Main Points:
- Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode’s latest metrics mirror those seen at prior cycle peaks, indicating elevated investor profitability and accumulation.
- On-chain activity, including Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) and realized capitalization, has surged to historic highs.
- Derivatives markets show pronounced leverage, with futures open interest up over 50% since April and record options open interest.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract billions in daily inflows, underscoring robust institutional demand.
- Forecasts from index managers like Bitwise project over $120 billion in cumulative Bitcoin inflows by year-end 2025.
Market Profitability and Accumulation
Data from Glassnode’s May 28 report highlights that investor profitability metrics have climbed to levels typically associated with euphoric market tops. The network’s Accumulation Trend Score—an indicator of whether investors are net buyers or sellers—has approached its maximum historical value, signifying aggressive accumulation across holder cohorts. Concurrently, the Relative Unrealized Profit/Loss (RUPL) metric, which compares the aggregate unrealized profits to unrealized losses among holders, stands at a historically elevated ratio that previous cycles saw just before major tops.
Realized capitalization—the summation of the value of each coin at the price when it last moved on-chain—has also broken through $900 billion for the first time, a milestone underscoring the heightened cost basis of coins in circulation. Historically, spikes in realized cap coincide with late-cycle distribution phases, as early entrants begin to monetize gains. Yet Glassnode notes that, despite these elevated metrics, the current pulse of demand may still absorb profit-taking pressure, setting the stage for further price discovery.
On-Chain Activity and Exchange Flows
On-chain volume has intensified markedly. The proportion of Bitcoin transaction volume routed through centralized exchanges has risen to roughly 33%, reminiscent of patterns seen during the run-up to the 2017 and 2021 highs. This uptick reflects both heightened trading activity and strategic coin movements by large holders seeking to deploy capital into liquid markets.
Further, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)—which measures the profit ratio of outputs spent on-chain—registers a 16% average profit, placing it among the highest readings on record. High SOPR levels historically precede brief market retracements, as short-term holders capitalize on gains; however, sustained elevated SOPR can also indicate ongoing confidence among investors to re-enter at higher price points.
Moreover, exchange reserves have declined to multi-year lows, tightening available supply and hinting at prolonged holding behavior by long-term investors. With institutional and retail participants opting to withdraw coins from exchanges into cold storage or OTC contracts, the circulating float available for trading has contracted, potentially amplifying price moves on incremental demand.
Derivatives Markets and Leverage
The derivatives landscape underscores rising risk appetite. Bitcoin futures open interest has swelled by 51% since April, reaching $55.6 billion in notional value. This surge in futures positions suggests that institutional desks and professional traders are allocating more capital to directional and hedged exposures in Bitcoin.
Such elevated leverage raises the specter of larger liquidations during sharp price moves, but it also signifies confidence among sophisticated participants to engage the market at scale. Historically, sustained growth in derivatives open interest during bull phases often precedes accelerated upside moves, as funding rates trend positively and squeeze short-biased players.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows and Institutional Demand
Since their inception, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have redefined institutional access to the market. In May 2025 alone, these vehicles have accumulated over $3.6 billion in net inflows, eclipsing the $2.97 billion recorded in April and fully reversing the $4.6 billion of outflows seen in February–March.
Weekly net inflows peaked above $1 billion during the period ending May 23, driven by allocations into the flagship funds from BlackRock, Fidelity, and other large asset managers. On May 27, spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively drew $385 million in a single day, led by BlackRock’s IBIT with $409 million, bringing total inflows for that fund to $48.39 billion since launch.
Coupled with supportive macro factors—such as U.S. Senate progress on stablecoin regulatory frameworks and public endorsements from political figures—ETF flows have become a primary driver of short-term price momentum. The daily cadence of inflows, often exceeding $300 million, continues to absorb new supply and bolster bid depth across major exchanges.
Future Outlook and Price Projections
With on-chain indicators at cyclical peak levels, derivatives leverage surging, and ETF inflows near record rates, the prevailing question is whether Bitcoin can sustain its ascent toward $120,000. Glassnode’s analysis cautions that, while market overheating risks a pullback, the combination of strong demand and constrained supply could facilitate further all-time highs if investor conviction remains intact.
Index fund manager Bitwise projects that cumulative Bitcoin inflows could reach $120 billion by the end of 2025, with an additional $300 billion anticipated in 2026. Such massive capital imports—across treasuries of public companies, sovereign wealth funds, and ETFs—would dwarf past cycles and underscore Bitcoin’s growing role as a macro asset.
Technical analysis also favors an extended bull run. After breaking resistance near $111,000, the next major supply zone resides around $120,000, which corresponds to the upper boundary of historical sentiment extremes and cyclic Fibonacci extensions. Should price action overcome short-term profit-taking, the path to $120,000 may be paved by renewed momentum and self-fulfilling leverage squeezes.
Conclusion
The convergence of elevated profitability, robust on-chain activity, mounting derivatives participation, and relentless institutional inflows has rekindled a bull market reminiscent of Bitcoin’s prior peaks. While historical patterns warn that late-cycle exuberance can precipitate sharp corrections, the depth of current demand—including spot ETF acquisitions and multinational treasury allocations—argues for sustained upside potential. If markets digest near-term profit-taking without unraveling structural momentum, the psychological and technical $120,000 threshold stands as the next crucible for Bitcoin’s bull cycle.
