Main Points ：
- On-chain data from Glassnode shows Bitcoin demand remains weak, keeping the market stuck in a sideways range.
- Bitcoin continues fluctuating between $81,000 and $89,000, struggling to reclaim key cost-basis support levels.
- Short-term holder (STH) realized PnL ratio has collapsed to 0.07×, implying extreme profit-taking pressure and rising market stress.
- Long-term holders (LTH), however, still sit on historically strong unrealized profits, keeping liquidity stable for now.
- Options market positioning suggests volatility expansion toward December, with puts concentrated at $84,000 and calls near $100,000.
- Implied volatility is rising as markets prepare for macro and ETF-related catalysts.
- K33 Research believes Bitcoin is oversold emotionally and may be entering a long-term accumulation zone.
- Market will likely remain defensive and range-bound until cost-basis levels are reclaimed and strong inflows return.
1. Introduction: A Market Waiting for Direction
Bitcoin’s price movement throughout late November demonstrates a market caught between uncertainty and latent potential. According to Glassnode’s latest weekly report released on November 26, demand for Bitcoin continues to stagnate—even as supply dynamics remain historically constructive. The analysis shows that without renewed inflows, Bitcoin is expected to remain locked in a tight sideways range, struggling to recover from its recent breakdown below major cost-basis support levels.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades near $90,000, modestly above the unstable $81,000–$89,000 band mentioned in the report. Despite the bounce, on-chain indicators reveal increasing stress among short-term participants and waning conviction from new buyers.
To fully understand the implications, we explore the data behind Bitcoin’s weakened demand, liquidity conditions, derivative trends, and how these factors compare to broader developments in the crypto market today.
2. Bitcoin’s Cost-Basis Breakdown: Why It Matters
Glassnode emphasizes a crucial change: Bitcoin recently broke below several major cost-basis support lines, the average price levels at which different segments of market participants accumulated coins. These cost structures often act as psychological support levels—for miners, short-term holders, long-term holders, institutions, and ETFs.
The most important among them is the True Market Mean (TMM), estimated at $81,000. The TMM reflects the average realized price paid only for coins actively moving on-chain, making it extremely relevant for identifying market pressure points.
Once Bitcoin dropped below these foundational levels, the market experienced a regime change. Instead of aggressive buying, demand softened. Bitcoin’s inability to reclaim these cost bases signals that:
- Momentum traders are sidelined
- New capital inflows remain limited
- Short-term holder sentiment has turned defensive
This sets the stage for prolonged consolidation unless a new catalyst emerges.
3. Rising Market Stress: The Collapse of STH Realized PnL Ratio
The clearest sign of weakening demand is the drastic fall in the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Profit/Loss Ratio.
- Normal neutral average: 4.3×
- Current level: 0.07×
This collapse indicates that coins recently accumulated are increasingly being sold at a loss. Historically, levels below 1.0 often appear during market stress—but 0.07× indicates deep capitulation among reactive traders.
Glassnode warns that if this ratio stays depressed, Bitcoin is at risk of revisiting (or falling below) the $81,000 TMM, a critical threshold for psychological and structural support.
Why does STH stress matter?
Short-term holders dominate marginal buying and selling. When they panic:
- Market volatility rises
- Downward liquidity increases
- Bid-side support weakens
The two charts above visually reflect this tightening pressure.
4. Long-Term Holders Remain Strong—For Now
A surprising contrast emerges when examining Long-Term Holder (LTH) behavior.
While STH ratios collapse, LTH realized profit/loss ratio (7-day MA) sits at approximately:
- 408×, even after a recent correction.
Although this is dramatically lower than prior peaks, it still indicates:
- LTHs maintain immense unrealized profit cushions
- Their selling activity does not yet indicate fear
- Liquidity conditions remain stable as long as LTHs continue realizing profit—not loss
However, Glassnode highlights a key warning sign:
If LTH ratio falls below 10×, it historically marks the onset of deep bear markets.
Thus, LTHs are still supportive, but their margin for error is narrowing.
5. Options Market Shows Volatility Loading: Puts at $84k, Calls at $100k
Derivatives data adds another layer.
Glassnode observes that:
- Put options cluster around $84,000
- Call options concentrate near $100,000
This distribution creates a “volatility pocket” within the existing price range. Markets may remain quiet until a break above or below these heavy option areas. Once breached, gamma dynamics may intensify volatility.
The implication:
- Upside potential is limited unless spot buyers return
- Downside risk persists due to soft demand and heavy hedging activity
This aligns with Bitcoin’s broader consolidation theme.
6. Implied Volatility Rising Ahead of December
Traders are pricing in higher implied volatility approaching the December maturities. Rising IV typically reflects market expectations for:
- macro events
- ETF flow shifts
- institutional rebalancing
- year-end liquidity thinness
Glassnode notes that while upside flows have decreased, downside hedging flows remain active—further signaling traders’ cautious stance.
7. Liquidity Remains Low: Not Capitulation, But Not Conviction
Glassnode emphasizes that Bitcoin is not in a forced liquidation environment. There is no evidence of mass panic among all market participants.
Instead, the environment is described as:
- low liquidity
- low conviction
- low demand
Until Bitcoin reclaims key cost-basis levels and a new wave of inflows returns—particularly from ETF participants—the market will likely continue its sideways, defensive structure.
8. Contrasting View: K33 Research Calls BTC “Emotionally Oversold”
K33 Research provides an alternative interpretation:
Bitcoin is not fundamentally weak; it is emotionally oversold and offering a strong long-term buying opportunity.
K33 analysts argue that:
- Structural demand for Bitcoin remains strong (ETFs, sovereign interest, institutional credit markets).
- Selloffs have been driven by short-term sentiment, not fundamental deterioration.
- Current levels historically coincide with long-term accumulation zones.
For long-term investors seeking opportunities amid volatility, this perspective introduces an important counterbalance to Glassnode’s caution.
9. Latest Developments (Additional Research)
To complement the article’s data, we integrate current major trends across the Bitcoin ecosystem:
(a) ETF Inflows Temporarily Slowed
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs—previously a major inflow engine—have seen reduced activity due to:
- macro uncertainty
- institutional risk-off positioning
- year-end portfolio rebalancing
While not negative, the slowdown contributes to reduced demand pressure.
(b) Miner Revenues Stabilizing After Halving
Post-halving miner stress has decreased:
- Transaction fees remain elevated
- Hashrate continues climbing
- Miner capitulation risk is lower than earlier months
This supports long-term supply-side stability.
(c) Global Regulatory Progress Continues
Japan, Singapore, the UAE, and Hong Kong continue advancing clear frameworks supporting institutional crypto participation, creating positive long-term tailwinds.
10. Conclusion: Bitcoin Approaches a Turning Point
Glassnode’s analysis paints a picture of a fragile but not broken market. Bitcoin demand remains muted, short-term holders are stressed, and liquidity is thin. However, long-term holders remain resilient, and structural trends—such as institutional adoption—are still intact.
The coming weeks will determine whether Bitcoin:
- regains key cost-basis levels and resumes an uptrend
or - remains stuck in a defensive sideways range, vulnerable to downside volatility
For investors seeking new crypto opportunities or practical blockchain applications, this environment demands caution—but also offers potential accumulation opportunities.
The divergence between STH stress and LTH confidence may soon resolve, setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next major directional move.
