Main Points :
- A severe liquidation event on October 10 wiped out nearly 2 million BTC trading accounts, deeply impacting market makers.
- Tom Lee, Chairman of Bitmine Immersion Technologies, has softened his previous $250,000 year-end forecast, now suggesting $100,000 is highly possible.
- Lee emphasizes Bitcoin’s historical pattern: most annual returns occur within just 10 trading days.
- Despite market chaos, he still considers a new all-time high (ATH) plausible before year-end.
- Recent market behavior, ETF inflows, and macro trends continue to support long-term bullish sentiment.
1. Introduction: A Market Shaken Yet Resilient
The cryptocurrency market has endured one of the most dramatic shocks in its history. On October 10, Bitcoin experienced a violent downward spike that triggered what analysts call the largest liquidation event ever recorded. According to Tom Lee—Chairman of Bitmine Immersion Technologies—this single day wiped out nearly two million trading accounts and forced numerous market-making firms to cease operations.
This extraordinary event has understandably influenced Lee’s previously aggressive price predictions. Throughout 2024, he repeatedly stated his view that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by year-end, driven by adoption cycles, miner economics, and institutional flows. Now, in late 2025, Lee appeared on CNBC and publicly softened that forecast for the first time, adjusting expectations to a more modest—but still ambitious—$100,000.
Yet Lee remains notably optimistic. In the interview, he stated that Bitcoin still has a “very high probability” of breaking $100,000 by December and even suggested that a new all-time high remains “within the realm of possibility.” Given the magnitude of October’s turmoil, his continued bullishness raises the question: Why does he still believe Bitcoin can climb?
The answer lies in an overlooked behavioral pattern unique to Bitcoin’s price action.
2. The October Liquidation Event: Understanding the Damage
Lee explained that the October 10 crash created significant structural damage in the market:
- ~2,000,000 accounts went to zero
- Multiple market makers exited due to trading losses
- Liquidity temporarily worsened, creating abnormal volatility
- Exchange spreads widened as automated systems malfunctioned
This cascade resembled a “mini-Lehman Brothers moment” for crypto liquidity providers. Market makers typically supply stable bid-ask spreads, and when they disappear, price swings amplify dramatically. The October event was therefore not only a liquidation but a liquidity crisis.
Even so, Bitcoin has historically shown an ability to recover from extreme drawdowns. Every major crash—2013, 2017, 2020, 2022—has eventually been followed by a sustained rally once high-leverage positions are cleared.
October’s event performed a similar function: it reset excessive leverage across the market, creating structural conditions that often precede renewed uptrends.
3. Why Tom Lee Still Believes in a Strong Year-End Rally
Despite the recent turbulence, Lee pointed to one of Bitcoin’s most astonishing long-term statistical patterns:
“Bitcoin generates most of its annual returns in just ten trading days.”
This pattern has been documented through multiple halving cycles. Lee noted that in 2024, Bitcoin’s best 10 days produced +52% total returns, while the remaining 355 days averaged –15%.
This asymmetry suggests that Bitcoin behaves differently from traditional assets:
- Its gains are highly concentrated,
- Its volatility clusters around short windows,
- And missing those key days results in significantly worse performance.
Because of this, Lee believes that Bitcoin’s strongest days of 2025 may still be ahead. If even one of those high-impact weeks occurs before December, the price could rapidly cover the distance needed to break $100,000.
4. Current Market Drivers Supporting a Price Rebound
Beyond historical patterns, there are several current market trends—confirmed by public data—that support Lee’s thesis.
4.1 ETF Flows Continue to Show Demand
While ETF net inflows slowed in Q3 2025 due to global macro uncertainty, Q4 saw a rebound:
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs showed a return to positive weekly inflows
- European and Asian ETFs reported consistent accumulation
- Pension funds and sovereign wealth funds continued small but steady allocations
These flows provide consistent buy-side pressure.
4.2 Miner Selling Has Decreased
Post-halving, miner reserves experienced a gradual decline due to profitability pressures. However, recent data indicates:
- A reduction in miner BTC sales
- Renewed hashrate stability
- Improved profitability from energy arbitrage and immersion cooling
Lower miner sell pressure historically correlates with stronger price recovery phases.
4.3 Macro Environment Favors Hard Assets
Inflation in both the U.S. and Europe remains above central-bank targets. Combined with slowing growth and geopolitical tension, institutional investors have been rotating into:
- Gold
- Bitcoin
- Energy commodities
Bitcoin is increasingly categorized as a digital macro hedge, which tends to attract flows during uncertain periods.
5. The Case for a New All-Time High Before Year-End
Tom Lee’s optimism does not imply a guaranteed ATH, but he identifies clear pathways toward renewed highs:
5.1 Market Structure has Reset
The October washout flushed out leverage, weak hands, and unstable market makers. Historically, Bitcoin rallies more sustainably after such events.
5.2 Retail Trading Interest is Returning
Google search trends, exchange sign-ups, and stablecoin flows indicate slowly rising interest.
5.3 Whale Accumulation Has Increased
On-chain data shows an uptick in wallets holding 10+ BTC and 100+ BTC, suggesting accumulation by wealthy traders and institutions.
5.4 Most BTC Supply Is Illiquid
More than 70% of all Bitcoin has not moved in over a year. This creates a structural supply shortage that amplifies price effects when demand rises.
Given these factors, Lee’s claim that Bitcoin could rise back to or above its previous ATH does not seem unrealistic—if one or two strong buying windows emerge, as history often provides.
6. Comparative Analysis with Other Crypto Assets
Investors searching for emerging assets or new revenue opportunities should consider the broader context of the 2025 market:
- Ethereum (ETH) continues its dominance in decentralized finance (DeFi) and real-world asset tokenization.
- Solana (SOL) maintains strong activity in payments and consumer apps.
- New Layer-2 networks continue capturing attention due to low fees and high throughput.
- Stablecoin settlement volumes now frequently exceed traditional remittance corridors.
Bitcoin’s stability supports the macro narrative, while altcoins continue driving innovation and new yield opportunities.
For investors seeking diverse exposure, the current environment offers a balance of risk-off Bitcoin accumulation and risk-on altcoin exploration.7. Figure: BTC Trend Illustration
8. Conclusion: Bitcoin’s Volatility Is the Cost of Its Opportunity
Tom Lee’s softened prediction—from $250,000 down to $100,000—reflects both realism and optimism. The October liquidation crisis was undeniably severe, wiping out traders and destabilizing liquidity. Yet the structural and behavioral qualities that define Bitcoin remain unchanged:
- Gains cluster in extremely short periods
- Cyclical supply-demand dynamics persist
- Institutional interest continues to grow
- The macro climate favors non-sovereign assets
For investors looking for new crypto assets, alternative income opportunities, or practical blockchain applications, the current phase presents a compelling environment. Extreme volatility creates risk, but it also creates the conditions under which Bitcoin has historically delivered outsized returns.
As the year closes, Tom Lee’s view serves as a reminder:
Bitcoin’s story is not over—and its most important days often arrive when the market least expects them.
