Main Points:
- Short-term holders’ realized price climbs to $106,000, acting as dynamic support.
- Total realized price averages $51,348, up from $48,000 in January.
- Long-term holders’ realized price rises to $36,500, signaling deepening conviction.
- Bitcoin’s market price tests support at $111,000 before rebounding to $114,000.
- Institutional demand accelerates: $12.8 billion net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs in July 2025.
- Realized market capitalization breaches $1 trillion mark, underscoring liquidity strength.
- On-chain metrics confirm sustained accumulation despite periodic profit-taking.
- Future outlook: approaching halving cycle and potential for renewed bullish momentum.
Figure 1 goes here
Insert Figure 1: Bitcoin Realized Price Trend (Jan–Jul 2025)
1. Realized Price Metrics: Core Indicators
Bitcoin’s realized price measures the average price at which coins last moved on-chain. It segments holders by coin age, distinguishing short-term holders (STH) from long-term holders (LTH) and calculating an aggregate “total” realized price. As of early August 7, 2025:
- Short-Term Realized Price: $106,000
- Total Realized Price: $51,348
- Long-Term Realized Price: $36,500
These values have steadily trended upward since January 2025, reflecting broad-based demand across investor cohorts. Short-term holders’ cost basis often serves as a dynamic support during bull markets, as coins traded within the last 155 days tend to be the first to move. Long-term holders typically exhibit stronger conviction, rarely spending coins held beyond that horizon, and their cost basis rising above $36,000 underscores deepening confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value.
2. Market Price Dynamics: Testing Support Zones
Over the weekend preceding this analysis, Bitcoin’s market price dipped to approximately $111,000—entering what on-chain analysts refer to as a “low-liquidity air gap” between $109,000 and $116,000—before rebounding to around $114,000. This volatility highlights two key dynamics:
- Profit-Taking by Whales: Mid-July saw whales realize $6–8 billion in gains, triggering a short-term correction and fueling rotation into altcoin.
- Depth of Liquidity: The swift recovery above the short-term holder cost basis signals robust buying interest, as few coins change hands in this air gap, making each dip an opportunity for accumulation.
3. Realized Market Cap: Liquidity and On-Chain Support
Unlike market capitalization, realized market cap values coins at their last movement price. As of late July 2025, this metric exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, illustrating the scale of capital deployed into Bitcoin over its history. A high realized cap indicates deep liquidity, providing a strong on-chain support level that can absorb sell pressure and reinforce bullish trends.
4. ETF Inflows & Institutional Demand
Institutional involvement has been a driving force in recent months. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $12.8 billion in net inflows during July 2025, more than doubling the previous high of $5.3 billion in December 2024. Key highlights:
- Major Vehicles: BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led with $5.26 billion in net inflows.
- Broader Context: Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs together accounted for roughly 60% and 54% of total crypto ETF inflows, respectively.
- Corporate Accumulation: Strategic buyers added 166,000 BTC in July, bringing tracked holdings to 3.64 million BTC (valued at $428 billion) by month-end.
These figures, visualized below, underscore a pronounced shift from retail-only markets to significant institutional participation.Figure 2 goes here
Insert Figure 2: Monthly Bitcoin ETF Net Inflows (May–Jul 2025)
5. On-Chain Signals: HODLing vs. Distribution
On-chain analytics paint a picture of confidence tempered by selective profit-taking:
- STH Supply Density: Newly released metrics show that short-term holders currently control about 40% of network supply, down from peaks near 50% earlier in the cycle.
- Profit Realizations: Periodic spikes in STH profitability often coincide with brief rallies, yet realized price support holds, suggesting sellers are swiftly met by deeper-pocket buyers.
- HODL Waves: Long-term holders continue to strengthen positions, with wallet clusters older than 155 days steadily accumulating, reinforcing macro bullishness.
6. Looking Ahead: Halving, Regulation, and Altcoins
With the next Bitcoin halving event approaching, scarcity will intensify, potentially amplifying upward price pressure. Simultaneously:
- Regulatory Clarity: Recent U.S. legislative momentum, such as the passage of the Genius Act, has bolstered investor confidence, paving the way for broader ETF expansion.
- Altcoin Rotation: As evidenced by mid-July profit-taking, capital rotation into high-growth altcoins may spark secondary rallies in tokens like Solana and Cardano.
- Macro Factors: Fed rate decisions and inflation dynamics will continue to influence risk appetite, with Bitcoin’s non-correlated profile offering diversification benefits akin to gold.
Conclusion
The steady rise in realized price metrics—across short-term, total, and long-term cohorts—demonstrates enduring accumulation by a diverse investor base. Despite periodic corrections driven by profit realizations, robust on-chain support at key cost bases ($106,000 for STH, $51,348 overall, and $36,500 for LTH) underpins the market. Coupled with unprecedented institutional ETF inflows ($12.8 billion in July 2025) and a realized cap surpassing $1 trillion, Bitcoin’s foundation looks solid as it heads toward the next halving. For investors seeking new crypto assets, revenue opportunities, and practical blockchain applications, these trends signal both stability and potential entry points in the evolving digital asset landscape.
