Main Points:
- Bitcoin has decisively broken long-term resistance around ¥16.1 million ($120,236) and is consolidating near all‑time highs.
- Ripple (XRP) has surpassed its January peak and may target $4.47 amid renewed bullish sentiment.
- Technical indicators point toward a potential Bitcoin rally to $130,000–$150,000, underpinned by regulatory tailwinds.
- Institutional interest in XRP is accelerating, driven by ISO 20022 adoption and corporate treasury allocations.
- Japanese investors should focus on disciplined risk management, strategic diversification, and buy‑the‑dip opportunities.
1. Breaking the Long-Term Range: Bitcoin’s New Trajectory
Bitcoin’s price action over the past month suggests a significant shift from consolidation to a full-fledged uptrend. After touching a local low of ¥14,395,223 ($107,950) on June 23, the market found support around ¥14.4 million ($96,917), triggering a robust rebound that has now pushed prices well above the previous resistance band at ¥16.1 million ($120,236). This breakout confirms that buyers are firmly in control, with renewed conviction driving BTC toward psychological landmarks. Analysts tracking technical charts have noted that closing prices above ¥16.1 million ($120,236) on multiple timeframes typically precede extended bull rallies, and Bitcoin’s recent candle closes strongly support this thesis.
Moreover, on the broader global stage, Bitcoin has stabilized around $120,236 per coin—the highest sustained level since the January all-time highs—indicating that market participants remain confident in digital gold’s narrative as an inflation hedge and store of value. With on‑chain metrics still showing elevated inflows from whale wallets and decreasing supply on exchanges, the foundation for further upside remains solid.
2. Consecutive Highs and the “Blue Sky” Scenario
Following the breach of long-standing resistance, Bitcoin has printed a series of successive highs: recent intraday peaks at $123,250 and $125,800 hint at the “blue sky” scenario—an environment in which traditional price caps no longer apply. Technical analysts from Cointelegraph highlight that, despite a short consolidation phase near $120,000, momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remain bullish, foreshadowing a potential impulse move toward $130,000 and beyond.
Fundamental drivers reinforce this outlook. A wave of regulatory clarity—particularly in the U.S., where pending legislation under the Trump administration’s expansionary mandate could codify Bitcoin’s status as a commodity—offers institutional investors the legal certainty needed to deploy capital at scale. Should these regulatory tailwinds materialize, market depth could increase significantly, enabling BTC to test targets of $130,000 to $150,000 in the coming quarters.
3. Current Price Snapshot
Below is a visual comparison of Bitcoin and Ripple’s current prices, illustrating the scale of Bitcoin’s market dominance relative to XRP:
Figure 1: Current Price Comparison
4. Ripple’s Turn: Breaking January Peaks
While Bitcoin commands headlines, Ripple (XRP) is quietly entering its own bullish phase. After lingering in a wide consolidation range between $1.90 and $2.90 for nearly 200 days, XRP has decisively broken above its January 18 record close of $3.29, spiking to $3.64 on July 18. This surge—driven in part by speculation around pending U.S. SEC settlements—has prompted veteran chart analyst Peter Brandt to predict a potential 60 percent rally toward $4.47 in the coming months.
On‑chain data further underlines that large holders (“whales”) have been accumulating at these levels, mirroring patterns from late 2024, which preceded XRP’s explosive fourth-quarter rally. A broader embrace of ISO 20022 payment messaging standards by banks, coupled with growing interest in Ripple’s institutional stablecoin, RLUSD, is fostering a narrative shift: from speculative altcoin to strategic treasury asset. Public companies now view XRP not merely as a trading vehicle but as a component of corporate liquidity management.
5. Navigating the New Era: Strategies for Japanese Investors
With both flagship cryptocurrencies on the cusp of major breakouts, Japanese investors must adopt a disciplined approach:
- Define Clear Risk Parameters
- Allocate only what you can afford to lose; consider capping crypto exposure at 5–10 percent of investible assets.
- Use stop‑loss orders to protect gains, setting thresholds based on volatility bands around key support levels (e.g., ¥14 million for BTC, $3.00 for XRP).
- Embrace Diversification
- Beyond BTC and XRP, explore emerging blockchains with strong developer activity (e.g., SUI, zkSync).
- Balance allocations with traditional assets—equities, bonds, or gold—to smooth portfolio swings.
- Buy‑the‑Dip Discipline
- In an uptrend, temporary pullbacks often offer optimal entry points.
- Monitor macro cues (e.g., U.S. CPI prints, regulatory hearings) and technical retracements (20 percent Fibonacci levels) to time purchases.
- Stay Informed with Trusted Sources
- Follow on‑chain analytics platforms and reputable news outlets.
- Leverage Japanese exchanges that integrate blockchain data feeds for localized insights.
- Tax and Regulatory Compliance
- Keep meticulous records of transactions to meet Japan’s 20 percent crypto taxation requirements.
- Consult local tax advisors on gift and inheritance implications for crypto holdings.
By combining strategic asset allocation with prudent risk controls, investors can capture the upside potential of Bitcoin’s renewed bull cycle and Ripple’s resurgence, while minimizing exposure to the market’s inherent volatility.
Conclusion
As of July 18, 2025, the crypto market stands at an inflection point: Bitcoin has shattered multi‑year resistance and consolidated near $120,000, laying the groundwork for a push toward $130,000–$150,000; Ripple has flipped January’s highs and may surge toward $4.47, driven by on‑chain accumulation and growing institutional adoption. For Japanese investors, this represents a dual opportunity: to ride the “blue sky” Bitcoin rally and to capitalize on XRP’s comeback. Success will hinge on disciplined risk management, diversified positioning, and timely market intelligence. By adhering to these principles, investors can position themselves to benefit from Bitcoin’s potential extension of its historic bull run and XRP’s evolving narrative as both a payment settlement token and a corporate treasury asset.
