Main Takeaways :
- The “Sanyaku Kōten” (三役好転) signal—derived from Ichimoku Cloud analysis—has turned positive for Bitcoin, inspiring forecasts of a potential move toward USD 120,000 or more.
- This alignment of traditional technical analysis with Bitcoin suggests an increasing convergence between crypto markets and legacy finance.
- Institutional flows, ETFs, and corporate treasury strategies are reinforcing this shift, diminishing Bitcoin’s status as a purely speculative asset.
- For Japanese (and global) investors, the lesson is that success now depends on macro awareness, market sentiment reading, and adaptive strategies beyond mere price speculation.
- In sum, Bitcoin is entering a new phase of maturity; traditional tools and institutional capital are becoming central to its trajectory.
1. The “Sanyaku Kōten” Signal Lights Up Bitcoin
In the original article, the author argues that Bitcoin has just triggered the Ichimoku-based 三役好転 signal—comprising three conditions (conversion line above the base line, the cloud flipping to a bullish twist, and the lagging span above price). Historically, this formation is viewed as a powerful bullish reversal. According to the author, this alignment suggests that Bitcoin may test USD 120,000 in the coming cycles—a dramatic outlook relative to recent levels.
This suggestion is not idle speculation. The author links the trigger of this signal with broader macro developments—particularly a perceived easing of monetary policy risk following recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. In other words, the improved policy clarity has bolstered optimism across financial markets, and Bitcoin is now riding that wave. The strong signal is taken as evidence that Bitcoin is no longer a standalone “crypto bubble” asset but is progressively integrating into mainstream financial flows.
However, it is important to view such technical signals with caution—no indicator works always. Indeed, trading platforms like TradingView currently present a neutral/indeterminate verdict on Bitcoin’s momentum. Meanwhile, on exchanges such as Bitfinex, the technical consensus leans toward “Sell” or “Strong Sell” across many moving averages and indicators. This suggests that while the Sanyaku Kōten signal is noteworthy, market confirmation will require follow-through in price action and volume.
2. Why “Sanyaku Kōten” Works Here: The Fusion of Traditional and Crypto Markets
The original article argues that applying a classic indicator from Japanese and equity markets to Bitcoin underscores how crypto has matured into a market that institutional players now analyze with the same tools as stocks or commodities. But why exactly is this possible now?
Institutional Entry and ETF Infrastructure
Over the course of 2025, institutional adoption of Bitcoin has accelerated. According to one source, U.S. Bitcoin-focused ETFs have gathered tens of billions in inflows, providing a regulated on-ramp for large investors. Some institutional portfolios now allocate 1 %–3 % to Bitcoin, viewing it as a non-correlated asset with inflation-hedge potential. The newly approved SEC rules for listing commodity-based crypto ETFs are expected to reduce friction and broaden access to additional tokens beyond Bitcoin.
As institutions commit capital in size, their behavior often aligns with traditional quantitative, technical, and macro frameworks rather than pure sentiment-driven retail strategies.
Correlation with Traditional Markets
A recent academic paper finds that Bitcoin’s correlation with indexes like the NASDAQ and S&P 500 has strengthened in recent periods, especially after institutional milestones. What this means is that Bitcoin’s movement is less idiosyncratic and more tethered to broader risk-on/risk-off regimes. In this context, technical setups which assume some structural consistency (like Ichimoku formations) begin to gain predictive relevance.
Corporate Treasury Strategy and Treasury Firms
Large corporates and dedicated “Bitcoin treasury companies” are aggregating BTC on their balance sheets, effectively becoming players in the same market one would analyze for equities. A recent working paper surveys how such firms use leverage or corporate debt to expand BTC holdings. The effect is more stable, predictable flows—akin to the institutional flows typical in equity markets.
In short, the surface-level coincidence of a bullish indicator like Sanyaku Kōten may reflect a deeper structural change: Bitcoin’s markets are being shaped not only by retail noise but by institutional rhythms, macro signals, and capital flows.
3. Recent Market Developments: Risks, Corrections, & Structural Tailwinds
To enrich the base article’s narrative, here are a few of the most relevant recent developments:
- Large-scale Liquidations and Volatility Spikes
Crypto markets recently experienced $1.5 billion in liquidations driven by long positions, particularly in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bitcoin dropped ~2–3 % intraday before partially recovering. Some analysts view the shakeout as a healthy deleveraging that could strengthen structural support. - Resistance Zones and Technical Levels
According to analyses, Bitcoin currently faces strong resistance in the USD 117,500–119,000 band. Below that, support zones lie in USD 114,800–115,000, with further downside extending to USD 111,000–109,000. If the price can decisively break above ~119 K, the bullish narrative consolidates. But failure to hold support may trigger retracement.
- ETF Ecosystem Expansion and Regulatory Tailwinds
The recent SEC approval of streamlined listing standards for commodity ETFs is expected to spark a wave of new crypto funds. The first multi-crypto ETF (GLDC) including BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, ADA is already being proposed.
- Institutional Adoption Continues
Morgan Stanley is launching direct crypto trading for its E*Trade clients via Zerohash (H1 2026). Standard Chartered has begun offering spot crypto trading for institutional clients. Strive—the company backed by Vivek Ramaswamy—is acquiring ~5,800 BTC for $675 million to make Bitcoin treasury holdings core to its business model. - Macro Overhangs and Liquidity Sensitivity
Even as optimism mounts, Bitcoin is vulnerable to shifts in interest rates, policy pivot risk, and macro liquidity cycles. Some analysts caution that falling into below-average zones (e.g. below USD 111K) may provoke further downside cascades.
Taken together, these signals underscore that Bitcoin’s path is not linear. The Sanyaku Kōten signal may have given a directional nudge, but market structure, macro catalysts, and institutional flows will define whether it holds.
4. Lessons for Japanese and Global Crypto Investors
From the convergence of technical signaling and institutional behavior, several strategic takeaways emerge—especially for investors seeking to navigate this evolving landscape.
Think Beyond Crypto News
In prior years, tracking protocol upgrades, DeFi yield rates, or meme coin hype may have sufficed. But as Bitcoin becomes more correlated with macro regimes and institutional sentiment, one must monitor global monetary policy, inflation indicators, Treasury yields, and equity risk. The author emphasizes that the most successful investors will be those who can integrate macro insight with crypto-specific nuance.
Employ Risk Mitigation and Diversification
Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macro shocks suggests greater volatility risks. Don’t overconcentrate—allocate only what your portfolio can absorb. Build across asset classes: equities, bonds, selective altcoins, and crypto-native strategies. This helps buffer against regime shifts. The author recommends embracing this diversification mindset especially now, when Bitcoin is no longer isolated.
Use Technical and Quant Tools Wisely
Given that classic indicators like the Ichimoku Sanyaku Kōten may now bear relevance, investors can use them as guideposts—but not blind signals. Combine them with volume, institutional flow tracking (e.g. ETF inflows), derivatives positioning, and on-chain analytics. Avoid overreliance on a single indicator.
Be Ready to Adapt
Markets are in transition. What worked in crypto’s early days may not suffice now. Flexibility—adjusting between trend-following, mean reversion, and macro hedges—is increasingly vital. The article’s closing appeal is to maintain open-mindedness and humility about future trend shifts.
5. Summary & Outlook
The original article’s central narrative—that Bitcoin has triggered a powerful 三役好転 (Sanyaku Kōten) signal and may test USD 120,000—is bold but grounded in an evolving reality. What once may have seemed speculative or forced is gaining plausibility: Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a mainstream financial asset, one that overlaps with equity markets, macro cycles, and institutional strategies.
Recent developments—liquidations, regulatory reforms around ETFs, large-scale investments by financial institutions and corporations—both support and test this thesis. They embed Bitcoin more firmly in the global capital fabric, but also expose it to new forms of risk (macro shifts, correlation breakdowns, liquidity crunches).
For practitioners and investors seeking new crypto opportunities, the path forward involves combining traditional tools (like Ichimoku, moving averages, momentum) with macro awareness, flow data, and institutional signals. Bitcoin is not just “another crypto”—it is evolving into a core component of multi-asset portfolios.
In essence, the Sanyaku Kōten signal in Bitcoin may indeed represent more than a chart pattern. It may herald a new phase in which crypto participates in the same structural frameworks that define global finance. Whether it leads to USD 120,000 or higher depends on sustained follow-through—and on how well investors can integrate tradition and innovation going forward.
