Key takeaways：
- Price context in USD: Bitcoin rebounded to roughly $117,200 (from about $111,700–$112,400 at last week’s lows), helped by easier Fed expectations and improving ETF flows. Conversion used ¥147.66 per $ (Aug 8, 2025).
- Macro pulse: A soft July jobs report (+73k) and weaker ISM Services PMI (50.1) tilted markets toward a September rate cut, but investors are laser-focused on July CPI (Aug 12). Consensus expects a slight YoY uptick.
- Policy catalysts: President Trump’s executive order opens a path for crypto and other alternatives in 401(k)s, potentially a medium-term demand tailwind for digital assets.
- Fed personnel churn: Fed Gov. Adriana Kugler resigned (effective Aug 8) and Stephen Miran was tapped to fill the vacant seat—events that investors are reading as dovish-leaning for rates.
- Flows turned the corner: After 3 sessions of outflows (Aug 1, 4, 5), US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw three straight days of inflows (Aug 6–8), which supported price sentiment.
- Technical lens: The market is wrestling with overhead resistance around $119k–$120k; a clean break would open room for trend continuation, but CPI risk argues for caution.
1) Market recap: A USD view of Japan’s BTC rally narrative
Japan-focused coverage noted Bitcoin’s recovery to the “¥17.3M zone.” Using ¥147.66 per $ (Aug 8), that’s about $117,200. The market slumped early last week toward ¥16.5M–¥16.6M (~$111,700–$112,400), then reversed as easing bets re-emerged and policy headlines supported risk appetite. The prior high-traffic resistance band remains $119k–$120k, with price now coiling just beneath.
[Insert Figure 2: BTC/JPY reference levels converted to USD]
The short-term driver of this rebound was a macro-policy cocktail: a disappointing July jobs print (+73k) with downward revisions to earlier months, a softer ISM Services PMI (50.1), and clear guidance that July CPI drops on Tue, Aug 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET—all of which recalibrated the rate-cut debate into September.
2) Macro: Data softened, cuts back on the table—but CPI is the arbiter
The Employment Situation (Aug 1) showed +73,000 jobs in July—well under trend—and unusually large downward revisions to prior months. Markets took that as a signal of slowing momentum in labor demand. Meanwhile, ISM Services PMI slipped to 50.1 (from 50.8), still barely expanding but pointing to a fragile service sector. Combined, these reports nudged Fed-cut odds higher.
The macro hinge now is the July CPI on Aug 12. Calendars confirm the release timing, and several previews point to YoY CPI edging up (consensus ~2.8% vs 2.7% in June)—with some outlets highlighting tariff-related upward pressure into year-end. If realized, that modest re-acceleration could cap risk assets in the very short run, especially with Bitcoin pressing known resistance.
[Insert Figure 3: US CPI YoY—June vs. July consensus]
3) Policy catalysts: A friendlier backdrop for crypto demand
Two Washington developments mattered for digital assets:
- Fed personnel changes. Fed Gov. Adriana Kugler resigned effective Aug 8, and Stephen Miran—seen by some as more sympathetic to rate cuts—was nominated to fill the vacant seat. While a single governor doesn’t decide policy, markets read the combination (plus the broader chair succession chatter) as marginally dovish for the rate path and risk assets.
- 401(k) executive order. On Aug 7, President Trump signed an executive order instructing agencies to clear a path for alternative assets—including cryptocurrency—in 401(k) plans. It doesn’t mandate crypto in retirement menus, and fiduciary hurdles remain, but the signal is structurally constructive for the asset class by lowering legal uncertainty and encouraging product development across plan providers.
Separately, weekly previews in mainstream finance stress that CPI will dominate near-term market direction this week, reinforcing why crypto traders are cautious into Tuesday’s print.
4) ETF flow picture: Outflows ended; inflows returned
A core pillar for Bitcoin’s 2024–2025 price action has been US spot ETF flow. Farside Investors’ tracker shows:
- Outflows: Aug 1: –$812.3m, Aug 4: –$323.5m, Aug 5: –$196.2m
- Inflows: Aug 6: +$91.6m, Aug 7: +$277.4m, Aug 8: +$403.9m
That three-day inflow streak coincided with BTC’s rebound toward the $117k handle. Sustained inflows would likely be necessary to absorb any macro-driven volatility post-CPI.
[Insert Figure 1: US spot Bitcoin ETF daily net flows, Aug 1–8, 2025]
5) Technical setup: Respect the ceiling, watch the reaction
Technically, the market is still grappling with overhead resistance near $119k–$120k. Clearing and holding above that zone with post-CPI confirmation would argue for trend continuation; failure at the ceiling—especially if CPI surprises hot—could see a quick re-test toward last week’s $112k area. Bitbank’s Japan-focused weekly view flags this same band as the region to watch.
Key levels (approximate)
- Resistance: $119k–$120k (prior congestion)
- Near-term support: $116k (recent reclaim)
- Deeper support: $112k (last week’s lows), then $108k–$110k (spring pivot cluster)
6) Scenarios through the CPI window
- Base case (slight beat: CPI ~2.8% YoY, in line): Chop under $120k, with intraday spikes fading unless ETF inflows re-accelerate. Range $114k–$120k.
- Hot CPI (>2.8% YoY): Quick rejection at $119k–$120k, impulse lower toward $112k. Watch real yields and the dollar for confirmation.
- Cool CPI (≤2.7% YoY): Momentum break over $120k, chase to fresh cycle highs if flows stay positive. Risk: a “buy the rumor, sell the news” reversal if ETF demand doesn’t follow through.
7) What the 401(k) order could mean in practice
The executive order is not immediate demand, but it lowers friction for plan sponsors and providers to consider diversified products that include crypto sleeves. Expect a lag—months to quarters—as the Department of Labor and SEC clarify fiduciary processes and safe harbors. Still, this broadens the long-run addressable pool beyond ETFs and direct exchange users. For builders, it hints at future distribution channels (target-date funds with small crypto allocations, managed accounts, annuity hybrids).
8) Risks to the constructive view
- Data credibility noise: Political attention on BLS and revisions has raised narrative risk around US data. Markets could swing more on each release.
- Tariff-driven inflation: Several outlets see tariff effects lifting inflation into year-end, which could slow the Fed’s easing cadence.
- Regulatory implementation risk: The 401(k) order still relies on agency rulemaking and plan-sponsor adoption; uptake could be uneven.
- ETF flow sensitivity: The price path remains flow-dependent; renewed outflows could quickly undercut momentum.
9) Practical ideas for investors and builders
- Spot-holders / swing traders: Into CPI, manage risk near $119k–$120k; look for high-volume acceptance above $120k before adding. If CPI is hot, watch $112k for responsive bids.
- Portfolio allocators: Given the policy backdrop, a small-but-persistent allocation (through regulated wrappers) continues to be defensible, with the understanding that macro (CPI, growth) is the near-term volatility driver.
- Builders / B2B2C fintech: Prepare for retirement-channel integrations—data pipes, compliance tooling, and education packs for plan sponsors—anticipating gradual inclusion of crypto within diversified products tied to the 401(k) ecosystem.
10) Bottom line
Bitcoin’s recovery back toward $117k is real but unproven until CPI passes and resistance at $119k–$120k is cleared with strong ETF inflows behind the move. Policy winds have turned incrementally favorable—Fed personnel shifts and the 401(k) order—yet macro still rules the tape this week. Traders should respect both sides of the range and let the post-CPI flow decide the breakout.
