XRP at the Crossroads: Can the Token Reach $5 in 2026 After a Turbulent 2025?

Main Points :

• XRP experienced one of its most eventful years in 2025, marked by the settlement with the U.S. SEC, the launch of U.S.-listed spot XRP ETFs, and expanding global partnerships by Ripple.
• Despite these bullish catalysts, XRP failed to reach the long-anticipated $5 milestone, peaking instead at $3.66 before undergoing a sharp correction.
• On-chain data shows a significant decline in XRP Ledger activity, raising questions about organic network growth.
• Technical indicators suggest downside risks remain, but institutional ETF inflows and regulatory tailwinds could still reshape XRP’s long-term outlook.
• The probability of XRP reaching $5 in 2026 depends on whether fundamental adoption can catch up with financial and regulatory optimism.

Introduction: A Defining Moment for XRP

For much of the past decade, XRP has occupied a unique and often controversial position in the cryptocurrency market. Designed as a high-speed, low-cost settlement asset for cross-border payments, XRP has long promised real-world utility beyond speculation. In 2025, that promise appeared closer than ever to fulfillment.

The year delivered a cascade of long-awaited positive developments: the resolution of Ripple’s prolonged legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the approval and launch of multiple spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States, and a steady expansion of Ripple’s payment partnerships worldwide. For many investors, these milestones were expected to propel XRP decisively beyond the psychologically important $5 level.

Yet reality proved more complex. XRP peaked at $3.66 and later fell as much as 50%, underperforming large parts of the broader crypto market. As the calendar turns toward 2026, investors are left asking a crucial question: was 2025 merely a transitional year, or did XRP already mark its cyclical high?

2025: When Bullish News Failed to Translate Into Sustained Price Gains

Legal Clarity at Last: The SEC Settlement

One of the most significant events in XRP’s history occurred in May 2025, when Ripple Labs reached a settlement with the SEC, effectively ending years of regulatory uncertainty. The lawsuit had cast a long shadow over XRP since 2020, discouraging U.S. exchanges, institutions, and payment providers from fully engaging with the asset.

The settlement initially sparked optimism. By July 18, XRP reached a seven-year high, reinforcing the narrative that regulatory clarity would unlock suppressed demand. However, the rally proved short-lived. Within two weeks, the token retraced approximately 25%, falling back toward the $2.73 level.

This price behavior revealed an uncomfortable truth for XRP bulls: regulatory clarity alone was not sufficient to drive a sustained revaluation.

Government Digital Asset Reserves: A Brief Surge, Then Reality

In March 2025, XRP briefly became the focus of intense speculation after reports suggested it might be included as a candidate asset for a U.S. government digital asset reserve. The market reacted swiftly, sending XRP up more than 30% in a short period.

However, the details of the presidential order disappointed investors. The reserve would be limited to seized digital assets, with no new purchases planned. Bitcoin, meanwhile, received preferential treatment under a separate framework. As a result, the anticipated long-term buying pressure for XRP never materialized, and prices soon retreated.

Spot XRP ETFs: Institutional Validation Without Euphoria

The final major bullish catalyst of 2025 arrived in November with the launch of spot XRP ETFs in the United States. These products recorded inflows for 24 consecutive trading days, accumulating approximately $1.06 billion in total inflows and reaching over $1.14 billion in assets under management.

[XRP ETF Net Inflows Over Time – Source: SoSoValue]

From a structural perspective, this was a landmark achievement. It demonstrated that institutional investors were willing to gain regulated exposure to XRP. Yet, unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum ETFs, these inflows did not trigger a dramatic shift in market sentiment or a sustained price breakout.

On-Chain Reality Check: Declining Network Activity

While financial products and regulatory news dominated headlines, on-chain data painted a more sobering picture.

Over the past six months, the XRP Ledger has recorded fewer than 45,000 daily active addresses. As of December 18, activity stood at approximately 38,500 addresses—down 94% from the March peak of over 600,000.

[Daily Active Addresses on the XRP Ledger – Source: Glassnode]

This decline suggests that speculative interest, rather than sustained user adoption, drove much of the earlier surge. For a network positioned as a backbone for global payments, stagnating or declining on-chain usage raises critical questions about long-term value accrual.

Historical Context: XRP’s Pattern of Sharp Corrections

XRP’s past offers important context. After reaching its all-time high in 2018, the token lost more than 90% of its value within a year—well before the SEC lawsuit began. Today, XRP has already fallen around 40% from its 2025 high of $3.66.

[XRP Price Drawdowns from Cycle Highs – Source: Glassnode]

History does not guarantee repetition, but it does caution against assuming that every bull market catalyst leads to sustained appreciation. If similar patterns were to unfold, deeper corrections in 2026 would not be unprecedented.

Technical Analysis: Where Are the Critical Levels?

From a technical perspective, XRP entered 2026 on fragile footing. The price has broken below the psychologically important $2 level and the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) around $1.87—both historically significant support zones.

Key levels to monitor include:

• $1.85: Near the 100-week EMA
• $1.80: The November 21 swing low
• $1.61: A potential liquidation-driven target if supports fail
• $1.38: The 200-day EMA, which may act as temporary support

[XRP/USD Weekly Chart with EMAs – Source: TradingView]

A sustained break below these levels could trigger cascading liquidations, reinforcing bearish momentum in the short to medium term.

Diverging Analyst Views: Collapse or Comeback?

Market opinion on XRP’s future is deeply divided.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt has warned of a potential double-top formation, suggesting that XRP could fall below $1 over the coming months if bearish patterns confirm.

[XRP Double-Top Scenario – Source: Peter Brandt]

Conversely, analysts such as Chad Steingraber argue that continued ETF inflows, combined with a longer-term bullish technical structure, could drive XRP into a broad $2–$10 range during the next cycle. This optimistic scenario assumes that institutional adoption eventually translates into real transactional demand.

Fundamentals vs. Financialization: The Core Tension

At its core, XRP’s valuation debate centers on a fundamental tension: utility versus financialization.

Ripple’s payment network continues to expand through strategic partnerships, particularly in regions where cross-border settlement costs remain high. If XRP becomes deeply embedded in these payment flows, sustained demand could emerge organically.

However, if ETF-driven exposure remains largely speculative—decoupled from actual on-chain usage—price appreciation may struggle to sustain itself beyond cyclical rallies.

Conclusion: Is $5 in 2026 Realistic?

Reaching $5 in 2026 is not impossible for XRP, but it is far from guaranteed. The events of 2025 demonstrated that even historically bullish catalysts can fail to produce lasting price appreciation without corresponding growth in network activity.

For XRP to decisively break higher, three conditions likely need to align:

1. Renewed growth in XRP Ledger usage, reflecting genuine payment adoption
2. Sustained institutional participation, beyond short-term ETF inflows
3. A supportive macro and regulatory environment, particularly in the U.S.

Absent these factors, XRP may remain range-bound or face further corrections. For investors seeking new crypto assets and revenue opportunities, XRP in 2026 represents both a calculated risk and a test case for whether real-world utility can ultimately triumph over speculation.