Key Points :
- Arthur Hayes posits that if the U.S. Federal Reserve adopts yield curve control (YCC), Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $3.4 million by 2028
- Hayes’s model links credit expansion to Bitcoin price via a historical correlation (≈ $0.19 increase in BTC per $1 of new credit)
- His scenario is premised on massive Treasury issuance (~$15 trillion) and large-scale Fed absorption to suppress yields
- Hayes cautions that the $3.4M figure is a theoretical upper bound; he emphasizes the directional view: BTC should outperform
- In the near term, macro trends—interest rate cuts, central bank policy shifts—may trigger strong moves in crypto markets
- Risks remain high: regulatory uncertainty in the U.S., global liquidity constraints, and unpredictable real‐world adoption
- Recent developments: central banks may gradually diversify to include Bitcoin, and forecasts suggest further Fed easing is possible
Below is an English‐language article drawn from the referenced Japanese article, enriched with updated context and commentary. Afterward, you will find a full Japanese translation (without summary).
1. Bitcoin’s Upside If the Fed Implements YCC
Arthur Hayes, the outspoken co-founder of BitMEX, recently argued that if the U.S. Federal Reserve adopts yield curve control (YCC), Bitcoin could theoretically soar to $3.4 million by 2028. His thesis has attracted attention not only for its boldness, but also because it attempts to tie Bitcoin’s future to macroeconomic structure rather than simple speculation.
He frames YCC as an extreme policy tool: under it, the Fed would commit to capping yields on certain maturities of U.S. Treasuries by directly intervening in the bond market—buying or selling as needed to maintain target interest rates. This can flatten the yield curve and essentially suppress long-term borrowing costs. Hayes argues that in a future where the U.S. is issuing massive amounts of debt, such a tool might become politically viable.
By anchoring yields, the Fed would indirectly facilitate massive credit expansion. Hayes sees credit growth as the key input in his model: historically, he asserts, each dollar of new credit corresponds to about $0.19 of Bitcoin upside. If cumulative credit issuance reaches into the order of $15 trillion by 2028, his model implies a pathway to $3.4M BTC.
However, Hayes is careful to say that he does not fully expect BTC to exactly hit $3.4M. Rather, he means it as an extreme scenario, with the real value likely to land “well above” today’s price levels. What he cares most about is the direction of travel.
2. Underlying Assumptions and Risks
a) Assumption: Massive Treasury Issuance + Fed Absorption
Hayes assumes that the U.S. deficits will remain unsustainably large, with cumulative issuance crossing $15 trillion by 2028. He further assumes that foreign and private demand will be inadequate, forcing the Fed to purchase a large share of Treasuries to avoid runaway yields.
b) Assumption: Stable Credit-to-BTC Link
The model rests on a historical correlation: $1 of new credit yields about $0.19 of BTC appreciation. But this is an inference from past periods, extrapolated into a far more extreme environment. The linearity and stability of this relationship over trillions of dollars of credit is highly uncertain.
c) Risk: Policy Reversal, Inflation or Hyperinflation
YCC is rarely used in modern times, precisely because it risks inflation and distorts market signaling. A misstep could lead to runaway inflation or forced retreat from the policy, triggering large nominal rate swings. Hayes’s scenario assumes the political will to maintain YCC over years.
d) Risk: Regulatory & Adoption Uncertainty
In the U.S., the regulatory framework for crypto remains murky. Cryptocurrencies straddle definitions of securities, commodities, or something else entirely. That ambiguity invites legal risk.
Furthermore, for Bitcoin to scale toward multi-million-dollar valuations, broad institutional acceptance and usage would likely need to expand dramatically—something that cannot be guaranteed.
3. Near-Term Catalysts and Market Positioning
Even if the full YCC scenario never comes to pass, Hayes argues that turning points in Fed policy (e.g., pivoting from tightening to easing) can spark powerful moves in BTC and crypto markets. He sees liquidity as the lever: when central banks flood markets, crypto tends to benefit.
Currently, Bitcoin trades in the ballpark of $105,000–$115,000 (depending on exchange), a steep rise relative to earlier years. Some institutional flows suggest growing accumulation interest. A recent ~$680M institutional BTC purchase was cited as evidence of rising conviction.
Analysts are projecting further upsides in more moderate scenarios:
- Some believe that if conditions stay favorable, BTC could break $150,000 within a year.
- Bernstein (a major securities firm) speculated that under a bullish scenario, BTC might reach $200,000 by end-2025.
- But these are more modest than Hayes’s $3.4M projection and more grounded in conventional monetary forecasts.
The key pivot point is whether the Fed will shift toward loosening. The OECD recently suggested room for three more interest rate cuts in coming quarters, forecasting policy rates falling to ~3.25–3.5% by spring 2026.
If the Fed leans dovish, crypto markets may see renewed tailwinds. But if the Fed signals caution or backlash to inflation, downside risk remains.
4. Broader Trends: Central Banks & Crypto
Beyond Hayes’s model, there are structural trends worth highlighting that may influence how Bitcoin and blockchain use evolve over the coming years.
4.1 Central Banks May Add Bitcoin to Balance Sheets
Some analysts argue that Bitcoin might eventually find a place alongside gold on central bank balance sheets. Deutsche Bank, for example, suggested that by 2030, Bitcoin and gold may coexist as reserve assets, especially if confidence in fiat is shaken.
While most central banks remain cautious, early talk of diversification into digital assets is emerging. That said, practical adoption is likely far off—many central banks remain heavily committed to sovereign currencies and digital fiat experiments.
4.2 CBDC Trends and Institutional Focus
In 2025, the momentum in digital currencies is tilting away from consumer‐facing retail CBDCs toward wholesale CBDCs aimed at financial institutions. These wholesale systems emphasize interoperability, settlement, and cross-border liquidity among banks and large financial players.
Interestingly, the U.S. halted retail CBDC development via executive order, but continues with experiments in wholesale and cross-border payments (Project Agorá).
4.3 Fiscal Spillover via Crypto Flows
A recent working paper examined how U.S. stimulus flows tracked into cross‐border crypto transactions. The finding: fiscal flows do leak into crypto channels, but at a modest level (an upper bound of ~2.52 %). In other words, policy stimulus can spur some crypto demand, but it’s unlikely to be the dominant channel.
5. Structural Use Cases in Blockchain and Crypto
For readers focused on practical blockchain and crypto adoption, here are relevant developments to watch:
- Tokenization of real assets: Real estate, art, commodities may be tokenized, enabling fractional ownership and greater liquidity.
- Interoperability / cross-chain bridges: As ecosystems mature, bridging value across chains is becoming more robust, allowing composability across protocols.
- Decentralized finance (DeFi) scaling: Layer-2 solutions, rollups, and modular execution layers aim to reduce cost and improve throughput, making DeFi more viable for real-world use.
- On-chain identity and data sovereignty: Projects are pushing blockchain as a scaffolding for identity, reputation, and secure data sharing (e.g. SSI).
- Enterprise blockchain / supply chains: More firms are trialing permissioned or hybrid blockchains for supply chain, provenance, and traceability use cases.
In a high-liquidity macro regime, speculative demand can amplify, but long-run sustainability likely depends on real, independent vertical use cases.
6. Summary and Outlook
Arthur Hayes’s forecast that Bitcoin could hit $3.4 million by 2028 is both provocative and instructive. It forces us to link crypto not to technical charts or narratives alone, but to macroeconomic architecture—debt, credit, and central bank tools like YCC.
His model is bold: credit expansion of trillions, yield suppression, and a stable translation between credit growth and BTC value. But it is also speculative: the real world rarely moves in such neat proportionality, and there are major governance, institutional, and policy risks.
That said, the directional logic may hold: if global liquidity becomes super abundant, credit expands rapidly, and institutional demand tilts pro-crypto, then Bitcoin could outperform many asset classes. Meanwhile, smaller but more grounded scenarios suggest 2025 might see BTC’s range push toward $150,000 to $200,000 in favorable conditions.
For those hunting new crypto assets or deployment opportunities, the current macro environment warrants close focus:
- Watch central bank rhetoric—especially shifts toward dovishness or unconventional tools like YCC
- Monitor regulatory moves in the U.S.—clarity or crackdowns could accelerate or derail flows
- Favor protocols with strong adoption, interoperability, and real-use value beyond pure speculation
- Keep a diversified approach; even in a liquidity boom, risk is asymmetric
In sum, whether or not BTC ever approaches $3.4 million, Hayes’s scenario is a useful lens. It highlights how deeply monetary policy and credit creation can intersect with digital asset markets. For investors and builders alike, setting strategies that stress-test against both bold and conservative outcomes may be the wisest path forward.
