Main Points:
- Long-term holders (LTHs) have added 635,340 BTC since January, boosting their total supply to over 13.75 million BTC.
- Short-term holders (STHs) have offloaded 468,896 BTC over the same period, highlighting a transfer of supply.
- On-chain metrics show an LTH-to-STH accumulation ratio of 1.38 BTC for every 1 BTC sold by STHs.
- Approximately 2.6 million BTC remain underwater, down from a peak of 5 million BTC earlier this month.
- Recent on-chain reports indicate renewed LTH conviction, with over 250,000 BTC added since March.
- Macro catalysts—including ETF inflows and tariff relief optimism—are underpinning renewed accumulation pressures.
- Institutional participation and maturing market structures signal a shift toward more resilient, practice-oriented blockchain use cases.
LTH Accumulation and Market Phases
Since the Bitcoin price bottomed in January, data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that Long-Term Holders—defined as investors who have held BTC for at least 155 days—have collectively increased their holdings by 635,340 BTC, bringing their total to 13,755,722 BTC. This cohort typically accumulates during periods of market weakness and distributes during phases of strength, making their behavior a reliable indicator of broader investor sentiment. The fact that LTHs are continuing to buy into weakness underscores their conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.
Historically, LTH activity has served as the backbone of Bitcoin’s bull runs. During the 2017 cycle, for example, LTHs began significant distribution only after prices breached key psychological and technical levels around $10,000–$12,000. Today, with Bitcoin trading above $90,000, the sustained accumulation by LTHs suggests they view any pullback below recent highs as a buying opportunity rather than a trigger for profit-taking.
STH Profit-Taking and Supply Redistribution
Contrasting the conviction of LTHs, Short-Term Holders—those with coins held for under 155 days—have relinquished 468,896 BTC since January. Their total supply has shrunk to 3,516,265 BTC. This divergence in behavior illustrates a classic transfer of supply from more price-sensitive STHs to longer-term, price-insensitive holders. As STHs realize gains or cut losses—especially coins bought in the $65,000–$95,000 range in late 2024—LTHs are stepping in to absorb that supply, reinforcing the emerging bull thesis.
On a granular level, each 1 BTC sold by STHs has been matched by an accumulation of 1.38 BTC by LTHs, representing an LTH-to-STH accumulation ratio of 1.38:1. This metric not only quantifies the supply shift, but also serves as a barometer for market health: the higher the ratio, the more conviction exists among longer-term investors.
On-Chain Metrics Highlight Renewed Conviction
Recent weekly reports from Glassnode reveal that since the start of March, LTHs have continued their buying spree, adding over 250,000 BTC, which has pushed their aggregate holdings above 14 million BTC. This fresh tranche of accumulation coincides with Bitcoin’s rebound above the $90,000 mark after a brief dip earlier in Q2, signaling that conviction is returning even after a 30% drawdown from the January peak of $109,000.
A key metric illustrating this dynamic is the Accumulation Trend Score, which remains positive for LTHs despite short-term volatility. Furthermore, on-chain supply distribution charts show that large clusters of coins acquired in the $95,000–$98,000 range are now aging beyond 155 days, effectively graduating into the LTH cohort. This migration not only bolsters the LTH supply but also reduces the risk of sudden, large-scale sell-offs by newer investors.
Underwater Supply and Profitability Dynamics
Despite the bullish accumulation by LTHs, the market still holds about 2.6 million BTC in an underwater state—coins currently valued below their purchase price. This represents a significant decline from the 5 million BTC peak of unrealized losses seen earlier in May. The reduction in underwater supply suggests that a substantial portion of the market has moved back into profitability, relieving selling pressure and setting the stage for renewed upward momentum.
Notably, most of the remaining underwater coins were purchased at Bitcoin’s all-time high of $109,000 in January. The fact that many of these high-cost basis holders are choosing to hold through the current consolidation phase demonstrates a deep-seated belief in Bitcoin’s longer-term thesis—and provides a robust base of “HODL” support at higher price levels.
Macro Catalysts and Institutional Participation
Beyond on-chain signals, several macro-level catalysts are reinforcing the accumulation narrative:
- ETF Inflows: Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have remained consistent, with over $1.5 billion injected in April alone, according to ETF monitoring services. These inflows reflect growing institutional demand and help underpin price stability.
- Tariff Relief Optimism: Easing U.S.-China tariff tensions have alleviated broader market uncertainty, allowing risk assets like Bitcoin to outperform.
- Regulatory Clarity: As jurisdictions refine crypto regulations—particularly in the U.S., U.K., and parts of Asia—institutional investors gain confidence to allocate capital at scale.
- Maturing Infrastructure: Advances in custody solutions, decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, and layer-2 scaling have improved the practical utility of blockchain networks, attracting pragmatic users seeking real-world applications.
These factors, combined with the steadfast behavior of LTHs, create an environment where accumulation pressures outweigh short-term volatility, fostering a more resilient market structure.
Implications for Investors and Practical Blockchain Use Cases
The ongoing supply transfer from STHs to LTHs carries several implications for different investor profiles and blockchain applications:
- Long-Term Investors: Those aiming to accumulate Bitcoin at scale should consider scale-in strategies during volatility, taking cues from LTH behavior.
- Active Traders: The narrowing of underwater supply and the consolidation of LTH support suggest tighter trading ranges, where technical strategies around breakouts and support tests may be fruitful.
- DeFi Practitioners: As institutional and long-term capital flows stabilize, DeFi protocols offering yield opportunities (e.g., lending, staking) may see enhanced liquidity and reduced risk of flash borrow attacks.
- Enterprise Adopters: Companies exploring blockchain for payments, supply chain, or tokenization can leverage improved network reliability and deeper liquidity to launch production-grade solutions.
- Regulated Entities: VASPs and financial institutions can highlight the maturing on-chain data environment to satisfy compliance requirements for transparency and proof of reserve.
Conclusion
The sustained accumulation by Long-Term Bitcoin Holders—evidenced by 635,340 BTC added since January and over 250,000 BTC since March—underscores a robust conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. With an LTH-to-STH accumulation ratio of 1.38:1, a shrinking pool of underwater supply, and supportive macro catalysts ranging from ETF inflows to regulatory clarity, the market appears poised for a continuation of the broader bull trend. For investors and practitioners, this supply shift suggests that strategic accumulation during dips, coupled with a focus on practical blockchain deployments, may yield compelling opportunities in the months ahead.
