Main Points:
- A dormant 2015 ICO whale with a cost basis of $0.31 per ETH sold 3,000 ETH on April 17, 2025, and transferred an additional 6,000 ETH to a new address, signaling potential further sell-offs.
- Whales have offloaded a cumulative 143,000 ETH over one week, with major institutional players like Galaxy Digital depositing 49,681 ETH into Binance and Coinbase.
- Contrarily, two wallets dormant for 949 days spent $12.37 million in DAI to acquire 7,738 ETH on April 18, underscoring opportunistic buying.
- Analysts identify key support zones at $1,457 and $1,598 based on cost basis clusters, offering potential stabilization levels.
- Upcoming network upgrades such as the Prague/Electra (Pectra) upgrade in May 2025 and PeerDAS in 2026 promise enhanced blob throughput and scalability, potentially catalyzing long‑term growth.
- Competitive pressures from layer‑1 networks like Solana and Sui, with superior data availability and lower fees, represent significant headwinds for Ethereum.
Massive Whale Sell-Offs Shake the Market
On April 17, 2025, a long‑dormant Ethereum ICO whale triggered a wave of market volatility by offloading a substantial portion of its holdings. This investor, who originally acquired approximately 76,000 ETH during the 2015 ICO at an astonishingly low price of $0.31 per ETH, resumed activity after three years of dormancy. At 9:45 AM UTC, the whale transferred 6,000 ETH valued at roughly $9.55 million to a fresh wallet address, raising market eyebrows about imminent sell‑pressure. Merely one hour later, the same whale deposited 3,000 ETH (approximately $4.78 million) into Kraken, a move widely interpreted as a direct sell order. The immediate consequence was a swift price dip from $1,593 to $1,575 within forty‑five minutes, underscoring the outsized influence that large holders can exert on Ethereum’s spot market.
Such concentrated sell-offs not only exacerbate short‑term price declines but also erode trader confidence. On‑chain data sources reveal that wallets holding 100–1,000 ETH collectively reduced their balances by 143,100 ETH between April 9 and April 14, signifying a broad wave of profit‑taking among medium‑sized holders as well . The confluence of these large and mid‑sized sell‑offs has propelled a surge in trading volume, as investors rush to exit positions ahead of further declines. With Ethereum now trading around the $1,600 mark, market participants are on edge, uncertain whether more high‑net‑worth holders plan to follow suit.
Institutional Offloading and Broader Sell-Offs
Beyond individual whales, institutional investors are also shedding Ethereum, amplifying downward pressure. Over the past week, major institutions such as Galaxy Digital have funneled substantial ETH holdings onto centralized exchanges. Lookonchain data indicates that Galaxy Digital deposited 49,681 ETH (approximately $79.37 million) into Binance and Coinbase across five days. This strategic offloading by a leading market maker reflects a broader risk‑off sentiment as macroeconomic headwinds persist.
ChainCatcher confirms that a cumulative 143,000 ETH, valued at roughly $230 million at current prices, has been sold by whales over the same period. The sell‑off has coincided with weak net inflows into Ethereum spot ETFs in the United States. Only one trading day in April registered a modest $2.1 million inflow, while redemptions dominated the rest, resulting in nearly $1 billion in outflows over the last 40 days. These ETF flows mirror retail and institutional reactions, further straining liquidity and driving prices downward.
Moreover, Wintermute’s April 14 report highlights Bitcoin’s growing resilience relative to Ethereum amid this downturn. As Bitcoin absorbed market shocks more effectively, Ethereum’s relative underperformance has underscored the need for fresh catalysts. Without positive developments, Ethereum may continue to lag Bitcoin in both price performance and perceived market utility.
Opportunistic Dormant Wallets Return
Contrary to the widespread sell‑off, opportunistic buyers have been quietly accumulating Ethereum. On April 18, 2025, two wallets that had lain dormant for 949 days reactivated to execute a significant on‑chain purchase. These entities spent $12.37 million in DAI to acquire 7,738 ETH at an average price of $1,599 per ETH. Remarkably, one of the wallets channeled a portion of the purchased ETH into Tornado Cash, a privacy‑focused mixing service, indicating sophistication in managing transaction privacy.
This sudden reentry by long‑inactive wallets suggests strategic positioning ahead of anticipated market catalysts. Dormant addresses reactivating to buy ETH behaves as a contrarian indicator, hinting that some investors regard current prices as a buying opportunity. Historically, such patterns have preceded short‑term rallies, particularly when coordinated with major network upgrades or regulatory developments.
These acquisitions also highlight the dual nature of Ethereum’s market dynamics: while large holders unload for profits, seasoned investors with long‑released capital seize the chance to increase exposure at lower prices. Whether these dormant purchasers will hold or flip depends on forthcoming developments, but their activity has at least momentarily buoyed sentiment.
Technical Outlook: Upcoming Upgrades
Ethereum’s long‑term narrative remains anchored to its roadmap of technical enhancements aimed at scaling and security. The next milestone is the Prague/Electra upgrade, colloquially known as “Pectra,” scheduled for mainnet activation in May 2025. This upgrade bundles eleven Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs), focusing predominantly on staking optimizations and data availability improvements.
A pivotal element of Pectra is doubling the blob throughput—data packets used by rollups—from three blobs (384 KB) to six blobs (768 KB), effectively doubling L2 capacity and increasing baseline transaction throughput from approximately 210 TPS to 420 TPS under standard assumptions. Fidelity Digital Assets notes that such enhancements will extend existing Layer‑2 ecosystems’ runway and accommodate new L2 deployments until the subsequent PeerDAS upgrade in 2026.
PeerDAS, the next transformational upgrade slated for 2026, promises to revolutionize Ethereum’s data availability by enabling nodes to process significantly larger blob counts, potentially up to nine blobs per slot, and thereby solidifying Ethereum’s ability to support exponential transaction growth without compromising decentralization. However, developers caution that full node clients may require several years to adapt to handle such volumes efficiently, and widespread demand must sustain for these optimizations to yield maximum benefit.
Competitive Landscape and Support Zones
Ethereum operates within a fiercely competitive environment, with alternative L1 blockchains such as Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI) capturing market share through higher throughput, lower fees, and specialized data availability models. Fidelity’s analysis emphasizes that while Ethereum prioritizes security and decentralization, some competitors offer superior raw performance metrics and may attract developers and users seeking lower transaction costs or novel features.
Supportive evidence emerges in TVL and revenue figures. Solana’s TVL and network revenue have grown at a faster rate than Ethereum’s over the past year, illustrating how performance‑centric blockchains can erode Ethereum’s dominance in specific niches. Meanwhile, data availability chains like Celestia tout even larger block sizes and shorter block times, representing potential game‑changers for DA‑heavy applications.
From a price‑technical perspective, cost basis distribution charts reveal that short‑term support for Ethereum lies near the $1,457 and $1,598 zones, where significant volumes of ETH were last moved by buyers and are unlikely to be sold at a loss. These levels have the potential to absorb selling pressure, offering traders reference points for entries and exits. The $1,546 zone, representing large clustered investments by medium‑sized holders, may act as an interim support if prices continue to retrace.
Ethereum finds itself at a pivotal juncture, buffeted by large‑scale whale sell‑offs and institutional offloading, yet buoyed by opportunistic purchases and a robust upgrade roadmap. The mass sell‑off of 143,000 ETH within a week, led by a reactivated ICO whale and augmented by Galaxy Digital’s strategic deposits, underscores the fragility of market sentiment. Against this backdrop, two long‑dormant wallets’ acquisition of 7,738 ETH signals enduring confidence among certain market participants.
As traders navigate key support levels between $1,457 and $1,598, the impending Pectra and PeerDAS upgrades loom as critical catalysts for scaling and network utility. Nonetheless, Ethereum’s ability to outcompete emerging L1s and satisfy scaling demands remains uncertain. Investors must weigh security and decentralization benefits against throughput limitations and heightened competition.
In the coming months, on‑chain metrics, upgrade adoption rates, and macroeconomic conditions will collectively shape Ethereum’s trajectory. Market participants should monitor whale flows, ETF movements, and competitive developments closely, as they offer insights into Ethereum’s ability to maintain its position as the leading smart contract platform. Whether Ethereum can transform technical potential into sustainable growth will determine if current sell‑offs become a buying opportunity or herald a protracted downturn.
