Main Points:
- Robust V-Shaped Recovery: Bitcoin rebounded from a June low near $110,000, with $117,000 proving a strong support level.
- Breakthrough to New Highs: A surge past $127,000 suggests renewed bullish momentum, clearing key resistance around $126,000.
- Summer Slump Signals: Historical seasonality (average ~‒3% decline in August) and altcoin corrections raise caution for a potential multi-month pullback.
- “August Curse” & Expert Warnings: High-profile voices like Robert Kiyosaki anticipate dips below $90,000, while AI models warn of a 30–40% drop by year-end.
- Investment Strategy & Risk Management: Japanese investors should define risk tolerance, allocate “dip-buy” funds, and employ partial profit-taking amid volatility.
1. Robust V-Shaped Recovery Confirms $117,000 Support
The one-hour BTC/USD chart highlights a dramatic rebound from a June 20 low of approximately $110,000, rallying to retest resistance near $126,000 in early July. This V-shaped recovery underscores persistent buyer demand and solidifies the $117,000 area as critical support. Matrixport’s July 25 report notes that such swift recoveries often precede stronger upward phases, as profit-hungry investors re-enter after short corrections. Maintaining above $117,000 will be vital for Bitcoin to avoid a deeper pullback.
Insert Figure 1 here: Bitcoin Price Trend (see chart above showing price movement from June 20 to August 6, 2025)
2. Breakthrough into $127,000+ Signals New Bull Phase
Bitcoin’s ascent did not stall at the $126,000 level (formerly a resistance “ceiling”) but pressed on to an all-time high of around $128,000 by late July. Successive higher peaks near $123,000, $127,000, and $128,000 illustrate strong accumulation pressure, not merely a transient rebound. The breach of the $126,000 threshold has shifted market sentiment firmly back to bullish, attracting fresh capital and sparking discussion of a “blue-sky” scenario where price could challenge $150,000 by year-end if momentum persists.
3. Summer Slump Fears: Seasonal Patterns & Altcoin Corrections
Despite the robust rally, Bitcoin historically softens in summer months. Data from a seven-year window show an average 17.6% decline in June and typical mid-summer dips of 3–5% in July and August. This seasonality—often dubbed the “August Curse”—is reinforced by the simultaneous correction in many high-beta altcoins, which front-run BTC price drops as capital rotates out for profit-taking.
Insert Figure 2 here: Average Bitcoin Seasonal Decline (%) (June–September chart above)
Renowned BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes cautioned on July 5 that 2025 could echo previous summer downturns, warning traders to brace for potential 20–40% retracements amid ETF inflow slowdowns and macro headwinds.
4. Expert Perspectives: “August Curse” & AI Warnings
- Robert Kiyosaki: Suggests dollar-cost averaging aggressively if BTC dips below $90,000 in August, pointing to broader market seasonality as a buying opportunity rather than a fundamental crisis.
- AI Model Predictions: Warn of a 30–40% drop testing critical $116,000 support by late 2025 if ETF inflows slow and macro risks intensify.
- Bullish Contrarians: Crypto analyst Cristian Chifoi argues Summer 2025 may defy tradition, citing patterns post-halving that sometimes ignite strong mid-year rallies rather than slumps.
5. Japanese Investor Strategy & Risk Management
Align Investments with Risk Tolerance
- Allocate only “disposable capital” to Bitcoin; avoid leveraging or risking essential funds.
- Balance crypto holdings with equities, bonds, and other altcoins to mitigate idiosyncratic BTC swings.
Tactical Entry: Buy the Dip, Take Partial Profits
- Identify dips to $117,000–$120,000 as potential accumulation zones.
- Lock in gains gradually—consider 20–30% profit-taking on moves above new highs to reduce exposure.
Information & Tools
- Monitor reliable data sources (e.g., Matrixport, Chainalysis, major exchanges) for on-chain and off-chain indicators.
- Use technical analysis (support/resistance, RSI divergence) alongside macro signals (Fed policy, ETF flows) for holistic view.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s recent rebound and breakout into $127,000+ territory demonstrate the market’s resilience and the return of bullish sentiment. However, classic summer seasonality, altcoin corrections, and macro uncertainties warrant vigilance. Japanese investors should adopt disciplined risk management—allocating only non-essential capital, buying selective dips, and judiciously securing profits—to navigate this volatile phase. Whether the “August Curse” materializes or a contrarian mid-summer rally unfolds, informed strategies and diversified portfolios will be paramount to capitalize on Bitcoin’s dynamic journey through the rest of 2025 and beyond.