Main Points:
- A 19% decline in three weeks has left XRP stuck below $3.10–3.00 resistance, testing the $2.65 support level.
- Whales have offloaded over 640 million XRP (≈$340 million) since July 9, adding distribution pressure.
- The $2.65 mark coincides with the quarterly VWAP and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2025 Q1 rally; a breach could negate Q3 gains.
- Bullish fractal patterns and divergences offer upside scenarios, but a failing of $2.65 risks a full retrace to the $2.00 range.
- Broader market sentiment hints at short-term rebounds toward $2.80–2.95; long-term targets up to $4.00 are within view if key zones hold.
1. Overview of Recent Price Action
Over the three weeks following XRP’s spring high of $3.65 on July 18, the token has surrendered roughly 19% of its value, settling back under the $3.00–$3.10 resistance band. Attempts to reclaim that zone have repeatedly failed, and by the weekend XRP slid into the $2.66–$2.80 support area, only to rebound modestly thereafter. This price weakness aligns with market-wide altcoin corrections, where traders are rebalancing positions ahead of potential August catalysts.
Insert Figure 1: XRP Price Trend (July 18–25)
2. Whale Activity and Distribution Pressure
On-chain data from CryptoQuant indicates that large XRP holders—so-called “whales”—have been steadily reducing their positions. From July 9 through July 15, the 90-day moving average net flow for whale addresses totaled a negative 640 million XRP, equivalent to about $340 million, suggesting sustained selling pressure on the market. This sizable outflow may stem from profit-taking after XRP’s multi-month rally or repositioning for alternative opportunities.
Insert Figure 2: Whale Net Flow (July 9–15)
3. The Critical $2.65 Support Zone
The $2.65 level has emerged as a linchpin for XRP’s bull thesis. It matches both the quarterly volume-weighted average price (VWAP) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the Q1 2025 rally from roughly $2.00 to $3.65. Many institutional traders view VWAP as a “fair value” benchmark, and its conjunction with a key Fibonacci level amplifies its importance. Should $2.65 give way, technical models warn of a full retracement—returning price to the $2.00–$2.10 range and erasing Q3 gains. Dom, a noted crypto analyst, cautions that a decisive break below this zone would “inflict severe chart damage and invalidate the short-term bullish case.”
4. Bullish Technical Patterns and Divergences
Despite bearish near-term risks, several chart patterns hint at potential bounces:
- Bullish Fractal Breakout: XRP is mirroring a fractal from its early-year rally that preceded a 70% surge, pointing to a possible repeat toward $3.75–$4.00 if key resistance at $3.10 is reclaimed.
- RSI Divergence: On the four-hour chart, XRP’s price lows have outpaced falling lows in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggesting waning sell-pressure and a higher-low momentum signal. Analysts note that maintaining support above $2.80–$2.95 could trigger short-term relief rallies of 10–20%.
If these patterns play out, traders could target the $3.10 resistance first, followed by the $3.65 zone and beyond. However, the validity of these scenarios hinges on preserving the $2.65 foundation.
5. Broader Market Trends and Sentiment
Beyond XRP’s internal dynamics, macro factors are at play:
- Altcoin Rotation: With Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidating around multi-week highs, capital is rotating into promising altcoins; XRP may benefit if it secures technical footing.
- Regulatory Clarity: Following favorable legal developments in the SEC case, institutional confidence in XRP remains elevated, possibly underpinning mid-term support.
- Yield Programs: New XRP-based liquidity mining and cloud-staking offerings promise yields of 6–8%, attracting longer-term holders and reducing circulating supply.
These catalysts suggest that, while Q3 could witness choppy trade, systemic bullish drivers remain intact—provided that critical support zones are honored.
6. Conclusion: Guarded Optimism Ahead
XRP’s current test at $2.65 is arguably the most consequential inflection point of Q3. A hold here would pave the way for technical rebounds toward $2.80–$2.95 and reaccelerate momentum to prior highs. Conversely, a breach would spell a full retrace to the $2.00–$2.10 range, risking a broader market shift to bearish sentiment. For investors seeking new crypto assets or practical yield strategies, now is a make-or-break moment: monitor whale activity, VWAP levels, and RSI divergences closely. Should XRP navigate this zone successfully, the road to $4.00—and perhaps new all-time highs—remains open.
