Main Points :
- Bitcoin’s price rose moderately heading into the September 17 FOMC, and remains above a critical cost‐basis level of US$115,200, which about 95% of supply is now in profit.
- Futures & perpetual open interest (OI) showed major volatility: short squeezes before FOMC, and post‐rate‐cut long liquidations.
- Options open interest reached a record ~500,000 BTC, with the September 26 expiry being unusually large; max pain levels matter.
- Holding above US$115,200 is essential for maintaining bullish momentum; dropping below risks contraction toward US$105,500‐US$115,200.
- Support zones exist around US$110,000–114,000; resistance zones near US$117,000 and higher, which could cap upside.
1. FOMC Cuts & Market Reaction
Before the FOMC meeting (Sept 17, 2025), expectations of a 0.25% rate cut by the US Fed built momentum in the Bitcoin market. Leading into the meeting, Bitcoin stabilized around US$107,800, a level roughly equal to the cost basis of short‐term holders. On the day of the cut, the policy rate was lowered by 25 basis points; the market had already priced in much of this. After the announcement, Bitcoin pushed upward, with much of the supply now trading in profit.
2. Futures & Perpetual Open Interest Dynamics
- The perpetual futures Open Interest reached a cycle high of about 395,000 BTC on ~September 13, before dropping to roughly 378,000–384,000 BTC immediately after the FOMC meeting, as volatility triggered forced liquidations.
- Before FOMC, there was a strong short squeeze (i.e. many short positions forced to buy), which contributed to price increases. After the rate cut, with price adjusting, many leveraged long positions were flushed. The long side saw ~62% of positions liquidated in certain periods.
3. Options Market: Record Open Interest & Expiry Risks
- Options Open Interest (OI) in BTC has climbed to approximately 500,000 BTC, a record level. The September 26 expiry is expected to be the largest in Bitcoin’s history in terms of not only size but the buildup over nine months.
- Strike prices spread widely: puts around US$95,000, calls up to US$140,000. The max pain—the price at which the most option holders lose— is estimated near US$110,000–US$112,700 for many of these contracts. As expiry approaches, hedging flows from options could exert real pressure on the spot market
4. On-Chain Cost Base & Support/Resistance Zones
- A key metric: 95% of Bitcoin supply is now in profit, since price is above cost basis of US$115,200. This cost basis represents the average acquisition price of most holders.
- If price holds above this level, demand momentum may persist; if price falls below, a possible contraction toward the US$105,500–US$115,200 range becomes likely.
- There is dense support between US$110,000–114,000, where a large share of supply was acquired, which may act as a buffer. Resistance appears near US$117,000, possibly forming a ceiling in the short te
Recent Developments (Beyond the Original Report)
- September has been exceptionally strong: Bitcoin is up ~8% so far in September 2025, on track to be its best September since 2012.
- Volatility has somewhat eased compared with earlier bull cycles: drawdowns from all‐time highs so far are much shallower than in past cycles. Low actual volatility, which can both help confirm uptrends and also create fragile ceilings.
- ETF flows are also reinforcing the pattern: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have reportedly seen inflows, adding institutional interest and capital entering spots rather than just derivatives. This adds to the bullish underpinning.
- Options expiries approaching (especially September 26 for BTC) may serve as pivot points. These tend to cause greater price sensitivity around “max pain” levels. Watch for spikes in implied volatility and hedging flows in the week(s) ahead.
What to Watch Next: Probable Scenarios & Risk Factors
Here are some possible paths forward, depending on how key levels behave, and also what risk factors to monitor.
| Scenario | What Must Happen | Likely Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | Bitcoin remains convincingly above US$115,200; strong demand from spot/ETF flows; options expiry does not pull price down; resistance near ~US$117,000 broken | Price could push toward US$120,000+; renewed momentum; short squeezes possible; confidence from institutional buyers increases |
| Range-consolidation | Price fluctuates between US$110,000 – 117,000; options expiry causes mild capitulation toward max‐pain; mixed sentiment; derivative markets balanced | Bitcoin likely to drift, possibly volatile, but without strong trend either way; supply/demand equilibrium; sideways trading |
| Bearish risk | Price drops below US$115,200, then breaks down support near US$110,000–114,000; liquidity dries; macro headwinds; high leverage unwinds | Contraction toward US$105,500 or lower; risk of downward spiral; weak holders may exit; possibility of re‐test of lower ranges (e.g. US$100,000 or below) |
Risk factors include: macro policy (Fed moves, inflation data), possible negative surprises from CPI/PPI; global economic shocks; regulatory pressures; sudden shifts in derivative markets (e.g. liquidity crises, exchanges issues); high leverage remains a danger. Also watch for spikes in volatility around options expiry.
Conclusio
Bitcoin’s recent behavior following the Federal Reserve’s September rate cut shows a market at a critical inflection point. With a large portion of supply now in profit (price above US$115,200), derivative markets (futures, perpetuals, options) are dictating much of the near‐term behavior. Holding above key cost bases and support zones will be essential for any sustained upward move. The upcoming options expiries, especially September 26, may intensify volatility and help define whether Bitcoin continues higher or retreats into a consolidation or correction phase.
For those looking for new crypto assets or next revenue sources, this means now could be a time to monitor projects involved in derivatives infrastructure, options/hedging tools, risk analytics, and protocols exposed to high leverage. Also, keeping an eye on macro conditions is still crucial: improvements in inflation or dovish pivots may open bullish catalysts; adverse surprises can trigger rapid downside moves.
