Main Points :
- The US and UK have signed a Tech Prosperity Deal, committing to major cooperation in AI, quantum computing, nuclear and telecommunications technologies.
- Quantum computing threatens current cryptographic standards (RSA, ECDSA, etc.), with possible real impact within 5-10 years unless mitigation accelerates.
- There is growing investment from US tech firms in UK infrastructure: data centers, AI supercomputers, GPU clusters, etc.
- Regulatory and standardization efforts (e.g. quantum taskforces, post-quantum cryptography (PQC), NIST standards) are becoming central.
- For crypto practitioners: exposure of old wallets, signature schemes, and public keys to quantum attacks is a risk; migration plans and quantum resistance must be considered now.
Introduction: The US-UK Tech Agreement
In September 2025, the United States and the United Kingdom formalized a broad collaboration through what has been called the Tech Prosperity Deal (valued at around £31 billion, approximately $42 billion) to deepen cooperation in artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, nuclear energy, and telecommunications.
The agreement is not legally binding in the sense of forcing changes in existing treaties, but rather proposes establishment of joint task forces, research programs, and collaborative infrastructure development.
Some concrete components include:
- A quantum task group to work on quantum hardware, software, algorithms, and interoperability standards.
- Joint efforts on 6G telecommunications networks.
- Significant private investment commitments: Microsoft, NVIDIA, Google, OpenAI etc., pledging billions into AI infrastructure, data centers, and compute capabilities in the UK.
Quantum Computing & Cryptography: Threat and Timeline
What Quantum Means for Crypto Security
Quantum computers, once sufficiently powerful, threaten to break classical asymmetric cryptographic schemes such as RSA, Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC / ECDSA), and other discrete logarithm-based methods. Those are widely used in blockchain systems for signing transactions, securing wallets, consensus protocols etc.
In addition, hash functions and proof-of-work systems may also be affected: Grover’s algorithm could reduce the security margin of hashing, potentially enabling hash collision or other vulnerabilities.
How Soon?
According to recent analyses:
- Quantum computers capable of breaking current crypto (so-called “cryptographically relevant quantum computers” or CRQCs) are probably still 5-10 years away, depending on progress in error correction, logical qubit scaling, circuit depth, and practical coherence.
- However, because encrypted data can be harvested now (even if unreadable now) and decrypted later when quantum capability advances (“harvest now, decrypt later” risk), there is urgency for crypto assets and services to plan ahead.
Recent Developments & Responses
Industry Investment & Infrastructure Growth
- Microsoft has pledged the largest share of investment (~£22 billion) in UK AI and cloud infrastructure, including a supercomputer with tens of thousands of advanced GPUs.
- NVIDIA will deploy ~120,000 GPUs in the UK to build Europe’s largest AI cluster.
- Google is investing ~£5 billion for a data center and expanding its research via DeepMind.
Regulatory & Standards Progress
- The US-UK deal explicitly includes task groups for quantum interoperability standards, which implies collaborative standardization of what quantum-resistant or hybrid schemes will be acceptable.
- Work on post-quantum cryptography is advancing: NIST has already released a number of PQC standards (e.g. CRYSTALS-Kyber for key encapsulation, CRYSTALS-Dilithium, SPHINCS+ for signatures) and selected additional backup algorithms like HQC.
Warnings from Cybersecurity Authorities
- In the UK, the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) has issued guidance that large organizations (especially in critical infrastructure) should plan to adopt post-quantum cryptography, identifying priority services by 2028, critical overhauls by 2031, full transition by 2035.
- Studies show many enterprises are still unprepared: fewer than ~5 % have formal quantum transition plans. This reflects gaps in skills, awareness, cost and complexity.
Implications for Crypto Investors and Blockchain Practitioners
Risk Areas to Monitor
- Old wallets/public keys: Many early Bitcoin / crypto wallets exposed their public keys (or used weaker cryptography), which could potentially be targeted once quantum attacks become feasible.
- Signature algorithms: ECDSA in particular is vulnerable; some blockchains may need migration or hybrid schemes.
- Consensus / Proof-of-Work: If hash functions or PoW systems become weaker under quantum attacks, there may be risks of attacks, rewrites, double spending, or other integrity issues.
Opportunities for Early Movers
- Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) implementation: Projects that integrate or switch to PQC sooner may gain trust and competitive advantage.
- Quantum Key Distribution (QKD), hybrid cryptographic schemes, “crypto-agile” designs will be in demand.
- Blockchain platforms and protocols that build in flexibility for future algorithm upgrades will be more resilient.
- RegTech / firms offering security & compliance around post-quantum standards are likely to see increased interest and investment.
Strategic Recommendations
- Begin audit of current cryptographic usage: identify where old keys, signatures, or algorithms are weak or exposed.
- Develop quantum-resistance roadmap: decide which PQC algorithms to adopt, test for performance trade-offs, plan hybrid transitions.
- Monitor and engage with standardization bodies: NIST, ISO, UK/US task groups etc.
- Stay abreast of infrastructure trends: deployments of large GPU clusters, AI supercomputing, 6G, nuclear energy as power sources, since power supply and computational capacity are increasingly relevant for blockchain operations.
- Prioritize risk for data that must remain secret for long time periods (e.g. stored ciphertext, archives) — because that data might be decrypted later once quantum capability emerges.
Recent Trends Specific to the Tech Prosperity Deal
- The deal aligns both public and private investment: public R&D cooperation is being matched with very large hardware/infrastructure investments from global tech firms.
- There are explicit job creation and regional growth targets (e.g. AI Growth Zone in northeast England).
- The deal signals geopolitical competition: strengthening supply chain resilience (including for AI hardware, semiconductors, communications) and reducing dependence on foreign fuel/nuclear fuels.
Conclusion
The US-UK Tech Prosperity Deal marks a significant inflection point for emerging technologies — especially AI, quantum computing, and cryptography. For the crypto and blockchain community, this presents both risks and opportunities.
The risks are nontrivial: current cryptographic foundations (signatures, keys, public key infrastructure, etc.) may be broken by sufficiently advanced quantum computers; once broken, assets or data could be compromised or retroactively undermined. Because of that, “wait and see” is not a safe strategy.
On the other hand, early movers who integrate post-quantum cryptographic techniques, who choose protocols and platforms with upgradeability, and who follow standardization efforts will likely benefit — in security, trust, and perhaps regulatory favor. Investments into infrastructure (AI clusters, quantum hardware, etc.) will change the computational landscape and may influence where and how decentralized networks operate.
For anyone seeking new crypto assets or sources of revenue, one should evaluate not only yield or tokenomics, but the crypto’s quantum risk exposure: how exposed is it to quantum attacks? Does it have a path to PQC? How strong is its public key infrastructure? These questions may soon separate durable projects from those that are left behind.
