Main Points :
- Bitcoin has dropped near US$115,000, facing a critical resistance and support zone; weekly closing above US$114,000 is seen as key to maintaining bullish momentum.
- Strong order-book demand and liquidity appear just below US$115,000, making this a “watch-closely” level.
- Market anticipation of a US Federal Reserve rate cut is strengthening, seen as supportive for risk assets including Bitcoin.
- On-chain metrics and derivatives activity suggest optimism: non-zero Bitcoin wallets rising, high profit in circulating supply, but spot demand & ETF inflows show weakness in some reports.
- Recent institutional re-entry and macro conditions have bolstered confidence; predictions for longer-term upside (e.g. US$120,000+, or multi-year projection to much higher levels) are being floated.
Bitcoin’s Recent Price Action and Technical Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has been moving near the US$115,000 mark, slipping slightly below during late-week trading and as the market awaited important macroeconomic signals. Analysts note that for bulls to maintain control, Bitcoin needs to close the week above approximately US$114,000.
Order-book data shows thick liquidity just under US$115,000, which could provide strong support if downside pressures increase. But overhead resistance in the US$116,000 to US$117,000 range remains a hurdle. A sustained break above that resistance could open the path toward US$119,000-122,000 in some bullish scenarios.
Support zones include US$114,000 (especially for a weekly close), and lower supports nearer US$108,000 in case of more severe pullbacks.
Macro & Policy Drivers: The Fed, Inflation, and Risk Assets
A key context for Bitcoin’s recent moves is the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates. Markets currently nearly unanimously expect at least a 0.25% cut.
Inflation data — particularly from the producer price index and other leading indicators — have shown signs of relief, adding to optimism. Still, many caution that inflation surprises or hawkish statements from Fed officials could reverse sentiment rapidly.
Risk-on appetite has improved: assets correlated with growth and speculative risk are performing better, and Bitcoin has benefited insofar as it is often viewed a “risk asset” under such regimes.
On-Chain, Institutional, and Sentiment Signals
Several metrics indicate that underlying network strength and holder behavior are supporting a potentially stronger BTC run:
- The number of non-zero Bitcoin wallets (addresses holding some BTC) has moved to a year-to-date high, suggesting broader participation.
- A large portion (>90%) of circulating supply is in profit, which in past cycles has been associated with upward momentum — though that also increases the risk of profit-taking.
- Institutional players are showing signs of re-entry: ETF inflows, rising long exposure, and accumulation by long-term holders.
- There is some weakness in spot demand in certain markets, and dominance of Bitcoin among all cryptocurrencies has slightly dipped as funds flow into altcoins. This could limit upside in the short term.
Recent Predictions and Longer-Term Views
Some analysts are becoming more bullish on Bitcoin over the medium to long term:
- Bitwise projects that by 2035, Bitcoin could reach US$1.3 million, driven by institutional demand, limited supply, and macroeconomic pressures (especially concerns over fiat debasement).
- Other voices believe that new all-time highs are still possible in the nearer term (beyond US$124,500), if the necessary supports and momentum persist.
Risks and What Could Go Wrong
- If Bitcoin fails to close above US$114,000 on a weekly basis, that could signal loss of short-term bullish structure. Downside risk toward US$108,000 or lower is possible.
- Macro risks remain significant: inflation surprises, delayed or paused Fed rate cuts, or hawkish statements could reverse risk appetite sharply.
- Regulatory headwinds: although many laws and regulations are moving toward greater clarity, uncertainty remains, especially around tax, commodities regulation, and global cross-border rules.
- Overextension: With so much of the supply in profit, the temptation for profit-taking could lead to increased volatility.
Recent Developments
To augment the original article’s timeline, here are newer related developments as of mid-September 2025:
- Institutional demand is noticeably returning, with ETF inflows rising and more traditional asset managers increasing exposure to Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin has recently broken above US$115,000, though holding above that level is still under stress.
- Some technical indicators, especially in derivatives (futures & options), hint at exhaustion of selling pressure, which may support a consolidation or upward breakout.
- Global adoption metrics (wallet numbers, institutional activity) continue to trend upward. Regulatory clarity in some jurisdictions is improving, which supports investor confidence.
What to Watch Next
Several key indicators and events could decide where Bitcoin goes from here:
- Weekly close above US$114,000 — this seems to be a threshold for the bullish case to stay alive.
- Whether Bitcoin can decisively break through and hold above US$116,000-117,000 resistance.
- Fed’s rate decision, plus accompanying commentary (especially via Chair Powell) for indications of future cuts or tightness.
- Inflation reports, especially PPI and CPI, to see if inflation is cooling or not.
- Momentum in institutional flows & ETF activity; whether spot demand recovers.
- Market dominance shift between Bitcoin and altcoins: large flows into altcoins could reduce BTC’s relative strength.
Final Summary
Bitcoin is at a potentially inflection point. The zone around US$114,000-US$115,000 is acting as a major make-or-break area. If Bitcoin can hold above this zone into the weekly close and especially push through resistance around US$116,000-117,000, a bullish continuation toward US$120,000+ is plausible. Meanwhile, macro factors (rate cuts, inflation cooling) and institutional interest are working in its favor. But risks are non-trivial: failure to hold key supports, macro surprises, regulatory setbacks, or a shift into profit-taking could lead to correction. For those interested in discovering new crypto assets or evaluating practical blockchain use cases, the coming few weeks are likely to reveal whether Bitcoin leads again, or whether the momentum shifts elsewhere.
