Main Points :
- Bitcoin and Ethereum show historically strong seasonality in Q4
- BTC’s 50-week moving average is a critical support level
- The XRP/BTC pair faces a potential breakout after years of range-bound trading
- A “short 2×” Strategy stock ETF (SMST) is flashing a bearish signal toward Bitcoin
- The US dollar index (DXY) may be forming a double bottom, posing a headwind for risk assets
- Nvidia is showing signs of topping, which might signal a broader risk-off phase
- Recent regulatory shifts (e.g. crypto ETFs) and macro moves add fresh context
- A balanced, scenario-based approach is warranted heading into Q4
Below is a full narrative exposition, followed by a full Japanese translation of the English version.
1. Seasonal Tailwinds: Why Q4 Might Favor BTC & ETH
One of the most compelling arguments heading into Q4 is seasonality. Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged ~85% returns in the fourth quarter, with November historically showing a 46% gain on average. Ethereum typically sees a more modest Q4 uplift, though its strongest performance historically has come in Q1 rather than Q4.
Of course, the presence of a seasonal bias does not guarantee a smooth upward path; volatility, macro shocks, and market structure shifts can derail trends. That said, the historical pattern suggests that starting Q4 with exposure to major crypto may act as a tailwind, especially if macro conditions remain favorable.
Recent commentary reinforces this view. For instance, analysts point out that Bitcoin’s seasonal strength tends to emerge after September’s typical weakness, and altcoins often outperform in Q4 and Q1 after autumn corrections. Some strategists even suggest that if Bitcoin clears key resistance, Q4 could propel it toward $140,000 or more.
But caution is warranted: seasonality is a probabilistic tilt, not a guarantee.
2. BTC’s 50-Week SMA: The Line in the Sand
A technical fulcrum to watch is Bitcoin’s 50-week simple moving average (SMA). In prior cycles, this average has often acted as a dynamic support line—when price holds above it, the bull cycle tends to remain intact; when it breaks, corrections intensify.
Currently, Bitcoin has pulled back ~5%, and the price is trading near the zone of $98,900 (50-week SMA). A slip below that could expose a drop toward the 200-day SMA (around $104,200) or even earlier August lows near $107,300.
One structural fear is that Bitcoin’s historic tendency to crest around 16–18 weeks post-halving might combine with weakening momentum to press prices downward. However, as long as BTC remains above its 50-week average, many analysts consider the broader trend intact.
In short: for Q4 bulls, defending this moving average is critical; losing it could invite deeper selling.
3. XRP vs BTC: Breakout or False Alarm?
XRP has been a strong performer in 2025, rising over 30% year-to-date, but against Bitcoin its relative strength has been muted.The XRP/BTC pair has been locked in a low-volatility range since early 2021, and currently is testing its upper band.
If XRP/BTC breaks decisively to the upside, that could signal a rotation toward altcoins and unlock latent upside. On the flip side, failure to break could re-entrench the pair in its range, keeping XRP as a laggard relative to Bitcoin.
Technically, XRP is now consolidating above support (~$2.75), and a clean breakout above ~ $2.86–$2.95 could aim toward $3.62. But caution: XRP’s large circulating supply (≈60 billion), concentration of holdings, and regulatory uncertainties remain structural headwinds.
Thus, the XRP/BTC pair is one of the signals — more than a trade — to watch for directional rotation in the broader crypto market.
4. The Inverse Bet: SMST & Strategy Stock Weakness
A curious but insightful indicator comes from Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF (SMST). This is a leveraged instrument aiming for −2× returns on MicroStrategy (a major corporate BTC holder). Remarkably, SMST has climbed to a multi-month high of ~$35.65, forming a reverse head-and-shoulders (inverse H&S) pattern, which is often a bullish reversal signal.
Because SMST is a bet against MSTR (and indirectly, bearish on Bitcoin), its strength suggests growing hedging or short sentiment among institutional traders. In effect, the SMST rally is akin to a bearish “whisper” on Bitcoin or on exposures via Strategy stock.
If SMST continues upward, it could reinforce a weaker tone for Bitcoin — a potent counterbalance to seasonal or technical upside. As such, it’s a contrarian proxy worth monitoring.
5. Dollar Index (DXY): A Macro Crosswind
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is another critical macro variable. A strengthening dollar often acts as a headwind for risk assets, including crypto. Recently, DXY appears to be forming a double bottom near ~96.30. If DXY breaks above ~100.26, it could open the path toward ~104 — a scenario that would likely squeeze liquidity out of cryptos and risk assets.
Conversely, if DXY fails and rolls over (or remains stuck), it could sustain a more favorable backdrop for capital flows into crypto. The DXY chart thus functions as a kind of liquidity thermostat for risk assets: when it rises, risk tends to cool; when it weakens, risk tends to reassert.
Thus, traders should watch DXY’s support (~96) and resistance (100–104) zones carefully over Q4.
6. Nvidia: Topping Risk in the Risk-On Playbook
Nvidia (NVDA) often serves as a bellwether for risk appetite, particularly in tech, AI, and capital-intensive sectors. Over the past year, NVDA has traded inside a broadening channel between highs formed in mid-2024 and 2025. Since late July, NVDA has repeatedly stumbled near the upper boundary, suggesting signs of bullish exhaustion.
A sustained downturn in Nvidia may flag risk-off sentiment, which could cascade into cryptos, given the correlations emerging over recent cycles. If NVDA fails near resistance, it may portend broader equity weakness — a scenario that would not bode well for speculative crypto positioning.
Hence, NVDA’s chart is more than a stock play; it’s a risk-sentiment barometer in the AI / tech frontier.
7. Recent Developments & Emerging Catalysts
To contextualize these technical themes, it helps to note several fresh developments shaping the landscape:
• ETF Rule Reforms
In September 2025, the U.S. SEC significantly streamlined the approval process for crypto ETFs — shortening timelines from 270 to 75 days and reducing individual review burdens. This has triggered a wave of new ETF filing activity, particularly for altcoins like XRP, Solana, etc. This structural opening could supercharge inflows and drive rotational flows in Q4.
• Macro / Fed Dynamics
Ongoing Fed rate cut expectations and dovish shifts are broadly supporting risk assets. But any surprises—either hawkish pivots or sticky inflation—pose tail risks. Recently, cryptos (including BTC and XRP) faced volatility following Fed moves.
• Strategic Crypto Reserve (US)
A bold wildcard is the U.S. proposal to create a Strategic Crypto Reserve, including Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana, and others. +1 While highly controversial, this signals growing institutional and national-level conviction toward crypto as a strategic asset.
• Institutional & Inflow Trends
Institutional interest remains robust, especially via funds and spot ETF structures. Some strategies are overweight BTC/ETH; others hedge via derivatives or short bets. The interplay of inflow, leverage, and positioning will shape Q4 dynamics.
These developments dovetail with, counterbalance, or amplify the previously discussed technical and sentiment signals.
8. Scenario Framework & Tactical Suggestions
Given the mix of signals, here is a scenario framework and tactical posture outline for Q4:
| Scenario | Likely Drivers | Implications for Crypto | Suggested Stance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish “Seasonal Alpha” | BTC holds 50-week SMA, DXY falls, NVDA holds up, ETFs bring inflows | Broad-based rally: altcoins may benefit, momentum breakouts | Maintain long exposure to BTC/ETH, add selective altcoins (e.g. XRP if breakout) |
| Mixed / Range-Bound | BTC hovers near support, DXY choppy, SMST hedging, NVDA weak | Choppy trading, occasional breakouts but limited trend | Use tactical entries with tight risk control, rotate into strongest sectors |
| Bearish / Risk-Off | BTC breaks 50-week SMA decisively, DXY surges, NVDA weakens sharply | Steep correction, flight from crypto into safer assets | Hedge or reduce exposure, use derivatives or cash buffer |
Tactically, consider:
- Using staggered entries near trend support rather than all-in bets
- Allocating stop / risk thresholds (e.g. below the 50-week SMA for BTC)
- Watching for confirmation breakouts (e.g. XRP/BTC above key resistance)
- Monitoring macro catalysts (Fed statements, DXY shifts, equity leadership)
- Keeping some cash or hedges ready as volatility insurance
Conclusion: Stay Agile, Watch Key Lines
As Q4 2025 unfolds, the convergence of seasonal tailwinds, technical pivots, and macro shifts creates an intriguing opportunity landscape for crypto investors. The historical tendency for Bitcoin to outperform in Q4 provides optimism, but it must contend with real risks—particularly a breaking of its 50-week SMA, DXY strength, or a broader reversion in risk assets.
Among the litmus signals:
- BTC’s 50-week SMA: losing it may signal deeper downside
- XRP/BTC breakout: could trigger altcoin rotation
- SMST rally: warns of latent bearish positioning
- DXY’s double bottom: a potential macro crosswind
- Nvidia topping: early cue for changing sentiment regime
Layered atop these are the structural shifts in ETF rules and institutional flows, which may amplify upside volatility or cause rotational blowoffs. For investors seeking the “next opportunity,” the balance lies between aggressive conviction and disciplined risk control. In essence: be ready to act, yet humble before the market’s reflexivity.
