Main Points:
- Early May sees Bitcoin surge from ¥12.24 million (＄84,186) to over ¥14.07 million (＄96,773), maintaining strength after April lows.
- Technical indicators suggest robust uptrend, with old resistance at ¥14 million (＄96,292) now acting as support.
- Institutional adoption accelerates: Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury bets bolster demand.
- Macro factors—Fed policy, token unlocks, and geopolitical risks—shape near‑term outlook.
- Through Japan’s Golden Week until May 6, subdued volatility likely; post‑holiday catalysts may drive next leg.
1. Introduction: A Strong Start to May
Bitcoin opened May at ¥12,240,795 (＄84,192) and rallied to a recent high of ¥14,145,806 (＄97,295) on May 2, 2025, before settling around ¥14,074,638 (＄96,805). This early‑month strength follows a clear uptrend from April’s low of ¥10,815,666 (＄74,390) on April 6, indicating renewed bullish momentum as traders anticipate post–Golden Week developments in both domestic and global markets.
2. Market Performance in Early May
On the 1‑hour chart as of May 2, 07:27 JST, Bitcoin’s price action reveals a decisive break above the psychological ¥14 million (＄96,292) barrier, previously a strong resistance line. The transition of that level into a support zone underscores buyers’ confidence. Over the 24 hours preceding May 1, BTC/JPY saw trading volumes climb by roughly 18%, mirroring increased activity on major exchanges such as Binance (24h volume $1.87 billion) and signaling robust participation.
3. Technical Analysis: Indicators Point Upward
- Trend Structure: After bouncing off the ¥10.8 million (＄74,282) bottom on April 6, Bitcoin formed higher highs and higher lows, confirming an uptrend. The breakout above ¥14 million (＄96,292) on multiple hourly candles emphasizes strong bull control.
- Support & Resistance: The former resistance at ¥14 million (＄96,292) now provides a solid support cushion; a drop below this level could trigger a pullback toward ¥13.5 million (＄92,853).
- Momentum Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stands at 62, below the overbought threshold, suggesting room for further gains before a corrective phase.
- Volume Profile: Sustained high trading volume during price advances indicates genuine demand rather than thin‑market spikes.
4. Institutional Adoption and Corporate Bets
Institutional involvement has surged since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs 15 months ago. According to Axios, Bitcoin’s market share dominance hit 64%—its highest since 2021—reflecting institutions’ preference for BTC over altcoins. Meanwhile, corporate treasuries continue to allocate BTC: MicroStrategy (rebranded “Strategy”) upped its 2025 BTC value target from $10 billion (＄68,780) to $15 billion (＄103,170), despite recent earnings misses, based on holdings of 553,555 BTC at an average cost of $68,459. This institutional demand underpins price stability and sets a firm foundation for long‑term growth.
5. Macro and On‑Chain Drivers
- Federal Reserve Outlook: With Fed minutes due mid‑May and inflation data scheduled later in the month, traders watch for dovish signals that could rekindle risk appetite.
- Token Unlocks & Network Upgrades: Several altcoin unlocks and Ethereum protocol updates are slated, which historically shift capital flows into Bitcoin as a safe‑haven during periods of network uncertainty.
- On‑Chain Metrics: Glassnode reports a rising hash rate—over 620 EH/s—illustrating miners’ confidence in future price appreciation. Additionally, open interest on major derivatives exchanges has spiked, hinting at heightened volatility ahead.
6. Golden Week Impact and Near‑Term Outlook
In Japan, trading volume typically dips during Golden Week (April 29–May 6). This year appears no different; price movements have been orderly, with narrow daily ranges. With holidays ending May 6, expect a return of liquidity and potential for breakout moves as global markets resume full activity. Key levels to watch:
- Upside: ¥15 million (＄103,170) area, corresponding to former August 2024 highs.
- Downside: ¥14 million (＄96,292) support, then ¥13.5 million (＄92,853).
7. Conclusion and Investment Considerations
Bitcoin’s early‑May performance confirms a sustained bull trend, bolstered by both retail enthusiasm and deepening institutional adoption. Technical indicators reveal room for further gains, while macro‑economic and on‑chain dynamics continue to favor BTC accumulation. As Golden Week liquidity returns, traders should monitor breakout or breakdown around the ¥14 million (＄96,292)–¥15 million (＄103,170) range. Market participants must remain vigilant: sudden policy shifts or unexpected global events can trigger rapid adjustments. Investors are advised to set prudent stop losses, manage position sizes, and stay attuned to regulatory developments, particularly concerning ETFs and banking integration, to navigate the next phase of Bitcoin’s evolution.
