Main Points :
- Arthur Hayes (BitMEX co-founder) believes that we are entering the real phase of a crypto bull cycle, not approaching its end.
- He expects political motivations—especially in the U.S.—to drive large-scale monetary easing starting in 2026.
- Massive liquidity injections are likely via multiple channels: via rate cuts, fiscal stimulus, regulatory easing of financial institutions, and government support for mortgage-agencies.
- Bitcoin is viewed as a “hard asset” with fixed supply (~21 million) that benefits when fiat currency supply increases and gets diluted.
- Investors should shift focus from short-term fluctuations to multi-year macroeconomic trends.
- Key resistance levels (e.g. ≈ $117,000) and macro indicators suggest there is still upward room before a top.
Political Drivers and Monetary Policy Outlook
Arthur Hayes argues that the current Bitcoin and broader crypto bull run is not winding down, but is entering its “core phase.” With rising expectations for interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve, Hayes foresees that political incentives—especially related to the U.S. midterm elections in 2026 and presidential elections in 2028—will push lawmakers toward more aggressive fiscal stimulus (tax cuts, checks, etc.). These policies, in his view, combined with pressure on the Fed, will lead to a larger monetary easing beginning mid-2026.
Channels for Liquidity and Credit Expansion
Hayes highlights several mechanisms via which trillions of dollars of liquidity or credit could enter the financial system:
- Regulatory easing for large banks: if constraints on banks like Wells Fargo are loosened, they could expand holdings of securities (e.g. Treasury bonds) and other assets.
- Government-sponsored enterprises in housing finance (e.g. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) could be leveraged: if their special status or regulatory oversight changes, their balance sheets may be used to supply credit to the housing market.
- Direct fiscal stimulus, tax cuts, social transfers or checks, all are tools that could be used to increase effective demand and money supply.
Bitcoin as a Beneficiary of Currency Debasement
With fiat currencies being diluted via money printing and credit expansion, Hayes stresses that fixed-supply assets like Bitcoin are designed to benefit. He argues that many traditional assets (stocks, real estate, etc.) may underperform when inflation or currency devaluation is taken into account; Bitcoin, due to its fixed cap (~21 million coins), becomes more attractive in that environment.
Market Timing, Resistance Levels, and Investor Mindset
Hayes warns investors against trying to time short-term tops or chasing speculative profit quickly. He suggests that patience and macroeconomic awareness are more valuable: judging Bitcoin over several years rather than weeks.
Technical levels matter: for example, the level of $117,000 is being watched as a key resistance for Bitcoin. Those levels may correspond to large prior supply pockets, which could act as sell-pressure zones. If the market clears these levels, more upward movement may follow.
Updated Trends and Risks
Since the original article, more sources are confirming Hayes’s perspective:
- Several analysts and media outlets (e.g. CoinDesk, AMBCrypto) report that many investors are underestimating how much liquidity and fiscal stimulus could yet emerge.
- Some expect Bitcoin could reach $150,000-$200,000 if favorable macroeconomic tailwinds (rate cuts, stimulus) materialize.
- On the other hand, risks include inflation proving stickier than expected, political change that reverses easing, regulatory clampdowns, or macro shocks (e.g. debt crises in other regions, currency crises) that could reduce risk appetite. Hayes himself and other commentators note that eventual market peaks often end badly, and sell-pressure builds in supply zones.
Conclusion
In summary, Arthur Hayes’s view is that we are not nearing the end of Bitcoin’s bull market, but rather entering its most important phase—one driven by political pressure, monetary easing, and liquidity expansion. For those seeking new cryptocurrencies or revenue sources in blockchain, several implications emerge:
- Projects and assets that benefit from inflation or currency debasement (e.g. fixed supply tokens, scarce digital assets) may see outsized gains.
- Stablecoins, DeFi protocols, or financial primitives tied to credit expansion are likely to see increased activity. Indeed some sources suggest that trillions may flow into stablecoins and related infrastructure.
- Investors should watch macro policy signals (like rate cuts, fiscal stimulus announcements) and regulatory shifts, more than purely technical or short-term crypto market noise.
While no forecast is guaranteed, Hayes’s framework provides a way to understand why Bitcoin’s current strength may persist well into 2026. Those entering now might have to be patient, but the payoff—if his thesis is correct—could be significant.
