Main Points ：
- All 30 of Bitcoin’s top indicators show no red flags—no blow-off top yet.
- Key on‑chain metrics like the Puell Multiple (≈ 1.39) and MVRV Z‑score remain neutral, far from danger zones.
- New short-term holders hold modest gains, while new arrivals are in losses—indicating a shake-out.
- A $70M long‑liquidation at $111K reset leverage, lowered open interest, and reduced selling pressure—healthy for a rebound.
- The 20‑week EMA (
$108K) remains intact as dynamic support; a break above points toward new highs, while a fall could test the 50‑week EMA ($95K).
Introduction
In recent days, concern has been rising among crypto enthusiasts that Bitcoin (BTC) may have already peaked for 2025, after failing to sustain a rally beyond its all‑time high near $124,000. Critics argue that the drop signals an end to the bullish cycle. However, prominent analysts like “Merlijn The Trader” dismiss the notion of a “$124,000 ceiling” as mere noise, not a death knell for the bull market.
1. No Red Signals on 30 Peak Indicators
Merlijn The Trader emphasized in a Tuesday post that none of Bitcoin’s most trusted 30 peak indicators are flashing a red light. Unlike prior cycles, where multiple signals lit up during blow‑off top phases, today’s landscape remains clear—suggesting more room to run.
2. On-Chain Metrics Remain Neutral
Historical peak points often coincide with overshoot signals in on‑chain metrics. For instance:
- Puell Multiple—which tracks miner revenue as a multiple of its 365‑day moving average—is currently at approximately 1.39, well below the dangerous 2.2 levels seen at past highs.
- MVRV Z‑score—which compares market value to realized value—also remains in a neutral zone, far from the overvalued extremes that marked prior tops.
Insert after this paragraph: A chart showing MVRV Z-Score vs. Bitcoin price history provides clarity on how close (or far) current readings are from prior overbought extremes.
3. Weak Hands Shake-Out Strengthens the Market
On‑chain data from CryptoQuant analyzed by Qlazzy‑Block highlights a clear generational shift: new investors (holding under 1 month) are sitting on an average unrealized loss of –3.5% and are likely selling. Meanwhile, short‑term holders (1–6 months) are up around +4.5% on average and holding firm.
Qlazzy‑Block interprets this as a bullish structural development: the market is shedding weak hands and consolidating Bitcoin into the hands of more committed holders—laying a stronger foundation for the next rally.
4. $70M Liquidation Cleanses Leverage and Selling Pressure
On‑chain analyst Amr Taha points to a dramatic event: when Bitcoin dropped below $111K on Binance, approximately $70 million worth of long positions were liquidated. This liquidation slashed open interest and triggered a near‑$1 billion collapse in cumulative net taker volume—indicating a flush of leveraged selling pressure.
According to Taha, this “reset” structurally healed the market. Now, a potential magnet zone lies between $117K–$118K, which could draw price recovery and set the stage for a short‑squeeze and renewed bullish momentum. Downside support, however, remains thin below $105K.
5. Technical Structure: 20-Week EMA as Support; Paths for Rebound or Deeper Correction
Viewed on the weekly chart, the recent BTC drop feels more like a healthy correction than a reversal.
- Since 2023, Bitcoin has repeatedly corrected by 20–30% while maintaining its uptrend. The latest ~12% dip still keeps it above the 20‑week exponential moving average (EMA), around $108K—a level that has acted as dynamic support throughout the rally.
If BTC bounces off the 20‑week EMA, it could soon test and exceed the $125.5K all‑time high and even target $150K by year‑end.
However, if it breaks below this level, a deeper correction may ensue, pushing price toward the 50‑week EMA, near $95.3K—historically a regional bottom in past bull runs.
Conclusion
Although Bitcoin recently retreated from its $124,000 high, none of the key analytical indicators suggest an end to the 2025 bull run. On‑chain metrics remain calm, weak hands have been shaken out, and major leverage has been cleansed. The 20‑week EMA continues to hold as support—a sign of bullish structure.
If this level reasserts itself, Bitcoin could well surpass its all‑time high and push toward $150K or more by year‑end. Conversely, a breakdown below would risk a deeper pullback toward the low $90Ks—but for now, the data tilts bullish.
