Main Points：
- Tariff Uncertainty: Ongoing import tariff negotiations are contributing to global market uncertainty, which is also impacting the cryptocurrency market.
- Local Bottom Likelihood: Nansen’s chief research analyst, Orelly Valteir, estimates a 70% chance that cryptocurrency valuations will reach a short-term bottom (local bottom) by June.
- Economic and Trade Policy Factors: President Trump is set to announce details on retaliatory tariffs on April 2, aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit of $1.2 trillion and strengthening domestic manufacturing, a move that initially rattled global markets.
- Market Data: Recent data show Bitcoin and Ethereum have declined 15% and 22% year-to-date, respectively. Nansen’s analysis suggests that once the key tariff negotiations pass, a clear bottom could be formed in the crypto markets.
- Equity and Crypto Trends: With U.S. stock markets and crypto assets both struggling to rally above their 200-day moving averages, a positive economic signal from the U.S. could restore market sentiment.
1. Introduction: Navigating Uncertainty Amid Tariff Fears
Global cryptocurrency markets, like traditional markets, are currently unsettled by ongoing import tariff negotiations. With U.S. President Trump scheduled to announce detailed retaliatory tariffs on April 2—measures intended to cut the nation’s $1.2 trillion trade deficit and boost domestic manufacturing—investors have grown cautious. Against this backdrop, market analysts are closely watching for signs of a local bottom forming in crypto prices within the next two months.
2. Nansen’s Analysis: A 70% Chance for a Crypto Bottom by June
Orelly Valteir, chief research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen, has analyzed recent market trends and believes there is a 70% probability that cryptocurrency valuations will bottom out by June. He points out that despite a sharp decline, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have only fallen 15% and 22% year-to-date, respectively, suggesting that supply-demand fundamentals are starting to improve.
Valteir contends that if the tariff negotiations reach their climax without further negative surprises, it could trigger a decisive recovery in crypto valuations. In his view, once the market moves past the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies, the risk-off sentiment will subside, allowing a “local bottom” to emerge.
3. Market Conditions: Stock and Crypto Trends
As U.S. economic data continue to disappoint, major stock indices and cryptocurrencies have struggled to rebound above their longer-term moving averages. Nansen’s research indicates that both U.S. equities and Bitcoin have not yet rallied above their 200-day moving averages, with short-term averages still on a downward trend. This lack of upward momentum underscores a fragile market sentiment that is heavily dependent on positive news—especially from trade policy and economic growth data.
4. Upcoming Events: Key Dates to Watch
Investors are now in a “wait-and-see” mode as they anticipate several critical events that could shape market sentiment:
- April 2: President Trump’s detailed announcement on retaliatory tariffs
- April 3: Release of the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index
- April 4: U.S. employment statistics
- April 15: U.S. individual tax filing deadline, which may prompt additional selling of assets to secure tax funds
- Additional event: The FOMC minutes scheduled for April 10 will further provide insights into monetary policy
These events will be closely monitored by investors, as any positive signal could help restore market confidence and push cryptocurrencies toward recovery.
5. Conclusion: A Cautiously Optimistic Outlook
Nansen’s analysis suggests a 70% probability that the cryptocurrency market will hit a local bottom by June, driven by improvements in supply-demand dynamics and the eventual resolution of tariff negotiations. Although recent events, such as the retaliatory tariff announcement, have led to significant short-term declines, the overall fundamentals appear to be setting the stage for a recovery. Investors are advised to keep a close eye on the upcoming U.S. economic data and policy announcements, as these will be critical in determining whether the market can stabilize and eventually resume a more bullish trend.
