Main Points:
- Long-term altcoin market cap breakout beyond historical uptrend line
- Bear trap completion suggests renewed upward momentum
- Chart structure resembles past bull runs (2016–2018) signaling possible “Pump 2.0”
- Altcoin market cap now around $1.28 trillion with resistance at $1.3 trillion in sight
- Diverging analyst views: “now or never” altseason vs. historical halving cycles
- Institutional inflows and macro factors supporting altcoin growth
Long-Term Breakout Beyond Uptrend Line
Renowned trader Merlijn “The Trader” (@MerlijnTrader) pointed out on July 6, 2025, that the total altcoin market capitalization has decisively surpassed a long-term rising trend line—one that preceded the 2017 and 2021 bull runs. According to his X (formerly Twitter) chart, altcoin market cap retested and reclaimed this trend line, completing what he terms a “bear trap.” Such a pattern, historically followed by sharp vertical rallies, is considered a critical bullish reversal signal that could trigger a broad-based altcoin surge in the coming weeks.
Merlijn:
“A bear trap has completed. Altcoins are breaking above the trend line just as in 2017 and 2021. Next up: a powerful, vertical move across the market. Don’t miss it.”
This breakout indicates a shift in market sentiment: from skepticism to renewed confidence, potentially attracting both retail and institutional buyers who have been on the sidelines.
Historical Chart Patterns: Echoes of 2016–2018
Merlijn further highlighted that the current structure of the altcoin market cap chart mirrors the 2016–2018 cycle:
- Descending wedge formation
- Breakout above the wedge
- Parabolic expansion phase
He warns that this time, the pattern is unfolding on a larger time frame, hinting at an even more substantial move—what some analysts are calling “Pump 2.0.” .
“Notice the identical structure? Descending wedge → breakout → parabolic growth. We’ve seen this before. Pump 2.0 is coming.”
Such fractal-like repetition often attracts momentum traders seeking to ride the early phase of major trends, amplifying price action through leveraged positions.
Current Altcoin Market Capitalization Trends
Recent data show the total cryptocurrency market cap at approximately $3.44 trillion, with Bitcoin dominance at 62.84%. This implies an altcoin market cap of roughly $1.28 trillion (37.16% of the total). A breakout above the $1.3 trillion level—previous resistance dating back to late 2021—would mark a psychological and technical milestone, potentially unlocking fresh capital flows into non-Bitcoin assets.
Below is a simplified monthly trend of the altcoin market cap in 2025:
. Key drivers include:
- Institutional ETFs and Index Products: New altcoin-focused ETFs are under consideration by asset managers, broadening access for traditional investors.
- DeFi and Layer-2 Adoption: Continued migration to Ethereum L2s, Polygon, and other scaling solutions is fueling utility-driven demand for alt tokens.
- Tokenization of Real-World Assets (RWA): Asset tokenization platforms are increasingly launching on alt networks, bridging traditional finance and crypto.
These factors, coupled with retail FOMO (fear of missing out) as bullish chart patterns emerge, could accelerate capital rotation into altcoins.
Divergent Analyst Perspectives
While several experts foresee an imminent altseason, opinions vary on timing and magnitude:
- Mikael van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) asserted in June that altseason has already begun, noting that periods of low market attention often precede explosive rallies.
- Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) cautions that past alt seasons followed Bitcoin halvings in precedent years (2017, 2021). With Bitcoin’s next halving expected in mid-2024, Cowen anticipates a delayed but possibly larger alt season toward 2025–2026.
Thus, although chart signals point to immediate upside, fundamental analysts advise aligning trading strategies with macro events like halvings and institutional product approvals.
Key Altcoins to Watch
Building on current market dynamics, the top altcoins by market cap likely to lead any new surge include:
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Network upgrades (Proto-Danksharding) are boosting scalability and fee efficiency.
- Solana (SOL)
- High throughput dApps driving on-chain activity.
- Polygon (MATIC)
- Expanding DeFi and gaming ecosystem on a robust L2.
- Avalanche (AVAX)
- Subnet model attracting specialized financial protocols.
- Layer-Zero Projects (e.g., Aptos, Sui)
- New chains with novel consensus mechanisms gaining traction.
Investors should also monitor mid-cap altcoins showing improved fundamentals—on-chain metrics like active addresses and developer activity—to capture emerging opportunities early.
Conclusion
The altcoin market’s decisive break above its long-term uptrend line, reinforced by a completed bear trap, signals a likely bullish reversal. Historical chart analogies suggest the onset of a powerful, parabolic phase reminiscent of 2016–2018 cycles. With the altcoin market cap hovering near $1.28 trillion and poised to clear $1.3 trillion resistance, technical momentum aligns with macro drivers—DeFi growth, institutional inflows, and tokenization trends—to support a robust altseason. Diverging opinions on timing underscore the importance of blending technical signals with broader events like Bitcoin halvings. For investors scouting new crypto assets and practical blockchain applications, the coming weeks may offer prime entry points before any broader market acceleration.
