Main Points:
- In May 2025, XRP exhibited market indecision as evidenced by a monthly “doji” candlestick, suggesting a potential end to the preceding bullish run.
- Despite technical signals of exhaustion, Deribit’s options market displays robust bullish sentiment, with significant open interest concentrated in high-strike XRP call options.
- XRP continues to gain traction as a cross-border settlement asset, supported by Ripple’s recent emphasis on addressing SWIFT inefficiencies in global B2B payments.
- Regulatory developments in the United States—especially around spot XRP ETF filings—are shaping market expectations; the SEC has extended its review of Franklin Templeton’s spot XRP ETF to June 17, 2025.
- Institutional instruments such as CME’s launch of cash-settled XRP futures on May 19, 2025, highlight growing interest from traditional finance in altcoin exposure.
- While on-chain data and macroeconomic trends suggest cautious near-term price movements, longer-term catalysts—spot ETF approvals, expanding use cases, and institutional adoption—provide a bullish framework for XRP in H2 2025.
Introduction
Ripple’s native token, XRP, has garnered attention in 2025 for its dual role: a speculative asset traded on exchanges and a settlement token underpinning Ripple’s cross-border payments solutions. By June 2, 2025, analysts observed that while XRP’s price action in May signaled market ambivalence, institutional and derivative markets spoke of sustained bullish conviction. For crypto investors seeking novel yield opportunities and practical blockchain use cases, understanding the interplay between technical indicators, derivatives positioning, and regulatory timelines is critical. This article dissects XRP’s May performance, examines derivative market sentiment, highlights recent institutional developments, and outlines the evolving regulatory landscape for spot XRP ETFs.
May Market Performance and Technical Indicators
In May 2025, XRP’s price action reflected a market caught between bullish optimism and hesitant selling pressure. According to TradingView data, XRP closed the month forming a “doji” candlestick with a pronounced upper wick—an archetypal sign of indecision following an uptrend. In early April, XRP had rebounded from a low of approximately $1.60 (¥230), and traders initially expected the uptrend to continue. However, as bulls pushed the price as high as $2.65 (¥382), bears intervened, driving XRP back near its May opening levels. This “long upper shadow” implies that attempts to sustain higher prices were thwarted by sell-side resistance, and technical analysts often interpret such structures as early warnings of bull fatigue and potential reversal.
Retail and institutional traders noted this pattern didn’t immediately translate into a sharp price decline. Instead, XRP traded in a range between $2.10 and $2.60 throughout late May 2025. On May 29, leading analytic platforms observed that near-term derivatives—such as put options expiring at $2.40 on May 30—were purchased by some market participants as insurance against a downturn, reinforcing the notion that traders were bracing for heightened volatility around month-end expirations .
Furthermore, on-chain metrics from CoinGecko and other on-chain data aggregators indicated that XRP’s spot volume remained robust, averaging $1.2 billion daily across major exchanges in the final week of May. Despite the doji warning, open interest in XRP perpetual futures and futures contracts on CME and BitMEX remained elevated, signaling that both speculative and hedging activities sustained liquidity. The convergence of technical indecision and sustained trading volumes underscores that, while short-term reversal signals surfaced, market participants were far from capitulating.
Bullish Sentiment in the Options Market
Contrary to the technical caution flagged by the doji structure, Market participants on Deribit—the world’s largest crypto options exchange—remained largely bullish on XRP’s prospects. As of late May, total open interest in XRP options on Deribit exceeded $65 million in notional monthly volume, with over 95% of this activity concentrated on Deribit itself. Luuk Strijers, CEO of Deribit, emphasized that the lion’s share of open interest is centered on call options with strike prices between $2.60 (¥374) and $3.10 (¥446), indicating that traders anticipate a breakout above $3.00 in the medium term.
Specifically, the $4.00 (¥576) strike call option led with an estimated $5.39 million in notional open interest, closely followed by $3.00 and $3.10 strikes, each with roughly $5 million in open notional. This distribution of open interest suggests that market participants are positioning for a significant upside regardless of short-term technical wobbles. Options derivatives provide asymmetric exposure—where call option buyers can capture substantial upside if XRP rallies above their strike, while risking only the premium paid, making them attractive for bullish bets in uncertain environments.
Data from Kaiko Research further shows that implied volatility (IV) for XRP options expiring on May 30 was skewed, with IV at near-the-money strikes remaining relatively balanced but gradually increasing for out-of-the-money calls. By contrast, IV for out-of-the-money puts (strikes around $1.50) also rose, reflecting some demand for downside protection, possibly in anticipation of regulatory announcements or market catalysts in early June.
This dual dynamic—elevated call open interest against a backdrop of selective put buying—reveals that while traders acknowledge near-term risks, they maintain a bullish orientation for mid- to long-term price appreciation. Deribit’s CEO noted that bullish skew in high-strike calls remains one of the most telling indicators of sustained market optimism, especially when spot prices hover around $2.16 (¥311).
Cross-Border Payments and Ripple’s Expanding Use Cases
Beyond pure speculation, XRP’s role as a settlement asset in Ripple’s cross-border payments network continues to underpin long-term bullish narratives. In mid-May 2025, Ripple publicly highlighted how using XRP can reduce settlement times and costs compared to legacy SWIFT-based systems. According to Ripple’s internal whitepaper, B2B cross-border payments—valued at $31.6 trillion in 2024—are projected to increase by 58% to $50 trillion by 2031. By deploying XRP Liquidity Hub (formerly known as On-Demand Liquidity), Ripple claims that financial institutions can experience settlement finality within seconds and reduce foreign exchange fees by up to 60% compared to pre-funded nostro/vostro models.
Several new corridors went live in late May 2025, including a partnership announcement between Ripple and a leading Southeast Asian remittance provider. This initiative aims to facilitate instant remittances between the Philippines and Indonesia using XRP as the bridge currency. Early pilot results indicated that transaction costs dropped from an average of 3–4% under traditional remittance rails to less than 1% using XRP, while settlement times shrank from days to under ten seconds. Though transaction volume remains modest—roughly $12 million in XRP flows in May—the corridor’s success has spurred interest from additional regional payment service providers (PSPs).
Moreover, Ripple’s emphasis on compliance and regulatory clarity lent further legitimacy to XRP as a settlement asset. In April 2025, Ripple settled its lawsuit with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) concerning unregistered securities sales in late 2020. Although the terms of the settlement were confidential, Ripple agreed to enhance transparency around XRP ledger operations and provide additional disclosure to institutional clients regarding risk controls. Market observers interpreted this as a positive step toward broader institutional adoption, reinforcing the idea that XRP could serve not only as a speculative instrument but also as real-world plumbing for global liquidity.
Spot ETF Prospects and Regulatory Developments
The possibility of a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S. has emerged as a pivotal catalyst for both retail and institutional investors. As of June 2, 2025, there were nine active spot XRP ETF filings with the SEC. Major asset managers—including Franklin Templeton, Fidelity, and Bitwise—had submitted proposals through various U.S. exchanges such as Cboe BZX, NYSE Arca, and Nasdaq. JPMorgan analysts projected that, if approved, a spot XRP ETF could attract up to $8 billion in flows within the first year, on par with earlier Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF launches.
However, the SEC’s timeline has been a consistent source of speculation. On April 30, 2025, the SEC extended its review of Franklin Templeton’s spot XRP ETF filing to June 17, 2025—mirroring the agency’s procedural extensions for Ethereum and Solana ETF proposals. Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart characterized the delay as “standard procedure,” noting that prior cryptocurrency ETF applications often underwent similar 45-day extensions without altering the ultimate likelihood of approval.
Market responses to these extensions were muted. While XRP’s price dipped below $2.30 (¥331) on the day of the extension, analysts like Dark Defender maintained bullish price targets of $5.85 post-approval, arguing that spot ETF approval would unlock major institutional demand—mirroring the momentum seen after Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF launches in early 2025.
In addition, the upcoming SEC Crypto Task Force roundtable scheduled for June 9, 2025, added another layer of market attention. The event aimed to bring together regulators, exchange representatives, and asset managers to discuss regulatory guardrails for digital assets. Among the invitees was Rebecca Rettig of Jito Labs, symbolizing DeFi’s growing role in the dialogue. Though the roundtable’s agenda did not explicitly mention XRP, some attendees—such as the SEC’s Hester Peirce—were known advocates for clearer guidelines around tokenized asset listings, raising hopes that ETF deliberations might accelerate in the second half of 2025.
Emerging Institutional Instruments: Futures and OTC Mechanisms
Beyond spot ETF anticipation, institutional access to XRP via derivative products has gained traction. On April 24, 2025, the CME Group announced the launch of cash-settled XRP futures contracts, scheduled to go live on May 19, 2025, pending final regulatory approval. The new futures were designed to allow both retail and institutional participants to hedge or gain exposure to XRP without directly holding the token. According to Reuters, these contracts would be settled in U.S. dollars and listed with monthly expirations, matching CME’s existing structure for Bitcoin and Ether futures.
Market data from CoinGecko as of May 21, 2025, indicated that XRP was trading at roughly $0.53 (¥76) with a $29 billion market capitalization at the time of the CME announcement. The rationale was that XRP’s counterparty risk and regulatory clarity following the SEC settlement made it an appealing next step in CME’s altcoin futures expansion. Ripple’s CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, publicly praised the launch, calling it a “significant milestone for XRP’s institutional adoption,” and noted that it could open on-ramps for hedge funds, asset managers, and corporate treasuries exploring altcoin diversification. Early trading volumes on the first day of CME XRP futures exceeded 2,000 contracts, equivalent to roughly $2.5 million notional, demonstrating robust initial demand.
Simultaneously, over-the-counter (OTC) trading desks specializing in digital assets reported a surge in inbound inquiries for block-size XRP trades. Institutional clients—ranging from family offices to proprietary trading firms—sought customized liquidity solutions, often requesting fixed-volume tranches of 5–10 million XRP (approximately $11–$22 million at prevailing prices) with one- or two-day settlement windows. This uptick in OTC activity paralleled a broader institutional push into altcoins, buoyed by CME’s futures offering and the looming prospect of spot ETFs. Data from Kaiko noted that CME’s introduction of XRP futures coincided with a 15% increase in mid-size OTC desk volumes by late May compared to April 2025 levels.
Price Outlook and On-Chain Sentiments
Despite the array of institutional catalysts, several analysts cautioned that XRP’s near-term price trajectory could remain choppy. As of June 1, 2025, XRP hovered around $2.28, having failed to mount a decisive breakout above $2.35 resistance in late May. Technical commentary from CryptoTimes suggested that a sustained close above $2.35 (¥338) might pave the way for a rally toward $2.60 (¥374) and eventually $3.00 (¥432). Conversely, a failure to reclaim $2.30 support could see XRP testing the $2.00 psychological level (¥288) before month-end.
On-chain sentiment, measured by metrics such as exchange net flows and large whale transactions, painted a nuanced picture. Data from Santiment indicated that over 15 million XRP (worth approximately $33 million) moved from exchanges to private wallets in the final week of May—a net outflow suggesting accumulation by long-term holders. However, short-term whale movements—clusters of 1–3 million XRP transfers to Binance and OKX—suggested that some market participants were capitalizing on near-term volatility, selling into strength above $2.40. These conflicting signals underscored that, while long-term confidence remained intact, short-term traders might continue to weather sideways trading or mild pullbacks ahead of major catalysts like the SEC’s ETF decision.
Broader Market Sentiment and Macro Factors
XRP’s performance cannot be decoupled from broader macroeconomic and crypto market dynamics. In May 2025, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continued to attract significant capital inflows, with net purchases totaling $3.2 billion combined since their February launches. This influx buoyed general altcoin sentiment, as investors sought higher-yielding or undervalued tokens compared to BTC and ETH. Conservative estimates place Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility at 48%, while Ethereum’s stood at 55%—both trending downward from Q1 highs. In contrast, XRP’s realized volatility hovered around 62%, reflecting its smaller market capitalization (approximately $29 billion) and comparatively higher price swings.
The macro backdrop—characterized by a Federal Reserve nearing the end of its rate-hike cycle and diminishing inflationary pressures—also played a role. With U.S. headline inflation cooling to 3.4% year-over-year by May 2025, risk-on asset classes, including cryptocurrencies, benefited from looser monetary conditions. Real yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries hovered near 0.20%, prompting investors to search for yield in alternative markets. XRP, given its established network, relatively low fees, and institutional interest, became a prime candidate for diversifying crypto allocations. Yet, regulatory uncertainty around spot ETFs and possible U.S. macroeconomic headwinds—such as a mild slowdown in consumer spending—meant investors remained vigilant.
Implications for Crypto Investors and Practitioners
For investors scouting new crypto assets or forging yield strategies, XRP presents a hybrid case: it is simultaneously a speculative instrument and an operational token facilitating real-world transactions. The May 2025 doji pattern suggests that traders must respect short-term technical resistance and potentially use protective put options or dynamic hedging strategies—especially around key expiration dates in late May and June.
At the same time, practitioners and blockchain-based enterprises can leverage XRP’s on-demand liquidity (ODL) infrastructure to reduce settlement times and fx costs in cross-border remittances. Case studies from Ripple’s Southeast Asia corridor pilots illustrate that lower transaction fees (sub-1%) and near-instant finality can materially improve operational efficiency for payments services. For fintech engineers building cross-border rails, integrating Ripple’s APIs and collaborating with licensed local payment providers can yield measurable cost savings while reducing working capital requirements associated with pre-funded nostro accounts.
From a risk management standpoint, financial institutions eager to incorporate XRP into treasury portfolios should monitor regulatory developments closely. While the SEC’s extension of the Franklin Templeton ETF to June 17, 2025, is procedural, any substantive feedback—positive or negative—will influence institutional appetite. Firms should coordinate with legal counsel to interpret any SEC pronouncements, maintain compliance with KYC/AML protocols for token custody, and consider setting aside regulatory capital for crypto exposure. Additionally, the advent of CME’s XRP futures provides an avenue to hedge price risk without direct token ownership, thereby offering a more widely regulated on-ramp for traditional asset managers.
Conclusion
XRP’s trajectory in mid-2025 encapsulates the tensions between technical market signals and broader bullish catalysts. On one hand, the doji candlestick in May signaled market indecision, and short-term price dynamics suggest caution near $2.30–$2.60. On the other hand, robust open interest in high-strike call options on Deribit, rising institutional flows via CME futures, and the looming possibility of spot ETF approvals collectively construct a bullish framework for the second half of 2025. Moreover, XRP’s core value proposition as a settlement token in cross-border payments continues to gain traction through strategic partnerships and real-world use cases—underscoring that beyond trading desks, XRP holds promise for practitioners seeking pragmatic blockchain-driven solutions.
As investors and blockchain professionals assess XRP, they must balance near-term hedging and technical analysis with anticipation of catalysts like the SEC’s ETF decision (scheduled June 17, 2025) and ongoing institutional adoption. Should regulatory clarity arrive and broader financial infrastructure embrace XRP as a settlement asset, the token’s mid- to long-term outlook could brighten substantially—potentially validating the $3.00–$5.00 price targets floated by various analysts. Until then, market participants should remain vigilant, employing risk management frameworks and staying attuned to both derivative signals and evolving regulatory landscapes.
