Main Points :
- Bitcoin is trading in a critical range near US$108,000–$116,000 ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting
- A failure to break resistance around US$116,000 may lead to a test of support near US$107,000–$108,000
- Inflation data (latest CPI ~2.9%) and labor market softness are creating mixed signals for Fed policy, complicating forecasts
- Strong institutional inflows via spot Bitcoin ETFs are supporting the upside; recent weeks have seen daily ETF flows in the hundreds of millions of dollars
- Short-term holders realizing profits are creating selling pressure; technical indicators suggest fragility if momentum fails
Recent Price Range and Key Levels
Bitcoin recently has been consolidating in a range between US$108,000 and US$116,000, with current price hovering near the upper end.
- Resistance: ~$116,000 — a strong level that must be broken for renewed bullish momentum.
- Immediate support: ~US$107,000–US$108,000 — failure to hold this level could lead to a pullback.
Macro Backdrop: Inflation, Labor, and Fed Expectations
Recent U.S. inflation (CPI) rose by ~0.4% month-over-month in August, pushing the year-over-year rate to about 2.9%, higher than prior months.
Meanwhile, labor market data is weaker: job creation has slowed, and unemployment claims have ticked up, which feed into expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates, though perhaps only modestly (25 basis points) in the near term.
These mixed macro signals create a tension: if inflation remains sticky (around 3%) it restrains aggressive rate cuts; if labor market weakness continues, pressure builds for dovish Fed stance. The FOMC meeting is therefore seen as a pivotal moment for market direction.
Institutional Demand and ETF Flows
Institutional interest via spot Bitcoin ETFs has been one of the strongest drivers in recent weeks:
- Over US$1.7 billion flowed into Bitcoin ETFs over a 4-day period, including large allocations by BlackRock’s IBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC, etc.
- This marked a reversal from late August when some ETFs faced outflows.
- On-chain data shows institutions are accumulating, which reduces available supply on exchanges and strengthens support for price moves upward.
Risks: Profit Taking and Fragility
While institutional demand is strong, there are several warning signs:
- Short-term holders are realizing profits at elevated levels, which increases selling pressure.
- The spot market — actual buying outside ETFs/futures — is seen by some analysts (e.g. Glassnode) as weaker. Conviction among retail and spot traders is not as strong.
- Inflation that fails to come down or any hawkish tone from the Fed could quickly reverse sentiment.
Possible Scenarios
Based on how the Fed communicates its policy outlook, there are broadly two paths:
| Scenario | What Needs to Happen | Possible Price Target |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish outcome | Fed signals more aggressive easing or clearer commitment to rate cuts, inflation fades, institutional demand continues strong | US$120,000 – US$125,000 (or more if momentum accelerates) |
| Bearish / Neutral outcome | Fed is cautious, inflation remains sticky, weak spot demand, or profit taking dominates | Retest of support around US$107,000–$108,000; possibly dip below if liquidity dries up |
Recent Trends to Watch
- Daily ETF inflows and their size (e.g. IBIT, FBTC) — will they continue or taper off?
- CPI, PPI, labor data in the coming weeks — especially signals that inflation pressures are easing or accelerating.
- Technical indicators: whether BTC can break and hold above US$116,000, and how it behaves near support lines.
- Behavior of short-term holders and futures/open interest — liquidation risk if sentiment sours.
Conclusion
English Translation of Original Article (Full)
Here is the translation of the original Japanese article, in full, into English:
Bitcoin Faces Decline Post-FOMC: Key Level at US$107,000
With the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for September 17, the cryptocurrency market is entering a critical juncture. The price of Bitcoin (BTC) may fluctuate significantly depending on messages concerning the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy revealed during the meeting. Market sentiment increasingly views the Fed’s posture as determining whether Bitcoin ascends toward US$125,000 or falls back into the US$107,000 range.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading near the upper bounds of the important price corridor between US$108,000 and US$116,000. For market momentum to recover, it must decisively break above resistance at US$116,000. If it fails, there is a likelihood of a drop toward support around US$107,500.
Shawn Young, Chief Analyst at exchange MEXC, predicts that the FOMC outcome will produce large price swings. If the Fed suggests aggressive monetary easing, Bitcoin may target US$120,000 to US$125,000. On the other hand, if the Fed shows caution in discussing future rate cuts, price may test support around US$107,000 to US$108,000.
On-chain data suggests that short-term holders taking profits are creating selling pressure. Meanwhile, over the past week, US$2.3 billion has flowed into Bitcoin ETFs, hinting that institutional investors are positioning ahead of the FOMC.
Sygnum Bank’s Head of Investments notes that while weakness in the labor market supports rate cuts, nearly 3% inflation may force the Fed to be more cautious. Farzam Ehsani, CEO of VALR, states that sustained monetary easing is indispensable for further upward movement in Bitcoin.
In the short term, Bitcoin’s direction will depend on how the Fed addresses inflation and employment, and what path of monetary policy it lays out.
