Main Points :
- Bitcoin’s price remains under pressure due to U.S. macro uncertainty, particularly the record-long 43-day government shutdown and delayed economic indicators.
- Short-term holders (STH) show an unusually high unrealized loss ratio above 95%, historically signaling capitulation and subsequent rebounds.
- Options market open interest clusters around $95,000, forming a realistic near-term gravitational target.
- Despite concerns about delayed rate cuts, labor-market data suggests a December easing is still plausible.
- The combination of oversold on-chain signals and eventual normalization of U.S. data releases provides a strong setup for a medium-term recovery.
1. Introduction: A Market Under Stress but Not Broken
Bitcoin continues to move in a constrained, heavy-top structure as yen-based pairs hover around ¥15.3M (~$100,000). Despite attempts to climb back toward ¥16.5M (~$108,000), the market struggled amid global macro headwinds. This week’s price movements reflect a complex environment where optimism and fear collided: optimism from expectations of the U.S. government reopening, and fear caused by deteriorating sentiment in U.S. high-tech equities and delayed macro data.
While price action is clearly weak, the structural signals underneath tell a different story: Bitcoin may be approaching its exhaustion point on the downside.
2. Macro Context: U.S. Shutdown Ends, but Data Vacuum Continues
2.1 The 43-day shutdown — the longest in U.S. history
Although the U.S. government finally reopened after a record-breaking 43 days, the underlying economic system is far from normal. Macro data releases remain delayed because compilation requires administrative stability. Thus:
- September employment data may be released next week
- October non-farm payrolls will include only employment changes
- October inflation data may not be released at all
- Market visibility until the Dec 9–10 FOMC meeting remains impaired
This data blackout has created uncertainty in all risk assets. Without forward visibility, both tech stocks and Bitcoin lost momentum.
2.2 Rate-cut expectations weaken but have not collapsed
Futures markets now price a December rate cut at below 60% probability, down from earlier optimism. Tech stocks—especially expensive AI-related companies—fell sharply, pulling Bitcoin down with them.
However, labor-market indicators show the potential for easing:
- Private sector job cuts came in lower than expected
- Employment weakness remains probable despite delayed reports
- The Fed may still deliver a December cut if data (once released) confirms labor softening
This suggests that the current weakness is driven more by uncertainty than by negative fundamentals.
3. Market Price Action: Failed Attempts to Break $100,000
Bitcoin attempted several rallies this week:
- Weekend rebound to ¥16M ($104k)
- Push toward ¥16.5M ($108k) after tariff-reduction news
- Temporary recovery after Senate approval of a stopgap bill
However, each rally failed for one central reason: risk-off sentiment triggered by tech stocks.
When high-tech U.S. equities dropped, especially AI-related names, Bitcoin quickly followed and broke below key psychological supports:
- Loss of ¥15.6M → drop to ¥15.5M
- Loss of $100k in USD terms
- Limited bid support as traders awaited clarity
Bitcoin remains tightly correlated to U.S. tech equities in this phase of the market cycle. A rebound in tech is necessary before Bitcoin can sustain upward momentum.
4. On-Chain Signals: Short-Term Holders Hit Extreme Loss Levels
One of the most important structural indicators is the Short-Term Holder (STH) loss ratio.
4.1 STH Unrealized Loss Ratio > 95%
According to Glassnode, STHs who acquired BTC within the last 155 days now carry unrealized losses above 95%.
Historically, STH loss ratios above 90–95% correspond to:
- Capitulation
- Panic-driven selling
- Market exhaustion
- Imminent price rebounds within weeks
The ratio dropped to 82% during a weekend recovery, but quickly surged again above 95%. This indicates short-term traders are under immense pressure—often a contrarian bullish signal.
5. Derivatives Market: Open Interest Clusters Suggest Magnetic Levels
Deribit options markets show notable positioning behavior:
- Calls around $90k and $95k saw modest increases in open interest
- Put buying remains limited—no sign of aggressive downside hedging
- Gamma and OI concentration suggest $95k is a realistic short-term magnet
When options positioning clusters form, Bitcoin tends to gravitate toward them as expiry approaches.
6. On-Chain Flows, Active Addresses, and Mining Pools
Although the referenced Japanese report included charts for monthly transaction counts, active address metrics, and mining pool flows, the qualitative trends can be summarized as follows:
6.1 Transaction counts remain stable
Despite price weakness, monthly BTC transaction volume remains steady, signaling healthy baseline usage.
6.2 Active addresses plateau
Active addresses have not sharply declined, suggesting long-term holders continue to participate even during price pressure.
6.3 Mining pool flows are neutral
No major miner capitulation is observed. Miner outflows remain within normal ranges, indicating that miners are not driving forced selling pressure.
These trends imply that Bitcoin’s weakness is sentiment-driven rather than fundamentally driven.
7. Relationship to New Crypto Asset Hunting and Practical Blockchain Applications
Your audience—investors looking for new crypto assets and practical blockchain use cases—will find several takeaways:
- Bitcoin’s current weakness is sentiment-based, not structural
- Oversold conditions often precede market-wide rebounds
- BTC stability helps risk appetite extend into altcoins
- When macro uncertainty clears, liquidity typically rotates into innovative assets
Historically, when Bitcoin bottoms during macro uncertainty, emerging Layer 1s, staking-based tokens, and real-world asset (RWA) protocols outperform during the next cycle leg.
8. Near-Term Outlook: Weakness First, Rebound Next
8.1 Remaining downside risk
Due to macro uncertainty and tech-stock weakness, BTC may still retest:
- $90k
- or even $88k
These would be healthy, technically justified pullbacks.
8.2 But rebound is likely soon
Given:
- STH capitulation
- Options clustering at $95k
- Expected release of delayed U.S. macro data
- Probable Fed rate cut
- No miner stress
- On-chain oversold indicators
A self-driven BTC rebound appears increasingly likely.
9. Conclusion: Oversold Today, Opportunity Tomorrow
Bitcoin currently sits in a zone of uncertainty created by a rare macro situation. The longest U.S. government shutdown in history, delayed economic indicators, and tech-stock selloffs have combined to hold down BTC price action. But underneath the surface, structural signals show a market nearing exhaustion:
- STH losses at capitulation levels
- Neutral miner flows
- Healthy transaction and address counts
- No aggressive derivative bearish positioning
When visibility improves—likely in the coming weeks—Bitcoin has a solid probability of initiating a recovery leg, pulling the broader crypto sector upward with it. For investors seeking new opportunities, this phase of uncertainty often provides the most asymmetric risk-reward setups.
