Main Points :
- Institutional ETH accumulation, staking innovation, and ETF staking adoption are reshaping the demand-side dynamics.
- The Pectra and upcoming Fusaka upgrades aim to boost staking efficiency, scalability, and cost reduction.
- Expert and algorithmic forecasts for 2035 ETH prices vary widely—from tens of thousands to over $55,000 per ETH.
- Recent developments (e.g. U.S. staking ETFs approvals) mark structural shifts in how capital may flow into Ethereum.
- Nonetheless, significant risks remain: regulatory uncertainty, protocol competition, centralization pressures, and macro volatility.
Below is the English article, followed by its full Japanese translation.
1. Introduction
As we look toward 2035, Ethereum (ETH) remains one of the most promising but also contested assets in blockchain and crypto. For readers searching for the “next crypto” or novel revenue streams via blockchain, Ethereum’s trajectory offers both inspiration and caution. In what follows, I will (1) summarize the key arguments and data from the referenced Japanese article, (2) update with more recent developments and forecasts, and (3) offer my perspective on where Ethereum may land in 2035.
2. Summary of the Reference Article
2.1 Recent Price Trends & Recovery
As of October 2025, the article notes, ETH trades around ¥670,000 (≈ $4,200), recovering sharply from about ¥210,000 earlier in 2025. This resurgence, capped by setting a new all-time high in August, dispelled notions that Ethereum had become obsolete.
Structural Drivers Behind the Recovery
- Corporate ETH Accumulation: Entities like BitMine Immersion (targeting 5% of total supply), FGF (proposing up to $5B ETH purchases), and Ether Machine (raising $65.4M, acquiring 150,000 ETH) are among those buying ETH for yield and strategic exposure.
- ETF Flow Shifts: The article argues that outflows from older products like Grayscale’s ETHE are leveling off, while capital is rotating into newer Ethereum spot ETFs from issuers like BlackRock and Fidelity. Institutional allocations to ETH ETFs were said to increase sharply (from 4.8% to 14.5%).
2.2 Price Forecasts
- VanEck (2030):
– Base case: $22,000 (¥3,450,000)
– Bull case: $154,000 (¥24,200,000)
– Bear: $360 (~¥56,000) - AI-based Projections (to 2035):
– Minimum: ¥1.24 million
– Average: ¥1.40 million
– Maximum: ¥1.43 million - Mid-term (2025–2030):
– End-2025: $5,000–$6,000 (¥780,000–¥940,000)
– 2026: average ~ ¥690,000
– By 2030: potential upward of ¥1.33 million - Long-term (2035):
BeInCrypto’s estimate: $30,000–$100,000 (¥4.7 million–¥15.7 million)
2.3 Three Core Innovation Drivers
- Pectra Upgrade & Staking Efficiency
- Launched May 7, 2025 (EIP-7251)
- Validator max stake per node expanded from 32 ETH to 2,048 ETH
- Validator activation time shortened (≈12 hours → ≈13 minutes)
- Effective APR uplift (~1.5% relative) - Exponential Growth of Smart Contract Economy
- Ark Invest projects the smart contract market may reach USD 5.2 trillion by 2030, generating > USD 450 billion in annual network fees
- VanEck allocates ETH addressable market in four sectors: finance/ payments, marketing & gaming, infrastructure, AI - Staking-Enabled Spot ETFs
- As of October 2025, issuers like BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, 21Shares are negotiating with the SEC to add staking.
- If approved, ETH ETF holders may gain ≈2.5–4% annual yield
- Solana staking ETF approval (July 2025) is cited as a precedent
2.4 Upcoming Upgrades & Japan Market Context
- Fusaka Hard Fork (Nov 2025): includes PeerDAS (reducing node load), Verkle trees (efficiency in data handling), and enhancements to decentralization.
- Japanese Exchanges: The article provides profiles of BitTrade, SBIVC Trade, CoinCheck, and bitbank, describing their staking, UI, and user-focus features.
2.5 Risks & FAQs
The article cautions about technical risks (smart contract bugs, scalability, quantum threats), regulatory shifts (especially re: staking classification), and competition from other L1s (Solana, Polkadot, Cardano). The authors stress that forecasts—even from experts—are wide and uncertain, and investors must manage risk carefully.
2.6 Summary (as per original)
Ethereum’s long-term price predictions vary enormously, but the common thread is that ETH is increasingly viewed as an income-generating infrastructure token, rather than merely “digital oil.” The 2025 upgrades, ETF developments, and corporate accumulation represent a structural turning point. Still, volatility and uncertainty remain high.
3. Recent Developments & Updated Insights (2025)
3.1 Staking ETFs Now Approved in U.S.
Recent reports confirm that Grayscale has enabled staking for its Ethereum ETFs in the U.S., making it the first such product to distribute staking rewards to ETF holders. This removes a long-standing obstacle: previously, ETF shareholders could not benefit directly from ETH staking rewards, which had limited institutional interest.
Parallelly, REX-Osprey launched the first U.S. ETH staking ETF in September 2025 (ticker STETH), coupling spot exposure with staking yield. This structural change could open the floodgates for mainstream capital seeking yield.
3.2 Competitive Selling: Citi & Standard Chartered Outlooks
Citi projects ETH will end 2025 at $4,300, suggesting current strength is more sentiment-driven than fundamental. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered recently raised its end-2025 target to $7,500 (from $4,000), citing increased corporate engagement and the stablecoin-driven fee expansion on Ethereum.
3.3 Institutional & Capital Flows
Cumulatively, U.S. spot ETH ETFs reportedly drew close to $14 billion by mid-2025. Later reports emphasize that institutional demand for ETH is intensifying, with capital rotating into Ethereum-based products.
3.4 Protocol & Staking Research
Academic papers offer deeper insight into staking dynamics:
- A 2025 paper on SPARC (Staking Performance And Reward Coopetition) presents a design that rewards smaller validators disproportionately to discourage centralization.
- Another work “Towards a Formal Framework of the Ethereum Staking Market” shows that solo stakers are more sensitive to reward changes than operators using centralized or liquid staking—implying that issuance or reward cuts may further concentrate staking under operators.
These insights are crucial: as staking becomes a central component of valuation, the structure of rewards and decentralization will be key.
3.5 Technical Upgrades: Pectra, Dencun, and Beyond
Ethereum’s Dencun upgrade (March 2024) introduced EIP-4844 (Proto-Danksharding), enabling cheaper data posting by L2s via blob storage—a major throughput and cost improvement.
The Pectra upgrade (mid-2025) implements validator-per-node stake expansion and faster activation via EIP-7251. (This mirrors the reference article’s description.)
Fusaka (Nov 2025) remains a focal point: PeerDAS (8× data blob capacity), Verkle Trees, and decentralization enhancements may materially improve cost, scalability, and node performance.
4. Extended Price Forecasts & Scenarios Toward 2035
4.1 Forecast Ranges
- PricePredictions.com: projects ETH at around $55,700 for March 2035 (with a low estimate $54,755).
- CoinCodex: by 2030, ETH could range from $6,301 to $12,424.
- Ethereum.org / Kraken: assuming a 5% annual growth, projects ETH at $7,235 by 2035 and $9,234 by 2040.
- VanEck (2025 internal model): anticipates ETH network revenues rise from $2.6B to $51B by 2030; with 70% market share, ETH could reach $11,800 in 2030.
- Capital.com / Third-party Aggregates: some models foresee ETH surpassing $10,000 by 2030 and continuing rising past 2040.
As we stretch to 2035, the divergence becomes enormous—some scenario models imply ETH at tens of thousands, while more conservative ones hover in the low to mid-five-digit range.
4.2 Scenario Framework
Let’s outline plausible trajectories:
Base Scenario
- ETH captures ~60–70% of the smart contract market
- Staking yields stabilized at 2–4%
- Continuous adoption of DeFi, real-world asset tokenization, L2 scaling
- Regulatory clarity, favorable policies in U.S., EU, Japan
→ ETH trades between $20,000–$40,000 in 2035
Bull / Growth Scenario
- ETH dominates as the settlement layer for tokenized finance
- Staking ETF inflows surge massively
- Network fee growth accelerates
- Minimal competition wins
→ ETH climbs toward $50,000–$100,000+
Bear / Risk Scenario
- Regulatory crackdown (e.g. staking deemed securities)
- Competitors (Solana, Polkadot, newer entrants) steal market share
- Scaling or security failure / centralization issues
→ ETH stalls or slips; perhaps $5,000–$15,000
Wildcard Upside
- Breakthrough in interoperability, Ethereum becomes “money layer” for traditional finance
- Massive tokenization of real-world assets
→ ETH surges beyond $100,000
I believe the base-to-bull scenario is more plausible given incremental progress so far—but downside risks are nontrivial.
5. Implications for Crypto Hunters & Builders
5.1 For Investors Seeking “Next Big Asset”
Ethereum remains among the safer big bets, given its infrastructure position, developer mindshare, and ongoing upgrades. However, compared to emerging composable chains or niche protocols, ETH may no longer offer “10× from zero,” but rather a more stable, yield-oriented growth play.
5.2 For Builders / Entrepreneurs
- Layer 2 / Scaling Protocols: Continued innovation here remains critical; success in data availability, rollups, and zero-knowledge proofs will drive adoption.
- Real-World Asset (RWA) Tokenization: Projects that bridge traditional assets onto Ethereum may capture durable value (e.g. tokenized bonds, real estate).
- Staking & Validator Infrastructure: With increased decentralization pressures, designing fair staking models (e.g. inspired by SPARC) is a potential niche.
- Hybrid Products & Yield Tools: Innovations around staking derivatives, yield aggregation, and hybrid ETF + DeFi interfaces may open new revenue channels.
