Main Points :
- Bitcoin has traded in a narrow range between ¥10.82M (＄75,783) and ¥13.38M (＄93,713), closing where it began, reflecting market indecision.
- Key resistance at ¥13.38M (＄93,713) and support at ¥10.82M (＄75,783) mark boundaries that, if broken, could spark strong directional moves.
- Despite equity sell‑offs driven by Trump’s tariff announcements, Bitcoin has decoupled, showing muted volatility amid political noise.
- Broader macro drivers—including U.S. tariff policy shifts, dollar weakness, and strategic reserve initiatives—are reshaping crypto sentiment.
- On‑chain fundamentals like Lightning Network growth and institutional adoption continue to provide tangible utility and new revenue avenues.
- Traders familiar with “Trump‐driven” market swings are displaying resilience, signaling a maturing crypto ecosystem.
Chart Snapshot and Price Thresholds
From April 5 through April 17, Bitcoin’s hourly JPY chart shows an opening price of ¥11,995,000 (＄84,012), a high of ¥13,378,048 (＄93,699), a low of ¥10,817,149 (＄75,763), and a closing price matching the open at ¥11,995,000 (＄84,012). This complete retracement to the start price demonstrates a market stuck in equilibrium, with bulls and bears locked in a tug‑of‑war. The ¥13.38M (＄93,713) level has acted as a formidable resistance line, capping rallies, while the ¥10.82M (＄75,783) zone has provided critical support. Traders will watch closely to see whether a decisive break above or below these levels triggers a fresh leg up or intensifies bearish momentum.
Political Headwinds and Market Reaction
Bitcoin’s reaction to U.S. tariff policy has been increasingly muted. Early April saw President Trump impose tariffs and market volatility ensued, but when he paused tariffs on non‑retaliating countries for 90 days, crypto markets barely flinched—Bitcoin’s sideways action speaks to growing trader desensitization to headline risk. Meanwhile, Bitwise highlighted that Trump’s pursuit of a weaker dollar is broadly bullish for Bitcoin, given its historical negative correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index. This suggests that, despite the theatrics of trade negotiations, Bitcoin is carving out its own price path, increasingly driven by macro factors rather than short‑term political skirmishes.
Technical Resistance and Support Analysis
Technically, the high at ¥13,378,048 (＄93,699) has been tested twice without a successful breakout, establishing it as a strong resistance barrier. On the downside, the ¥10,817,149 (＄75,763) level has held firm, confirming buyer interest around that area. A push above ¥13.38M (＄93,713) would likely catalyze an influx of momentum traders targeting higher psychological levels around ¥14M (＄98,055)–¥15M (＄105,059). Conversely, a decisive breach below ¥10.82M (＄75,783) could trigger stop‑loss cascades, risking a rapid descent toward the next support in the ¥9M (＄63,035) range. Additionally, the intermediate level at ¥12,526,510 (＄87,735), which acted as a temporary pivot, could become a battleground for bulls and bears vying for short‑term control.
Broader Macro and On‑Chain Fundamentals
Beyond the chart, several developments are underpinning Bitcoin’s fundamental case. Earlier this month, President Trump signed a resolution rescinding the IRS’s broker‑reporting rule for DeFi platforms, marking a landmark pro‑crypto victory and removing a major regulatory overhang for decentralized finance projects. Simultaneously, institutional allocations to Bitcoin reached record highs in Q1 2025, as noted in CoinDesk’s market analysis report, highlighting that institutional buyers are cementing Bitcoin’s role as digital gold. Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s remark that renewed tariffs could hasten rate cuts added another bullish twist, stoking hopes for looser monetary policy and reinforcing Bitcoin’s appeal as an inflation hedge .
Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Regulatory Tailwinds
In a surprising policy move, the White House announced plans for a “strategic bitcoin reserve” alongside other major cryptocurrencies, aiming to diversify away from the U.S. dollar and bolster America’s position in digital finance . This initiative—though still in early stages—could create a government‑backed demand floor for Bitcoin and elevate its status on the global macro stage. When combined with the repeal of restrictive crypto regulations, these steps signal a shifting regulatory landscape that increasingly recognizes Bitcoin’s strategic value.
Lightning Network Growth: Practical Use and Revenue Potential
From a practical blockchain‑use perspective, the Lightning Network continues to flourish. Major exchanges such as Kraken and Coinbase have integrated Lightning payments, enabling near‑instant, low‑cost Bitcoin transactions for everyday use . On‑chain data shows the network’s capacity has swelled to over $250 million (approx. 4,800 BTC), nearing all‑time highs—a testament to growing merchant adoption and user demand for scalable payments . For businesses and developers seeking new revenue streams, Lightning offers micro‑payment capabilities, subscription models, and cutting‑edge financial products that leverage Bitcoin’s security with the speed of a second‑layer protocol.
Opportunities for Emerging Crypto Assets and Blockchain Applications
While Bitcoin’s charting landscape remains confined, the broader crypto ecosystem is rife with innovation. Projects focusing on Layer‑2 scaling solutions, cross‑chain interoperability, and decentralized identity are attracting venture capital backing. Developers can tap into revenue streams by building decentralized applications on platforms like Ethereum, Solana, and Avalanche, leveraging smart contracts for lending, derivatives, and asset tokenization. Moreover, tokenized real‑world assets—ranging from real estate to carbon credits—are gaining traction, offering new yield‑bearing opportunities for yield‑hungry investors. As U.S. policymakers embrace crypto, anticipatory dApp builders stand to profit from first‑mover advantages in these burgeoning sectors.
Trader Psychology and Risk Management
The recent market calm suggests that traders have acclimated to recurring Trump‑driven volatility. This emotional resilience is a double‑edged sword: while it reduces knee‑jerk liquidations on political headlines, it can also dull trader vigilance. Given the significant range-bound action, risk management frameworks—such as position sizing around ¥12M (＄84,047) mid‑range and stop placements beyond ¥13.38M (＄93,713)/¥10.82M (＄75,783)—are essential. Additionally, incorporating macro screens alongside on‑chain metrics can provide balanced trade signals.
