Hidden Strength in October — Why Bitcoin’s October Slump Could Be a Prelude to a Surge

Key Takeaways :

• In October 2025, Bitcoin has shown signs of weakness relative to gold and silver, yet its ability to hold near $111,000 hints at underlying resilience
• Analysts from Lekker Capital and 21Shares believe structural demand (ETF flows, monetary easing, deleveraging) could drive Bitcoin’s next leg upward
• The path forward will heavily depend on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next moves, global liquidity conditions, and macroeconomic uncertainty
• Recent forecasts for end-2025 span a wide range — from conservative targets of ~$120K to aggressive predictions of $160K or more
• There are also warning voices anticipating a potential crash or fractal cycle completion, so risk management is crucial

1. October Weakness: Pressure or Setback?

The original article by Helene Braun observes that despite gold and silver making fresh all-time highs, Bitcoin has lagged. On October 15, Bitcoin fell ~1.2% in 24 hours to around $111,500, while many altcoins declined by 2–3%. The headline frames this as weakness, but analysts argue that Bitcoin’s ability to maintain near $111,000 actually reflects strength in a volatile environment.

Gold, driven by safe-haven demand and central bank buying, currently outpaces Bitcoin — but some believe Bitcoin is merely lagging and may catch up.

2. Analyst Confidence: Bitcoin to “Catch Up” to Gold

Lekker Capital – Quinn Thompson’s View

At a London digital asset summit, Quinn Thompson (CIO of Lekker Capital) urged patience, stating that “Bitcoin’s time is coming.” He expressed conviction that Bitcoin could catch up with gold. He sees parallels between upcoming moves and prior periods (November 2024, October 2023).

21Shares – Matt Mena’s Outlook

Matt Mena suggests that Bitcoin’s resilience amid global uncertainty is evidence of structural demand. He highlights three supports for upside:

1. ETF inflows
2. Expectations of more dovish monetary policy
3. The de-leveraging process that may clear weak long positions

Mena projects that Bitcoin could rise to as much as $150,000 by year-end, assuming favorable FRB moves.

3. The Fed, Beige Book, and Macro Backdrop

A key hinge for Bitcoin’s trajectory is U.S. monetary policy. The Beige Book released mid-October revealed signs of growing weakness in the labor market, reinforcing market expectations for potential rate cuts later this year. In remarks preceding the release, Chair Powell acknowledged labor market “softness,” fueling optimism that the Fed may pivot.

If rate cuts materialize, it could bolster risk assets, including Bitcoin. Conversely, if the Fed holds firm, Bitcoin may remain range-bound or retrace.

4. Recent Developments & Market Sentiment

• Bitcoin briefly broke below $110,000 but later rebounded to ~$112,493, reflecting a cautious investor mood.
• The broader crypto market saw Ethereum up ~0.6%, and XRP climbing ~0.6% as traders responded to Powell’s softer tone.
• Earlier, on October 10, Bitcoin dropped to ~$104,782 amid renewed U.S.–China trade tensions, including surprise tariff hikes.
• A massive $19B liquidation event in crypto derivatives markets triggered high volatility. Bitcoin briefly rebounded above $114,000 after the shock.
• Analysts now point to global liquidity as a dominant driver, rather than just rate cuts. QCP Capital remarked that markets are shifting into a regime of liquidity dependence.

These recent signals suggest that while macro and geopolitical noise can rattle markets, structural undercurrents (liquidity, positioning, sentiment) may ultimately shape direction.

5. Alternative Forecasts & Diverging Scenarios

Bullish Cases

• Some forecasts cluster in the $145,000 to $250,000 range for end-2025, citing halving effects, institutional adoption, and limited supply.
• The “tick-tock fractal” approach forecasts a potential cycle top near $150,000 by October 2025.
• Based on cycle momentum and whale accumulation, more aggressive forecasts suggest Bitcoin could even reach $160,000 in late 2025.
• Some long-shot predictions reach $500,000, championed by figures like Chamath Palihapitiya.

Bearish / Cautionary Views

• Analysts pointing to fractal cycle exhaustion warn of a potential retracement to $50,000 after any peak, especially if a longer cycle ends.
• Some suggest the current October could mark completion of a larger fractal or “judgment day” in Bitcoin’s cycle.
• Others argue that if support near $104,000 – $110,000 fails, Bitcoin may revisit $60,000 in more extreme downside scenarios.

Middle Ground / Technical Scenarios

• Many technical models expect October to see Bitcoin trade between $120,000 to $128,000, assuming key support holds.
• Some analysts caution that while $160K is a headline target, more modest outcomes around $100K – $130K remain plausible.
• A possible consolidation or sideways range is also a realistic base case amid macro uncertainty.

6. What This Means for Crypto Seekers & Builders

For readers looking for new crypto opportunities or real-world blockchain applications, what lessons emerge?

1. Storage of value & digital gold narrative — If Bitcoin is indeed “catching up” to gold in investor perception, projects tied to security, staking, or tokenized gold may find renewed interest.
2. ETF, regulated access, and flows — The continued inflow into regulated crypto products could strengthen institutional participation, opening space for infrastructure, custody, and index innovations.
3. Macro sensitivities — Any buildout in crypto must factor in macro regime risk. Projects less dependent on risk-on flows (e.g. DeFi yield-generating protocols, real-world asset tokenization) may fare better in choppy markets.
4. Volatility as a feature, not a bug — If more deleveraging is ahead, rapid moves up or down can create entry opportunities and risk signals.
5. Cycle awareness matters — Many of the forecasts depend on the ongoing halving cycle and fractal timing; developers and investors may benefit from aligning launches or capital allocation with cyclical phases.

Conclusion

While October 2025 sees Bitcoin underperforming gold and other traditional safe havens, the fact that it continues to hold near $111,000 amid pressure suggests there is durable strength beneath the surface. Analysts from Lekker Capital and 21Shares posit that structural demand — driven by ETF inflows, monetary easing, and the ongoing deleveraging of weak positions — could set the stage for Bitcoin to “catch up” to gold in the coming months.

That said, the trajectory ahead is far from certain. Much hinges on the Fed’s stance, macro liquidity conditions, geopolitical risk, and investor behavior. Forecasts for end-2025 span a wide range (roughly $120K to $250K+), while contrarian views warn of a possible cycle top and sharp downside.

For those charting new crypto plays or blockchain applications, this environment underscores the importance of structural propositions, macro resilience, and cycle alignment.