Main Points :
- Bitcoin is consolidating in the $111,000–$113,000 range while on-chain data show widespread selling across all wallet cohorts (whales to small holders).
- Long-term holder supply is declining: coins dormant for 1+ or 2+ years are being brought back into circulation, though 5+ year holders remain steady.
- The Glassnode Accumulation Trend Score and related metrics signal a shift from accumulation to distribution across entity sizes.
- Recent whale sales (e.g. ~147,000 BTC in 30 days) suggest major profit-taking, pressuring price.
- However, institutional demand, exchange-traded fund flows, and coordinated accumulation by some firms might provide a counterbalance.
- The technical pivot levels (e.g. support around ~$111,400 short-term holder basis, resistance around $115,000+) are critical to watch.
- For those seeking new crypto opportunities or practical blockchain use cases, this environment underscores the importance of on-chain diagnostics, tokenomics, and supply management as part of project viability.
1. Market Context: Sideways Price Action, But Volatility Lurking
Bitcoin has largely traded in a consolidation band between $111,000 and $113,000 in recent days, with intra-day dips toward $111,042 before recovering above $112,500. Analysts warn that a break below $111,400 — the short-term holder cost basis — could trigger deeper downside pressure into a bearish regime. Conversely, regaining momentum above $115,000 could help signal re-acceleration of bullish trends.
The broader crypto market also saw a brutal deleveraging event recently, with roughly $1.5 billion in positions liquidated, exacerbating volatility and triggering steep moves in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Despite this, many market participants remain uneasy but cautiously optimistic, given the backdrop of hopeful rate cuts and continued institutional interest.
In short: price momentum is fragile, direction ambiguous, and the next catalyst will likely come from on-chain flows or macro triggers.
2. On-Chain Signals: Pan-Cohort Distribution Mode Engaged
2.1 Accumulation Trend Score and Wallet Cohort Behavior
The Accumulation Trend Score (ATS), a Glassnode metric combining size of entities and net coin flows over a 15-day period, is indicating distribution across all cohorts — from whales (>10,000 BTC) down to sub-1 BTC holders. In recent reports, the aggregate ATS has hovered around 0.26, well below the 0.5 threshold that typically signals net accumulation, suggesting widespread selling pressure.
Historically, such synchronous shifts from accumulation to distribution across the board tend to mark turning points or regime transitions in price trends.
2.2 Long-Term Holder Supply: Erosion of Dormant Coins
Historically stable supply held by long-term investors is now being drawn down. Coins that have not moved in 1+ years have fallen from ~70 % of circulating supply to ~60 %, and those held for 2+ years have declined from 57 % to 52 %. Meanwhile, 3+ year holdings have also been slipping; 5+ year coin supply, by contrast, remains relatively flat, suggesting the most patient HODLers are staying put.
This pattern implies that intermediate- and long-term investors are beginning to take profits, while the most “ancient” holders remain untouched.
2.3 Whale Sales and Large Movements
In the past 30 days alone, whales reportedly offloaded 147,000 BTC, roughly a 2.7 % decline in their holdings — valued at about $16.5 billion under current pricing. Additional whale activity includes a sale of 1,176 BTC (~$136 million) from a relatively dormant wallet, further underscoring liquidation pressure.
Whale flows into exchanges (especially Binance) have coincided with Bitcoin flirting with $112,500, reinforcing short-term selling pressure.
2.4 Partial Counterbalance: Institutional & ETF Demand
Amid the broad distribution, some institutional players are actively accumulating. For example, Japan’s MetaPlanet added ~5,400 BTC, and Saylor’s firm retains nearly 640,000 BTC in its treasury portfolio. Meanwhile, inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs (though weaker recently) and corporate treasury placements provide structural support.
This tug-of-war between wholesale profit-taking and structural accumulation will likely define near-term price dynamics.
3. Technical and Sentiment Landscape
3.1 Key Price Levels to Watch
- Support: ~$111,400 (short-term holder cost basis). A break below here would add legitimacy to a retest of deeper levels.
- Resistance / Reversal Zone: ~$115,000 and above. Reclaiming this zone would help shift momentum back to bulls.
- Wider consolidation band: $104,000 – $116,000 is seen as an “air gap” where many economies of accumulation and contraction occur.
3.2 Sentiment and Positioning
Retail “buy the dip” sentiment has swelled recently, reaching 25-day highs in social volume, which often acts as a contrarian signal in volatile markets. Futures and derivatives markets have also shown signs of fragility: funding rates are neutral but vulnerable, and liquidation risks loom large. ETF flows, once a major driver, have cooled, reducing external buying pressure.
In short, sentiment is stretched, positioning is fragile, and a small imbalance could trigger outsized responses.
4. Implications for New Crypto Investors & Blockchain Practitioners
4.1 Tokenomics & Supply Considerations Are Crucial
This episode underscores how supply dynamics—not just demand—can significantly influence price. Projects launching new tokens should model not only issuance but also sink mechanisms, vesting schedules, and potential holder behavior under stress conditions.
4.2 Value of On-Chain Analytics
Real-time cohort analysis (like ATS, dormancy, supply by age) is proving valuable in detecting regime shifts. As a prospective investor or developer, familiarity with on-chain analytics platforms (e.g. Glassnode, CryptoQuant) is essential to detect early changes in supply behavior.
4.3 Hedging or Staging Exits
In such phases, even “strong” projects face market turbulence. Having exit plans (e.g. tranche sell parts at intervals) or hedges (using derivatives or stablecoin positions) can protect downside risk.
4.4 Opportunity in Under-the-Radar Assets
Market stress in Bitcoin may spill interest to novel blockchain protocols, especially those with lower correlation to BTC. Projects with real utility, low supply inflation, and defensible use cases might attract capital looking for “alpha” beyond the Bitcoin trade.
4.5 Infrastructure & Real-World Use Cases Still Matter
Even in volatile markets, infrastructure layers (e.g. L2s, oracles, cross-chain bridges) and real-world applications (e.g. tokenization, supply chain, DeFi tooling) will eventually accrue value for builders. These are less susceptible to short-term speculation if they deliver utility.
5. Recent Developments & Market News (since the referenced article)
- Deleveraging wave: Liquidations of ~$1.5 billion in crypto positions triggered sharp moves in Bitcoin and Ethereum markets.
- Whale liquidation events: High-profile whales sold tens of thousands of BTC in mid-2025 (e.g. ~80,000 BTC for $9.6 billion), magnifying attention to distribution phases.
- Macro interplays: Rising UK bond yields and shifting asset flows have pressured Bitcoin, as whales rotate capital into ETH and fixed-income alternatives
- Crypto pump/dump research: A recent academic paper quantified insider profits around pump-and-dump events, showing how accumulation and liquidation patterns unfold rapidly — a reminder that even “smooth” markets may mask manipulation risk in smaller tokens
These developments reinforce vigilance: while Bitcoin itself is under pressure, the tailwinds and headwinds affecting altcoins and emerging projects require close monitoring.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is arguably in a transitional phase: despite nominal price consolidation around $111,000–$113,000, on-chain signals point to widespread distribution across all cohorts, particularly from whales and intermediate-term holders. Long-term holders (5+ years) remain steadfast, but their dominance is not yet sufficient to offset the selling pressure.
From the perspective of new-asset hunters and blockchain builders, this environment is both a challenge and an opportunity. The critical lessons are:
- On-chain supply dynamics matter — understanding issuance, dormancy, and holder flows can offer early signals of regime shifts.
- Tokenomics and vesting discipline are critical, especially in volatile conditions.
- Hedging and exit planning are prudent, even for projects with strong fundamentals.
- Underappreciated protocols may shine, especially if they bring real utility and decoupling from BTC speculation.
- Infrastructure and use-case focus pays off in the long run, regardless of short-term market sentiment.
In the coming weeks, whether Bitcoin breaks decisively below ~$111,400 or reclaims ~$115,000 will be telling. But for those operating beyond Bitcoin — scanning the token landscape or building real-world blockchain systems — aligning strategy with supply behavior, analytics, and risk controls will be key to navigating this uncertain phase.
