Main Points:
- IMF Findings: The IMF’s July 15, 2025 compliance report states El Salvador has not purchased any Bitcoin since February 2025.
- Government Claims vs. Reality: President Bukele and the National Bitcoin Office maintain a “1 BTC per day” policy, despite IMF evidence to the contrary.
- Consolidation, Not Accumulation: Apparent increases in Bitcoin reserves reflect wallet consolidation rather than fresh market buys.
- Transparency Measures: The IMF requires quarterly public disclosure of Bitcoin financials and signed wallet balance statements as of June 30 and December 31.
- Strategic Implications: El Salvador must balance IMF conditions with its crypto‑pioneer image, impacting credibility and financial stability.
IMF Report Findings
On July 15, 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its first review of El Salvador’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) loan agreement, revealing that “the stock of Bitcoins held by the public sector remains unchanged since February 2025”. This finding directly contradicts the narrative of ongoing daily acquisitions. The accompanying letter, signed by Central Bank President Douglas Rodríguez Fuentes and Finance Minister Jerson Posada Molina, confirms that all hot and cold wallet addresses have been provided to the IMF for monitoring.
Government Claims and the Discrepancy
Since November 2022, President Nayib Bukele has touted a “1 BTC per day” purchase policy, displayed prominently on the Bitcoin Office’s website charts. In March 2025, Bukele reiterated his commitment to continue accumulating Bitcoin “without interruption”. Yet these public statements stand at odds with the IMF’s data. Cointelegraph reports that El Salvador agreed in December 2024 to stop using taxpayer funds for Bitcoin purchases as part of its $1.4 billion loan deal, and January 2025 legislation made Bitcoin acceptance voluntary.
Consolidation vs. Accumulation
A critical footnote in the IMF report clarifies:
“Increases in Bitcoin holdings in the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Fund reflect the consolidation of Bitcoin across various government‑owned wallets.”
Rather than new market buys, El Salvador has been merging assets from multiple hot and cold wallets into a single fund for organizational and security reasons. This internal reshuffling gives the illusion of fresh accumulation when, in fact, no new BTC was acquired.
Transparency Measures and Reporting Requirements
To strengthen fiscal transparency and risk management, the IMF has mandated:
- Quarterly Publication of Bitcoin financial statements for trusts and state‑owned enterprises involved in the Bitcoin project.
- Inclusion of All BTC Flows in macroeconomic and fiscal statistics to ensure comprehensive reporting.
- Signed Updates on wallet balances as of June 30 and December 31 each year, certified by senior officials.
These measures aim to provide clear, verifiable data on the government’s crypto activities and mitigate the reputational risks associated with opacity.
Strategic Implications and Market Reaction
El Salvador faces a complex strategic tightrope: upholding IMF loan conditions while preserving its image as a global crypto pioneer. Analysts warn that conflicting narratives—promising daily Bitcoin purchases on one hand and complying with IMF restrictions on the other—could erode the administration’s credibility. Market reaction has been muted; Bitcoin’s price remained largely stable around $41,000 on July 20 and 21, 2025, suggesting investors view this as a technicality rather than a systemic shift.
With roughly $740 million (≈¥110 billion) in market‑valued Bitcoin and $440 million (≈¥65 billion) in unrealized gains, El Salvador sits among the world’s top sovereign Bitcoin holders. Yet questions linger about the true scale and intention of its crypto holdings, highlighting the need for sustained transparency.
Conclusion
The IMF’s July 2025 report has definitively challenged El Salvador’s claims of continuous Bitcoin accumulation. What appeared to be daily market buys was in reality a mere consolidation of existing assets. Moving forward, mandated transparency measures and rigorous reporting will be crucial for restoring credibility and ensuring that El Salvador’s crypto experiment aligns with international financial stability goals. While the government navigates IMF conditions and its own pioneering ambitions, investors and observers alike will be watching for verifiable data rather than narrative flourish.
