Main Points：
- Bitcoin has traded within a tight range of ¥14.4 million to ¥16.1 million over the past month, failing to decisively break out or break down.
- Ethereum’s impressive 47% May rally has stalled in the $2,400–$2,700 zone, suggesting a potential peak-out.
- Altcoins broadly lack momentum, with mixed inflows into products and muted performance outside the top two assets.
- Institutional flows remain significant: Bitcoin ETFs near record assets, Ether staking hitting new highs.
- Key technical levels to monitor: $109,000–$112,000 for Bitcoin; $2,700 and $3,000 for Ethereum.
- On-chain metrics like realized price and exchange balances hint at both optimism and caution.
- Investors should brace for either a breakout above resistance or a breakdown below support, adjusting positions accordingly.
Market Overview
In May 2025, the global cryptocurrency market delivered a surprising surge despite macroeconomic headwinds, with the total market cap rising over 10% as investors grew confident in a looming Federal Reserve rate cut. Binance Research reports that the overall market capitalisation jumped 10.3%, buoyed by Bitcoin nearing a record $112,000, alongside renewed interest in NFTs and spot ETFs. Corporate treasuries also deepened crypto allocations, underlining broad-based adoption.
This rally was mirrored in Japan’s onshore markets, where Bitcoin/JPY mirrored USD strength. Yet, despite positive headlines, Bitcoin struggled to escape its range. Ethereum outperformed in May—rising nearly 47%—but has since stalled, raising concerns about diverging momentum among major coins. Altcoins beyond the top two have been notably subdued, reflecting a risk-off tilt once Ethereum’s advance slowed.
Bitcoin Price Action: JPY and USD Perspectives
On the 1-hour BTC/JPY chart from mid-May to early June, Bitcoin oscillated between the ¥16,100,000 resistance and ¥14,400,000 support lines, illustrating investor indecision. Prices peaked at ¥16,129,872 before collapsing back to local lows near ¥14,445,066 on May 23, only to rebound and retest resistance on June 11 at ¥15,666,063. The inability to clear ¥16.1 million has cemented rangebound trading over the past month.
In USD markets, Bitcoin traded near $109,000–$110,400 as of mid-June, backed by healthy ETF flows surpassing $132 billion in assets and an encouraging flag breakout on daily charts. Investors are eyeing the previous all-time high of $112,000 as a pivotal barrier; a successful push above could open doors toward $125,000–$137,000, per technical models. Conversely, support levels at $107,000 and the psychological $100,000 mark remain critical cushions against sudden sell-offs.
Ethereum’s Performance and Peak-Out Signs
Ethereum’s May performance was extraordinary, climbing nearly 47% from roughly $1,900 to above $2,800. However, since late May, ETH has traded sideways between $2,400 and $2,700, failing to sustain further upside. IOMAP data highlights strong support between $2,349 and $2,426, but sellers have defended the $2,700 threshold decisively. This consolidation echoes past patterns: a bull flag preceded ETH’s 2024 rally past $4,000, yet a failure to break out could trigger a retracement toward lower support zones.
On-chain staking metrics bolster confidence; total ETH staked reached 34.8 million (28.15% of supply), driven by platforms like Lido, Binance, and Coinbase. Yet, net inflows to Ether investment products recently plateaued, suggesting yield-seeking investors may be losing zeal at current prices. CoinEdition forecasts ETH could break $2,920 next if bulls regain control, but confirmation above $2,700 is essential.
Altcoin Market Sentiment
Beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, altcoins have shown limited growth. Weekly crypto product flows saw $224 million in net inflows last week, with Ether leading at $296.4 million, while Bitcoin recorded its second straight week of outflows. Altcoin products collectively saw minor activity, underscoring investors’ risk aversion once Ethereum’s momentum wavered.
Dogecoin emerged as an exception, up 12.9% in May following 21Shares’ filing for a spot DOGE ETF and over 500% surge in active addresses—evidence of renewed retail engagement. However, few altcoins outside this niche rally have sustained appreciable gains, leaving the broader altcoin market vulnerable to further slides if Bitcoin and Ethereum both falter.
On-Chain Metrics and Institutional Flows
Realized price analysis reveals Bitcoin’s 2025 cost basis at $93,266, meaning average investors currently sit on 12% profits with BTC trading near $105,000. Historically, dips below the realized price have marked market bottoms (e.g., post-ETF plunge in early 2024). This metric suggests the current pullback above realized cost retains bullish underpinnings, but a drop below $93,000 would warrant extreme caution.
Exchange reserve balances have declined as institutional holders hoard off-exchange, signaling long-term bullish sentiment. Concurrently, spot Bitcoin ETFs have amassed assets rising from $91 billion in April to $132 billion in mid-June, reinforcing price support. Ether staking grows, yet the concentration among a few Lido validators raises decentralization concerns. Monitoring these flows helps gauge whether institutions continue accumulating or shift to profit-taking.
Key Technical Levels and Analysis
Bitcoin
- Resistance: ¥16,100,000 (¥16.1 M) and $112,000 – a decisive break would likely propel BTC toward $125,000–$137,000.
- Support: ¥14,400,000 (¥14.4 M), $107,000, and psychological $100,000 – a breach risks deeper retracements.
Daily charts show a bullish golden cross (50-day MA crossing above 200-day MA), suggesting underlying momentum. The near-term flag pattern breakout hints at potential upside, but confirmation above resistance is required to avoid a false signal.
Ethereum
- Resistance: $2,700 and $3,000 – surpassing $2,920 could accelerate gains toward $3,300+.
- Support: $2,400 and on-chain IOMAP support zone between $2,349–$2,426.
Technical models show a stalled bull flag; maintaining support and renewing buying pressure is crucial to prevent a deeper pullback to $2,300 or lower.
Future Outlook and Strategy
Investors now face a binary scenario: a breakout above key resistance levels signals the next leg of the bull market, while failure likely leads to consolidation or deeper corrections. Strategies should align with risk tolerance:
- Bullish Play: Use breakouts above $112,000 (BTC) and $2,920 (ETH) as entry triggers, scaling in with stop-losses just below support.
- Defensive Posture: Hedge positions or rotate to stablecoins/short-term yields if prices drop below ¥14.4 M or $2,400 levels, respectively.
- Opportunistic Approach: Monitor altcoins with strong fundamentals and low correlation to top assets; leverage periods of Bitcoin/ETH weakness to accumulate promising projects at discounts.
Macro factors—such as Fed policy shifts, regulatory developments, and geopolitical risks—remain tailwinds or headwinds. Continued institutional engagement via ETFs and staking underpins long-term growth, but short-term traders should remain nimble amid rangebound volatility.
Conclusion
Over the past month, Bitcoin’s inability to escape its ¥14.4 million–¥16.1 million range and Ethereum’s stall in the $2,400–$2,700 zone have elevated the stakes for crypto investors. Institutional flows and on-chain metrics provide a bullish foundation, yet technical resistance looms large. The coming days will be telling: a decisive breakout above $112,000 or $2,920 would confirm renewed bull momentum, whereas a breakdown below key supports risks broader market retrenchment. For those hunting the next crypto opportunity, vigilant monitoring of price levels, market sentiment, and macro catalysts will be essential to navigate this critical juncture.
