Catalysts on the Horizon

Several tailwinds underpin the bullish case for Bitcoin:

• Supply Shock Intensifies: With 73% of supply locked in LTH wallets, on-chain liquidity is tightening, amplifying any incremental buying.
• Post-Halving Scarcity: The 2024 block reward halving cut new issuance by 50%, further constraining newly minted supply.
• Institutional ETF Flows: Bitcoin spot ETFs have continued to attract capital, with net inflows accelerating despite market volatility, reflecting institutional desire for crypto exposure via regulated vehicles.
• Macro Hedge Appeal: In the face of elevated U.S. federal debt and potential fiscal stimulus, Bitcoin’s fixed supply profile cements its narrative as a digital hedge akin to “digital gold.”

6. Risk Factors to Monitor

While the bullish framework is compelling, investors must remain vigilant:

• Deferred Profit-Taking: Seasoned holders, emboldened by multi-year gains, may liquidate parts of their stash at these heights, as witnessed when Bitcoin briefly touched $111 800 in early June.
• Monetary Policy Tightening: Rising interest rates could dampen risk appetite, pressuring crypto and equity markets alike.
• Regulatory Uncertainty: Increased scrutiny from global regulators—whether concerning ESG impacts of mining or stricter KYC/AML mandates—could introduce headwinds.
• Technical Scaling Challenges: Network congestion and environmental debates persist, potentially hampering broader adoption without robust layer-2 and sustainability solutions.

7. Practical Lessons for Crypto Investors

The current market cycle offers instructive takeaways for both newcomers and veterans:

1. Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): Systematic periodic purchases mitigate timing risks and capitalize on volatility.
2. Emotion Management: Avoid trading on FOMO or panic; build a clear plan with predefined entry and exit strategies.
3. Risk Allocation: Limit exposure to high-volatility assets; use only surplus capital distinct from essential living funds.
4. Continuing Education: Stay informed through on-chain analytics, reputable research, and regulatory updates.
5. Diversification: Allocate across multiple crypto assets and traditional investments to balance potential returns and drawdowns.

8. Conclusion: A Maturing Market Landscape

The surge in Bitcoin long-term holder supply to an all-time high of 14.46 million BTC signifies a market transitioning from speculative frenzy to strategic accumulation. With LTHs commanding 73% of circulating supply and seasonal factors favoring June rebounds, the stage is set for renewed bullish momentum. Yet, vigilance around profit-taking, macroeconomic shifts, and regulatory developments remains essential. Ultimately, the enduring lesson is that disciplined, long-term conviction—emulated by today’s record-breaking LTH cohort—may unlock the next phase of Bitcoin’s ascent, as the ecosystem continues to mature and integrate with the broader financial system.