An analyst from JP Morgan noted that the passage of the Clarity has a low likelihood of success. On September 16, the bill failed to pass the 60 votes required for a procedural deliberation. There has been strong opposition from the democrats, who voiced concerns about the ethical issues still left unanswered—or rather, unresolved—by the Clarity bill.
A key point that they raise is the connection the bill has to the Trump administration. Where the Clarity bill seeks to provide better oversight on cryptocurrency exchanges and trades, also including those of government officials, Trump’s family (not himself) have owned virtual asset platforms that have netted hundreds of millions of dollars in profit. The delineation between oversight and who gets to be overseen is still an ethical issue that democrats are grappling with.
After all, the bill requires the majority vote of the Republicans and some votes from the Democrats to pass—and even with a unanimous vote from the republicans, democrats—who strongly oppose sections of the bill—need to be swayed. This has led to the bill stalling in Congress and the Senate.
The signs that the bill will fail also extend beyond the House. Betters, analysts, and political correspondents all echo the same sentiment; that is, with the lens of the outside public, they are also unsure of the bill passing. This is not to say that the bill is influenced solely by the public; rather, the predictions reflect the unease that has permeated into the public eye.
In the failure to pass, the U.S. becomes a country that lacks a comprehensive legal framework towards cryptocurrency. That said, other bodies like the Securities and Exchange Commission have taken proactive steps in creating legislation of their own. Unburdened by political influence—by its very nature—the SEC becomes a body that does not merely sanction cryptocurrency crimes but has now become a policy making figure.
It is important to note that the bill’s passage requires a majority vote from Congress, then the Senate, then the signature and approval of the president. This is to say that with all the revisions being sought after, it seems that the bill would not pass within the year. That is what analysts have agreed upon; and that is what the current situation is.
