Main Points:
- Bitcoin traded sideways in early July after a clear range-bound phase in June.
- June range: Resistance at ¥16.1M (≈$114K) and support at ¥14.4M (≈$102.8K).
- Late‐June rebound tested resistance again, signaling possible breakout or renewed pullback.
- Key drivers: institutional flows paused (MicroStrategy), whale accumulation near highs, ETF and macro catalysts.
- Two scenarios ahead: a decisive breakout above $115K or a deeper correction back toward $100K.
1. The June–July Price Range: Resistance and Support in Play
Bitcoin’s price action from June 1 through July 7 formed a textbook range between ¥14.4 million and ¥16.1 million ($102.8 K–$114.2 K). Early June saw a climb from an opening price of ¥15.17 M on June 1 to intra‐month highs of ¥15.99 M ($114 K) around June 10. However, every attempt north of the ¥16.1 M ceiling was met with selling pressure, causing retracements back toward the ¥14.4 M floor. That support held multiple times—on June 15 at ¥14.45 M and again on June 23 at ¥14.395 M ($102.8 K)—underscoring keen demand at these levels.
In this balanced tug‐of‐war, short‐term traders sold near the top and bought near the bottom, resulting in low volatility but abundant trading opportunities for range‐bound strategies.
2. Late‐June Rebound and Early July Stasis
After touching the late‐June low, Bitcoin rebounded strongly, climbing back into the mid‐¥15 M range and testing resistance at ¥16.1 M in early July, with prices oscillating between ¥15.49 M and ¥15.77 M ($110.7 K–$112.7 K). By July 7, the price hovered around ¥15.72 M ($112.3 K). Although this uptick brought optimism, the failure to clear ¥16.1 M again reinforced the neutral bias.
Investors must watch for momentum: a sustained move above $114 K (¥16.1 M) could signal a fresh rally; a rejection may reignite selling toward the June lows.
3. Institutional and Whale Dynamics Driving Sentiment
Institutional flows cooled off in early July, with MicroStrategy pausing its Bitcoin purchases for the first time in months (owning 597,325 BTC valued at $64.7 B). Yet, high‐net‐worth “whales” have been quietly accumulating near all‐time highs, transferring coins from retail wallets and indicating bullish expectations for further gains.
Meanwhile, the U.S. House’s “Crypto Week” and ETF inflows have kept macro interest elevated, and Polymarket users assign a 60% chance Bitcoin reaches $115 K by month‐end. The interplay between institutional balance sheet decisions and speculative whale activity forms the market’s underlying current.
4. Potential Catalysts: ETF Growth, Geopolitics, and Halving Anticipation
Several catalysts could tip the balance:
- ETF Inflows: Continued growth in crypto ETFs may drive fresh capital; recent ETF inflows are cited as a key force.
- Geopolitical Uncertainty: U.S. tariff talks and election rhetoric often spur crypto as a risk‐off asset.
- Halving Event: The next Bitcoin halving in early 2028 is already on investors’ radars, potentially fueling pre‐emptive bullish bets.
These factors could provide the spark for a breakout above $120 K, but equally, any regulatory headwinds or macro stability may cap gains.
5. Two Scenarios: Breakout vs. Correction
Bullish Breakout: A decisive close above ¥16.1 M ($114 K) on strong volume would flip resistance into support, paving the way toward new highs near $120 K–$135 K this quarter.
Bearish Correction: Failure at resistance risks a fall below ¥15 M, accelerating selling pressure back toward the June floor near $100 K (¥14.4 M). If that support cracks, further downside toward $95 K is possible.
Traders should monitor volume, on‐chain whale accumulation, and ETF flows for clues on which scenario will play out.
Bitcoin Price Trend (USD) June 1–July 7, 2025
Here’s a succinct visualization of Bitcoin’s key price points over the period (converted at ¥140/USD):
<figure> <!– Chart generated via python –> </figure>
Conclusion
Bitcoin has spent the past month locked in a well‐defined range, reflecting both hesitation and opportunity. While whales and macro catalysts hint at an eventual breakout, institutional pauses and geopolitical clarity may temper the rally. Traders and investors must stay vigilant at the ¥16.1 M ($114 K) resistance and ¥14.4 M ($102.8 K) support levels. A breach in either direction will define Bitcoin’s next leg this summer—toward fresh all‐time highs or a deeper correction.
