Main Points:
- On-chain demand indicator for Bitcoin slips into negative territory, signaling supply–demand imbalance
- Experienced holders (LTH) and miners exert sell pressure, potentially marking a local market peak
- A major Ethereum whale redeems 95,313 ETH, moving 68,000 ETH ($165 million) from staking to exchanges at a $42.6 million unrealized loss
- Despite institutional inflows into ETH spot ETFs (weekly $429 million, YTD $2.9 billion), whale selling persists
- Emerging on-chain signals of renewed LTH accumulation hint at a turning point ahead
- Implications for altcoin season, yield opportunities, and strategic asset allocation
1. Bitcoin Demand Indicator Turns Negative
Apparent Demand Indicator Decline
CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk reports that Bitcoin’s on-chain “apparent demand” metric, which compares daily newly mined BTC to the change in dormant supplies (coins unmoved for over a year), has fallen below zero as of June 29, 2025. This negative reading indicates that selling pressure from miners and long-term holders (LTH) outstrips fresh buying demand, creating downward price pressure.
Long-Term Holders as Smart Money
LTHs are often deemed “smart money” for their ability to time the market. Their current net outflows suggest experienced investors may be sensing a local peak—potentially foreshadowing a short-term correction risk.
Supply–Demand Imbalance Risks
With daily mining output currently at ~900 BTC ($56 million at $62,500/BTC) and new buyer demand failing to absorb this supply, the market faces heightened vulnerability. A failure to reverse this trend quickly could lead to further price adjustments.
Figure 1 illustrates the apparent demand indicator’s descent through June. (See chart above.)
2. Ethereum Whale Unwinds in Loss
Whale Redeems 95,313 ETH
On June 30, an Ethereum “whale” entity redeemed a total of 95,313 ETH from various staking services. Of this, 68,000 ETH ($165 million at $2,431/ETH) was transferred directly to centralized exchanges, ready for sale, according to data from CryptoQuant.
Unrealized Loss Drivers
This whale had originally staked ETH at an average price of $2,878. The average transfer price of $2,431 now leaves the position with an unrealized loss of roughly $4,260,000. Continued selling by such large holders adds pressure, even amid overall positive institutional inflows.
Charting Whale Activity
Figure 2 shows net ETH transfers to exchanges in June, culminating in the significant June 30 outflow.
3. Institutional Inflows & ETF Trends
Ethereum ETF Inflows
Despite whale selling, institutional demand remains robust. CoinDesk reports $429 million in new weekly inflows into ETH-focused ETFs, bringing year-to-date totals to nearly $2.9 billion. CoinShares data similarly notes strong Q2 momentum with $1.8 billion net inflows to global ETH ETFs, reaching $2.2 billion for the year.
Bitcoin ETF Resilience
Bitcoin investment products saw $1.3 billion in inflows last week, illustrating that institutional buying persists even as on-chain demand indicators waver.
Altcoin Season Prospects
With continued inflows across altcoins—XRP ($11.8 million weekly), SUI ($3.5 million)—investor appetite for diversification remains. However, Bitcoin-centric selling may delay a full-fledged alt season. Strategic allocations in high-utility tokens (e.g., layer 2 networks) could offer yield and application-driven growth.
4. On-Chain Signals of Accumulation
LTH Accumulation Spikes
Another CryptoQuant analyst, crypto_sunmoon, highlights that LTH wallets showed notable accumulation during June’s correction, potentially signaling a precursory build-up before a major market move.
Interpretation for Traders
Offsetting short-term selling by whales, renewed LTH buy pressure may foreshadow a stabilization or reversal. Traders seeking income opportunities might watch these on-chain buy signals in tandem with yield-bearing DeFi strategies.
Conclusion: Tactical Considerations for Investors
The convergence of negative on-chain demand for Bitcoin and heavy Ethereum whale selling in loss suggests short-term vulnerabilities. Yet, sustained institutional flows into ETH ETFs and signs of smart-money accumulation hint at a base-building phase. For investors scouting new assets and yield avenues:
- Monitor On-Chain Metrics: Track apparent demand and LTH accumulation for early signals of market inflection.
- Balance Exposure: Consider diversified positions across BTC, ETH, and select altcoins with strong fundamentals.
- Leverage DeFi Yields: Use periods of consolidation to deploy capital into staking and lending protocols, capturing yield while accumulating assets at favorable prices.
- Stay Agile: Rapid whale movements can shake market sentiment—stay prepared with stop-loss and rebalancing strategies.
By integrating these insights, readers can position themselves to both weather potential near-term corrections and capitalize on emerging opportunities across the evolving crypto landscape.
