Main Points :
- Nearly 97 % of circulating Bitcoin is now held at a profit, signaling strong bullish sentiment and deep accumulation.
- Institutional demand, particularly via spot Bitcoin ETFs, has surged—drawing over $2.2 billion inflows in a single week.
- The $117,000–$120,000 zone is now viewed as a structural support region, where ~190,000 BTC last changed hands.
- A rise in leverage, crowded call-option positioning, and high funding rates (exceeding 8 %) raise short-term fragility risks.
- A pullback toward $117,000 could offer a healthier consolidation, resetting leveraged positions and sustaining momentum.
Below is an integrated, narrative-style article (in English) with recent updates and contextual commentary, followed by a full Japanese translation.
1. On-Chain Profitability Reaches Unprecedented Heights
In the latest bulletin from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, it is revealed that 97 % of Bitcoin’s current circulating supply is now in profit—that is, nearly all holders sit above their cost basis. This level of profitability is rare and often signals a mature phase in a bull cycle, but it is not necessarily a precursor to imminent reversal if other structural supports remain intact.
That virtually all participants are “in the green” implies that the recent rally has pulled many out of their purchase losses. Historically, when such a high fraction of supply is profitable, there is an elevated risk of consolidation or “rotational pressure”, where some profits are realized—but markets can still extend upward if flows persist.
Glassnode emphasizes that, so far, realized profits remain controlled. In other words, investors are not indiscriminately selling; instead, they appear to be rebalancing or rotating capital in measured steps, which suggests a healthy bull structure rather than panic liquidation.
2. Supply Clusters Turn into Support: $117,000 to $120,000 as the Key Zone
To understand where Bitcoin might find its floor in a pullback, analysts often turn to a Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap—a visualization of at which prices the current supply was last acquired.
According to Glassnode, the area between $117,000 and $120,000 now acts as a structural support zone. The map suggests that ~190,000 BTC were last transacted in that price band, making it a magnet for defense from holders who are still comfortably profitable.
Between ~$120,000 and $121,000, support is more limited—suggesting that if prices dip, the $117k region offers a stronger buffer.
Glassnode notes that a pullback toward $117,000 would not necessarily be catastrophic; instead, it could invite renewed buying from recently-entered participants defending their gains.
Thus, $117k–$120k is not just a psychological milestone but potentially a battleground zone for accumulation vs. pressure.
3. Institutional Flows and ETF Demand Fuel the Rally
While on-chain accumulation is strong, it is the institutional flows via spot ETFs that have provided major structural thrust. Glassnode reports that more than $2.2 billion flowed into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in one week, helping absorb sell-side pressure and supporting the upside move.
These inflows reversed earlier mild redemptions seen in September, underlining renewed institutional conviction.
Notably, mid-tier holders (wallets holding between 10 and 1,000 BTC) have been the most active buyers in recent days. Their consistent accumulation helps stabilize the structure by broadening the base of participation, in contrast to reliance only on whales.
This dynamic—organic accumulation plus institutional backing—gives the current rally more resilience than one purely driven by leverage speculation.
4. Leverage, Funding, and Call Clustering: Risks in the Midst of Strength
No discussion of this rally is complete without noting the dark flipside: market leverage is surging, futures open interest is at records, and implied volatility in options markets is rising—all of which heighten fragility.
Glassnode flags funding rates above 8 % (annualized) as symptomatic of crowded long positioning in perpetual futures. This kind of leverage magnifies any sideways moves or pullbacks.
Additionally, in the options market, there is a concentration of call-heavy flows—meaning many traders are betting on further upside. While this suggests confidence, it also means positioning is increasingly one-sided, raising the risk of sharp reversals if sentiment changes.
Recent derivative-market dynamics echo this concern. Reports show that open interest in BTC perpetuals has climbed (e.g. from ~$42.8B to ~$43.6B), suggesting renewed leverage appetite.
These structural signals should not be viewed as immediate doom, but as a higher background risk: volatility is likely to spike, and a levered “unwinding” (liquidations) could accentuate a pullback.
5. Navigating a Pullback: Support, Reset, Consolidation
Given these dynamics, a measured pullback toward $117,000 may be healthy—even desirable. Many traders and analysts expect such a move to reset leveraged positions, relieve overextended flows, and allow the uptrend to build fresh momentum on a firmer base.
In fact, CryptoMichNL (via Blockchain.News) projects a short-term retracement to reset leverage, followed by a consolidation phase.
A liquidation event recently cleared over $644 million in leverage across crypto, including ~$155 million from Bitcoin positions—underscoring how vulnerable highly leveraged longs can be.
If a pullback holds in the $117k–$120k zone, it could reinforce confidence and relieve pressure. A failure to do so, however, might open the door to more disruptive corrections.
6. What This Means for New Crypto Projects and Strategic Investors
For readers interested in discovering new cryptos or designing real-world blockchain use cases, the current environment offers both opportunity and caution. Here are some implications:
Implication 1: Institutional adoption is real and deepening
The inflows into spot ETFs show that institutional adoption is driving capital into Bitcoin now more than ever. That suggests a pathway for new projects that can meaningfully integrate with institutional pipelines (custody, compliance, regulation).
Implication 2: Differentiated utility matters
In a phase where leverage is risky, simple hype won’t carry a new asset far. Projects that can demonstrate real utility, scalable use cases, interoperability, and alignment with regulated frameworks stand a better chance.
Implication 3: Stay mindful of macro leverage cycles
Even if your project is fundamentally strong, broad crypto drawdowns driven by deleveraging could drag sentiment across the board. Be prepared with capital buffers, risk hedges, or phased rollout plans.
Implication 4: On-chain signals remain valuable for timing
Using metrics like accumulation/distribution, supply clusters, and derivative positioning can help you spot inflection points—not just for Bitcoin, but similar signals may apply to alt sectors you target.
7. Outlook & Scenario Modeling
Considering all of the above, here’s a possible scenario framework for Bitcoin through Q4 2025:
| Scenario | Price Range | Key Drivers / Risks |
|---|---|---|
| Base / Bull continuation | $126,000 → $140,000+ | Continued ETF inflows, accumulation by mid-tier holders, structural support holds |
| Healthy consolidation | $117,000 → $126,000 | Leverage reset, sideways rangebuilding, accumulation at support |
| Extended correction | $100,000 → $117,000 | Support fails, cascade liquidations, risk-off sentiment |
Some bullish analysts are already projecting $175,000 or more for Bitcoin before longer-term cycles conclude. But these targets depend heavily on sustained capital flows and orderly risk management in leveraged markets.
Summary & Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s ascent to a point where 97 % of its supply is in profit is a powerful signal of market strength and broad-based accumulation. That said, the very conditions that accompany such elevated profitability—thin remaining “loss zone,” rising leverage, crowded call positions—are known to precede periods of rotation or volatility.
What makes the current structure more durable is the confluence of institutional inflows, diversified accumulation across mid-tier wallets, and support turning structural near $117k–$120k. These features provide a foundation that may allow the uptrend to persist, even if temporarily interrupted.
That said, risk management is essential. A pullback to $117k is not a defeat—it may be a healthy means of resetting the market. If that region holds and more inflows arrive, the path upward remains viable.
For crypto projects and investors seeking the next opportunity, the takeaway is clear: alignment with institutional infrastructure, robust real-world utility, and sensitivity to macro deleveraging cycles will matter more than ever. Use on-chain insight as a compass, not a guarantee.
