Main Points:
- The growth of Bitcoin’s “ancient supply” now outpaces new daily issuance, reducing circulating liquidity.
- Over 17 % of all BTC is held untouched for more than a decade, signaling strong long-term conviction by holders.
- Institutional inflows—via ETFs, corporate treasuries, and sovereign allocations—are skyrocketing and projected to exceed $120 billion in 2025 and $300 billion in 2026.
- A $1 million Bitcoin implies a $21 trillion market cap, ten times today’s valuation, underpinned by continued supply constraints and demand expansion.
- Geopolitical events and market volatility pose intermittent risks, but long-term projections remain bullish given historical halving cycles and on-chain trends.
- Recent data show U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logging multi-day inflow streaks (e.g., $412 million on June 16, 2025) despite macro uncertainties.
Ancient Supply Growth Outpaces Mining
Since the April 2024 halving, the daily increase in Bitcoin’s so-called “ancient supply”—coins untouched for at least ten years—has exceeded new daily issuance of 450 BTC. According to Fidelity Digital Assets, around 550 BTC per day now join this ancient cohort, compared to 450 BTC newly mined, marking a pivotal shift in supply dynamics.
This trend has driven the ancient supply to over 17 % of all bitcoin—more than 3.4 million BTC sidelined from circulation. Fidelity’s report projects this ratio could reach 20 % by 2028 and 25 % by 2034, emphasizing the growing scarcity of liquid bitcoin.
Long-term holders’ conviction is evident: days when the ancient supply shrinks account for less than 3 % of all trading days, underscoring the stickiness of this cohort even amid price swings. Historical halvings in 2013, 2017, and 2021 highlight how supply slowdowns combine with demand upticks to fuel parabolic rallies, setting a precedent for potential future breakouts under similar conditions.
Institutional Demand Surging
Institutional investors have become the dominant source of Bitcoin demand in 2025. Bitwise’s “Chart of the Week” indicates that ETFs and corporate treasuries now outpace retail inflows, reflecting a classic distribution-to-accumulation cycle among professional players.
Forecasts by Bitwise show institutional inflows of $120 billion by the end of 2025 and an additional $300 billion in 2026, potentially absorbing over 4.2 million BTC—roughly 20 % of total supply—through corporate buy-ins, sovereign allocations, and ETF subscriptions.
Key demand drivers include:
- Government reallocations: A hypothetical 5 % reallocation of gold reserves into bitcoin represents $161.7 billion in potential demand.
- State-level adoption: If U.S. states allocate 30 % of their reserves, this could add $196 billion.
- Asset managers’ modest allocations: Even a 0.5 % shift by large platforms equates to $300 billion in flows.
- Corporate treasuries: Public companies doubling BTC holdings could channel an extra $117.8 billion into the market.
Such multi-pronged institutional engagement amplifies the scarcity created by ancient supply trends, laying the groundwork for sustained price appreciation.
Supply–Demand Dynamics and Price Projections
Achieving a $1 million Bitcoin requires a market capitalization of approximately $21 trillion, a tenfold increase from the current $2.1 trillion valuation based on 19.88 million BTC in circulation. Historical halvings offer a blueprint: each event in 2013, 2017, and 2021 led to extended bull phases, driven by decelerating issuance and rising interest.
With 17 % of supply effectively illiquid and institutional inflows accelerating, the proportion of circulating BTC could shrink further. Under a bullish scenario, 30 % of supply may be locked away by 2026, potentially tightening the float to under 14 million BTC. If demand continues at projected rates, price targets near $1 million become mathematically feasible.
On-chain signals—such as declining exchange reserves and rising long-term holder positions—corroborate this narrative. Data from Cointelegraph show that the ancient supply cohort now eclipses daily mined BTC, signaling a supply squeeze that, combined with record ETF demand, could catalyze the next major leg up.
Potential Risks and Volatility
Despite bullish fundamentals, risks remain. Following the 2024 U.S. presidential election, ancient supply decreased on 10 % of days—four times the historical average—indicating that even steadfast holders may liquidate under heightened uncertainty.
Repositioning by institutional investors adds another layer of volatility. Reuters reports that in Q1 2025, hedge funds trimmed ETF holdings amid a 12 % price correction, with Millennium Management reducing its iShares position by 41 % and Brevan Howard cutting back as well. Conversely, advisory firms like Brown University and Mubadala increased stakes, suggesting a bifurcated landscape of tactical exits and strategic entries.
Moreover, regulatory developments—such as potential U.S. crackdowns on crypto custodians or proposal shifts by the SEC—could trigger episodic sell-offs. Yet, even under conservative forecasts, analysts expect at least $150 billion of inflows in bearish scenarios, ensuring a robust demand floor.
Recent Developments: ETF Inflows and Market Signals
June 2025 has seen a sustained ETF inflow streak, highlighting institutional appetite amid macro headwinds. On June 16, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $412.2 million in net inflows, extending a six-day run and pushing cumulative ETF assets to $46 billion. This surge persisted despite Middle East tensions, underscoring Bitcoin’s growing role as a hedge asset.
Further, on June 17, ETFs logged $217.4 million in inflows, marking the seventh straight day of positive flows. Major players like BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC led the charge, with combined net subscriptions driving momentum even as macro indicators fluctuated.
These inflows coincide with dwindling on-chain liquidity: centralized exchange reserves have fallen to multi-year lows, while long-term addresses accumulate. Together, these patterns suggest a market increasingly driven by structural scarcity and professional demand, rather than short-term speculation.
Conclusion
The confluence of Bitcoin’s expanding ancient supply and surging institutional demand is reshaping its market fundamentals. With daily ancient supply growth outstripping new issuance, and projected inflows of $120 billion in 2025 followed by $300 billion in 2026, the stage is set for a potential $1 million price target—requiring a $21 trillion market cap—within the next market cycle.
Although geopolitical events, regulatory shifts, and short-term volatility can induce sell-offs, the overarching supply-demand trajectory remains strongly bullish. Historical halving precedents and current on-chain data both validate the thesis: as liquid BTC diminishes and professional capital intensifies, Bitcoin’s path to $1 million emerges not as fantasy, but as a mathematically and behaviorally grounded inevitability.
