＜Today’s short-term forecast＞ Harnessing the Momentum: Bitcoin’s Range Breakout, Profit‑Taking Pullback, and Strategies for Japanese Investors

Main Points:

• Bitcoin has decisively broken above the long‑standing ¥16.1 million (~$108 000) resistance, suggesting the start of a new bull trend.
• Consecutive all‑time highs reaching ¥18.1 million (~$121 500) reflect sustained buying pressure before short‑term profit‑taking set in.
• Large “whale” transfers to exchanges hint at cautious profit realization amid market euphoria.
• Declining volatility and growing institutional adoption point to a maturing bitcoin market.
• Japanese investors should emphasize disciplined risk management, portfolio diversification, and opportunistic buy‑the‑dip strategies.

1. Breaking the Range: From Strong Support to Bullish Breakout

Bitcoin’s hourly BTC/JPY chart shows a decisive move in late June, when price tested a multi‑week low of ¥14 395 223 ($108 882), marking a clear breakout from the protracted range. This breakout indicates that buying interest has overcome previous supply, often the first step in a sustained uptrend.

2. Sequence of Bullish Signals: Record Highs and Declining Volatility

Following the breakout, Bitcoin posted a series of successive highs at ¥17 410 711, ¥17 521 605, ¥17 767 267, and ¥17 821 948, culminating in a peak of ¥18 108 886 (~$121 538) on July 16, 2025. Each new high not only shattered psychological barriers but also reinforced bullish sentiment. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank’s latest report highlights that bitcoin’s volatility has fallen to multi‑year lows even as prices set records, a hallmark of a maturing market where institutional capital dampens wild swings.

3. Profit‑Taking Pullback: Whales Awake

Despite strong momentum, a modest pullback of around 5% from the peak has emerged, driven largely by profit realizations among large holders. On July 15, blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain reported that an “OG” wallet moved 40 000 BTC to Galaxy Digital, which then funnelled 6 000 BTC to Binance and Bybit—moves typically associated with intentions to sell into strength. This pattern suggests that whales are keen to lock in gains, exerting temporary selling pressure even as broader investor confidence remains intact.

4. Implications for Japanese Investors: Strategy and Risk Management

For Japanese market participants, the current environment combines opportunity with risk:

1. Define Risk Tolerance: Allocate only capital you can afford to hold through volatility.
2. Diversify Across Assets: Balance bitcoin exposure with altcoins, equities, and bonds to mitigate drawdowns.
3. Buy‑the‑Dip Discipline: Short‑term pullbacks—like the recent 5% correction—can present structured entry points if the longer‑term bull case holds.
4. Partial Profit‑Taking: As bitcoin achieves new heights, consider scaling out a portion of your position to secure gains and lower your breakeven cost.
5. Stay Informed: Monitor regulatory developments—such as the upcoming U.S. CLARITY Act vote—and institutional flows for early signals of trend shifts.

5. Recent Trends and Outlook

• Regulatory Momentum: “Crypto Week” in Washington, D.C. has heightened expectations around U.S. market‑structure bills and stablecoin frameworks, likely fostering further institutional engagement.
• Institutional Flows: Deutsche Bank notes that BTC’s recent rally was underpinned by historic low volatility, attracting corporate treasuries and hedge funds seeking uncorrelated returns.
• Macro Tailwinds: With global central banks maintaining accommodative stances, bitcoin’s appeal as an inflation hedge remains strong, potentially driving the next leg above $125 000.
• Technical Targets: Chart analysts are eyeing the $130 000–$140 000 zone as the next major resistance, corresponding roughly to ¥19.4–¥20.9 million.

Table 1: Key price levels referenced in this analysis, converted at 1 USD = 149 JPY (Wise, July 16, 2025) .

Figure 1: Bitcoin Price Movement in USD (June–July 2025)
(Note: Chart would plot Table 1 values on a line graph to illustrate the breakout and subsequent pullback.)

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s breach of the ¥16.1 million resistance and its rapid ascent to ¥18.1 million underscore a powerful shift into a new bull phase. Although profit‑taking by whales has induced a short‑term pullback, declining volatility and robust institutional adoption signal a maturing market primed for further gains. Japanese investors should leverage disciplined risk frameworks—prioritizing diversification, strategic entry on dips, and partial profit realization—to navigate this dynamic landscape and capitalize on bitcoin’s evolving role as a core digital asset.