Key Points :
- The classical 4-year Bitcoin cycle, tied to halving events, is under debate—but many industry insiders insist a cycle of some kind will persist.
- The role of human emotion (greed, fear, FOMO) remains central, even with greater institutional participation.
- Recent halvings and institutional inflows may reshape cycle amplitude, timing, and volatility.
- Some analysts argue the 4-year cycle is morphing into a longer “supercycle” under macro influence.
- Price forecasts for late 2025 and into 2026 diverge: from a peak near $125K to an extended bull run toward $200K+.
- For people seeking new crypto opportunities or real-world blockchain use, cycles can offer timing clues—but should not be the only guide.
Introduction: The Enduring Debate over Bitcoin’s Cycle
Bitcoin’s so-called “4-year cycle” has long been a staple narrative in the crypto world. According to this theory, after every halving (which cuts miner rewards), a multiyear bull run follows, culminating in a peak roughly every four years, before a correction and then accumulation. The recent article you shared underscores that voices in the industry believe that while the exact shape may not be identical to past cycles, some form of cyclic behavior will continue — especially given persistent human behavioral dynamics and structural incentives.
In this piece, I’ll first summarize and expand on the arguments for and against the 4-year cycle (drawing from your article and other sources). Then I’ll bring in more recent developments and forecasts (as of late 2025) to show where the debate stands now. Finally, I’ll suggest what that means for people looking for new crypto investments or blockchain projects in a world where cycles may be evolving.
Below is the English article, followed by a full Japanese translation.
The Traditional 4-Year Cycle: Mechanisms and Assumptions
The Halving as the Engine of the Cycle
At the heart of the 4-year cycle is Bitcoin’s halving mechanism: every ~210,000 blocks, miner rewards are cut in half, reducing the rate at which new BTC enter circulation. The logic is simple: lower supply, ceteris paribus, should raise price if demand holds or increases. Historically, the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings were followed by dramatic bull runs.
Because halving intervals are predictable, many observers have assumed the market rhythm will continue in a roughly four-year cadence.
Emotional and Behavioral Reinforcement
Yet the halving alone doesn’t fully explain the oscillations. According to Gemini’s Saad Ahmed (cited in your article), the 4-year cycle persists largely because humans tend to overextend during bull markets, followed by overreaction during bearish phases. Greed (FOMO) and fear amplify trends, creating self-reinforcing dynamics. Even as institutions mature, emotional swings continue to shape how fast markets go up or down.
Hence, the 4-year cycle is not simply a supply-shock model—it is also a mirror of collective psychology.
Institutional Influence and Dampening Effects
Proponents of the cycle argue that institutional actors may dampen volatility but will not erase cycles entirely. As your article notes, with more institutional participation, markets could absorb some shocks, making drops or spikes less extreme—but cycles rooted in sentiment would still exist.
However, critics argue that as crypto markets mature, the cyclical extremes may shrink or even transform. Some analysts suggest that the halving’s impact is weakening and may no longer reliably drive bull runs. One school of thought suggests that Bitcoin is gradually becoming a more stable asset class, less subject to wild boom-and-bust cycles.
Summarizing the Original Article + Context
The article conveys the following narrative:
- Cycle not dead, just evolving
Gemini’s Saad Ahmed, speaking at Token2049, says the 4-year cycle is unlikely to vanish. It may not look exactly as before, but some version of it will persist due to recurring emotional patterns. - Institutional participation modifies but doesn’t replace cycles
While institutional capital can absorb some volatility, cycles are ultimately driven by human behavior (overextension, corrections). - Recent data still supports cyclic trends
On August 21, Glassnode observed that Bitcoin’s recent price movements line up with historical halving cycles. The idea is that even in 2025, there’s evidence of alignment with past cycles. - Potential October peak based on past patterns
Analyst Rekt Capital suggests that, if past patterns hold, the cycle peak may come in October 2025—roughly 550 days after the April 2024 halving. - Skeptic views
Not everyone is convinced. Matt Hogan of Bitwise said he doesn’t expect Bitcoin to simply mirror past cycles. Instead, he sees the period 2026 onward as more bullish overall (allowing the possibility of a longer cycle).
Thus, the article frames the 4-year cycle debate as alive: under pressure from structural changes, yet still relevant, especially for those watching market timing.
Recent Developments and Alternative Perspectives (2025 Mid–Late)
To complement the article, here’s how the situation has evolved or been debated in more recent months.
Record Highs amid Broad Institutional Flows
As of early October 2025, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high around $125,400. Analysts attribute this surge partly to strong inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs and institutional adoption echoing the cycle-driven narrative. For instance, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of around $3.25 billion in a recent week.
These flows give credence to the idea that supply constraints tied to halving remain relevant—even in a more institutionalized environment.
Cycle Models Forecasting $125K–$131K Peak
Cycle models such as those by Bitcoin Intelligence and 21st Capital point toward a Bitcoin rally in late 2025 toward $125K to $131K as a plausible peak range. Other forecasts are bolder: CryptoQuant suggests a 120% increase from ~$93,000 to ~$205,000 by year-end, assuming the bullish phase continues.
Still, these are probabilistic gambles. Analysts caution that past returns (such as a 686% post-2020 surge) may not be replicable given the changed market structure.
The Supercycle Argument: Is the 4-Year Cycle Fading?
Some voices argue the 4-year cycle is being superseded by a longer “supercycle” driven more by macro and liquidity factors than by halving alone. Binance research, for instance, has proposed that macro trends have “hijacked the timeline,” pointing to a possible peak in Q2 2026 instead of late 2025.
Others suggest blending trends: the 4-year halving cycle remains a background rhythm, but the amplitude and timing are increasingly shaped by macro drivers (interest rates, dollar strength, inflation, global liquidity).
Weakest Post-Halving Performance to Date
A notable counterpoint: Bitcoin’s post-2024 halving performance has been relatively weak. Within the first year after the April 2024 halving, price gains were modest compared to prior cycles—only ~43.4% over a similar period, well below prior historical norms.
This weaker response raises questions: Is the halving’s effect diminishing? Are external macro constraints suppressing the bull run? Or is the cycle simply delayed or muted?
Projected Scenarios and Strategy Implications
Given the blend of arguments, here are plausible scenarios for how Bitcoin’s cycle might play out—and what that means for those seeking new crypto opportunities.
Scenario A: Classic 4-Year Cycle Holds (~October 2025 Peak)
- Bitcoin peaks around $125K–$135K in October 2025, then undergoes a drawdown and consolidation phase.
- The cycle then resets toward 2028.
- In this scenario, timing new altcoin or layer-1 bets around the downturn could offer alpha.
Scenario B: Muted Cycle with Lower Volatility
- The cycle still operates, but with more subdued amplitude. Peak might be lower (e.g. $120K–$140K) and the ensuing correction less violent.
- Institutional flows and macro buffers prevent crashes from becoming too extreme.
Scenario C: Transition to Supercycle (~Mid-2026 Peak)
- Bitcoin’s peak doesn’t come in late 2025, but in mid-2026. The 4-year rhythm becomes less tight; peaks stretch longer in time.
- Macro factors (monetary policy, liquidity, institutional rotation) dominate.
- Altcoins with real adoption or utility might decouple and outperform as capital searches yield.
Strategic Considerations for Crypto Investors and Practitioners
- Don’t lean entirely on cycles. The cycle is a reference—not a guarantee. Use it as one lens among many (on-chain metrics, macro, fundamentals).
- Diversify over phases. In bull phase, momentum and growth plays often win; in correction phases, utility and defensibility matter more.
- Watch institutional flow signals. ETF inflows, treasury buys, custody demand offer real confirmation beyond model curves.
- Look for alpha in off-cycle opportunities. If the cycle becomes less reliable, projects with real use (DeFi, infrastructure, on-chain apps) may matter more.
- Built optionality. Use position scaling and hedges to survive cycle surprises.
Conclusion
The debate over Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle is far from settled. While structural change and institutional maturation challenge the old paradigm, the notion of repeated cycles still holds psychological and analytical power. Many in the industry believe that—even if the cycle evolves in amplitude or timing—the underlying forces of scarcity, sentiment, and adoption will preserve a rhythmic element to crypto markets.
For those hunting new crypto investments or real-world blockchain use cases, cycles offer helpful timing cues—but not certainties. In a changing market, combining multiple frameworks—from on-chain metrics to macro flows to fundamental project evaluation—offers better odds.
If you like, I can prepare a graphical timeline overlaying past cycles plus model forecasts into 2026, or suggest candidate altcoins or protocols that may outperform under different cycle scenarios.
