Main Points:
- Sustained Low Trading Volume: Binance Q2 spot volume at multi‑year lows suggests muted retail participation.
- Renewed Whale Inflows: XRP’s 90‑day moving average of whale flows turned positive in May, echoing patterns from last year’s 420% rally.
- Record Wallet Growth: Addresses holding ≥1 M XRP reached an all‑time high of 2,850, while mid‑tier holders (≥10 k XRP) are up 6.2% year‑to‑date.
- Price Action & Targets: Recent whale‑driven rallies have pushed XRP toward $3, with analysts eyeing $2.90–$3.40 next resistance and potential $3.50–$4.00 by Q4 2025.
- Institutional & Regional Dynamics: SBI Asset Management’s endorsement and Korean retail surges add layers of support and risk diversifications.
Section 1: Trading Volume Hits Historic Lows
Despite closing above $2.00 every month since December 2024, XRP’s spot trading volume on Binance plunged to its lowest level since August 2020 in Q2 2025. This decline—from an average daily turnover above $6 billion in early 2024 to roughly $3 billion—highlights waning retail interest amid sideways price action.
Figure 1 illustrates the weekly volume trend, showing a marked downtrend in liquidity entering the summer months. Lower volume often precedes explosive moves once large players take position, setting the stage for potential sharp breakouts.
Section 2: Whales Accumulate, Flows Turn Positive
Subheading: CryptoQuant Data Signals Major Shift
On‑chain analytics from CryptoQuant reveal that XRP’s 90‑day moving average of net whale flows flipped positive in early May 2025—a stark reversal from the negative outflows recorded January through April. Historically, such a flip marked the beginning of XRP’s 420% rally in late 2024, culminating in a January 2025 peak near $3.40.
Subheading: Sustained Long Positions on Derivatives
Complementing the on‑chain picture, leveraged long positions on Hyperliquid and other derivatives platforms jumped by over $14 million at $2.30, indicating aggressive whale conviction.
Section 3: Wallet Metrics Underpin Investor Confidence
Subheading: Record‑High Mega Holders
Data compiled by leading on‑chain researcher Dom shows that wallets holding in excess of 1 million XRP climbed to 2,850—the highest count ever recorded. Meanwhile, mid‑tier holders (≥10,000 XRP) rose 6.2% YTD, reaching 306,000 addresses.
Subheading: Long‑Term Conviction Amid Price Stagnation
These sustained accumulations have occurred even as price action remained subdued around the $2.20–$2.60 range. The resilience of large‑scale holders suggests deep‑pocketed investors are positioning for a significant price re‑rating in H2 2025.
Section 4: Price Outlook and Technical Targets
Subheading: Near‑Term Resistance Zones
Following an 8% rally into the $2.78 intraday high on July 12, XRP now faces critical resistance in the $2.90–$3.40 band, a zone defined by prior swing highs and volume profile congestion.
Subheading: Long‑Term Breakout Scenarios
Several analysts forecast that if whale flows remain positive and trading volume recovers, XRP could challenge $3.50–$4.00 by Q4 2025—levels last seen during its January peak. Key technical catalysts include a sustained break above $3.00 and retest of the falling‑wedge pattern breakout.
Section 5: Macro and Regional Drivers
Subheading: Institutional Endorsements
Tomoya Asakura, CEO of SBI Global Asset Management, declared XRP a “generational wealth transfer” instrument, underscoring Ripple’s expanding partnerships with entities like SBI Remit and BNY Mellon. Such endorsements elevate institutional sentiment and may trigger further H2 inflows.
Subheading: Retail Dynamics in Key Markets
Conversely, Korean retail on platforms like Upbit has fueled periodic rallies, though recent data suggest whales have sometimes distributed into retail‑led spikes. This interplay underscores the need to monitor regional flows for signs of topping or accumulation.
Conclusion
In sum, XRP’s current landscape—marked by languishing retail volumes, robust whale accumulations, and record wallet growth—bears uncanny resemblance to the setup that preceded its 420% late‑2024 rally. If whales maintain their bullish positioning, and institutional or regional catalysts reignite volume, XRP could well break out above $3.00 in H2 2025, ultimately targeting new highs in the $3.50–$4.00 range. Nonetheless, investors should remain vigilant for volume‑driven exhaustion or macro headwinds, performing due diligence before allocating capital.
