Main Points:
- Vertical Surge and High of ¥13,421,648 (＄93,814): Bitcoin spiked nearly ¥900,000 (＄6,291) above its opening price of ¥12,526,787 (＄87,560), reflecting bullish momentum fueled by renewed institutional interest.
- Consolidation Between ¥13.3M (＄92,964)–¥13.4M (＄93,663): Profit-taking at new highs has led to a tight trading range, setting up a pivotal breakout or breakdown scenario.
- Macro and On-Chain Catalysts: Upcoming options expiry, U.S. dollar strength, and Tokyo inflation figures could tip the balance toward further gains or a corrective pullback.
- Technical Triggers to Watch: A firm close above ¥13,421,648 (＄93,814) would target ¥13.6M (＄95,061), while a drop below ¥13.3M (＄92,964) risks a test of ¥13.0M (＄90,867)–¥12.8M (＄89,469) support.
- Risk Factors and Strategy: Regulatory developments, volatility from options expiry, and profit-taking pose risks; disciplined risk management is essential in this tight range.
1. Vertical Surge and New Highs
In today’s session, Bitcoin opened at ¥12,526,787 (＄87,560) and, propelled by renewed institutional inflows—including a reported ¥4 billion (＄27,959,124) backing for a new crypto SPAC by SoftBank—soared to a high of ¥13,421,648 (＄93,814) around 1 PM JST, marking a nearly ¥900,000 (＄6,291) jump within hours. This dramatic upswing highlights the resurgence of bullish sentiment following a period of consolidation and aligns with broader investor appetite for crypto-tied equities seen in recent SPAC deals.
2. High-Range Consolidation and Critical Pivot
After hitting today’s peak, Bitcoin has entered a phase of tight consolidation between ¥13.3 million (＄92,964) and ¥13.4 million (＄93,663), reflecting a tussle between profit-taking and fresh buying. According to a recent FOREX24 analysis of BTC/USD, continuation of the uptrend hinges on holding the support at the lower channel boundary and rebounding from oversold RSI levels—paralleling our local support zone at ¥13.3 million (＄92,964). A decisive break above ¥13,421,648 (＄93,814) could signal a fresh leg higher, while a slip below ¥13.3 million (＄92,964) may invite a correction toward ¥13.0 million (＄90,867) or lower.
3. Macro and On-Chain Catalysts
Crypto options worth $8 billion expire today at 08:00 UTC, with $7.2 billion in BTC contracts vs. $800 million (＄) in ETH, and a maximum pain level for BTC around $85,000 (~¥12.6 million). Historically, such expiries can trigger volatility as large holders attempt to pin prices near their positions. Additionally, Tokyo’s headline CPI excluding food & energy jumped from 1.1% to 2.0% YoY, intensifying BoJ rate-hike speculation and putting downward pressure on USD/JPY—indirectly influencing BTC/JPY through currency cross-effects.
4. Technical Triggers: Breakout and Breakdown Levels
- Bullish Scenario: A close above ¥13,421,648 (＄93,814) would unlock targets at ¥13,500,000 (＄94,362) and potentially ¥13,600,000 (＄95,061), aligning with Fibonacci extension levels from the earlier rally.
- Bearish Scenario: A sustained move below ¥13,300,000 (＄92,964) risks a corrective pullback to key supports at ¥13,000,000 (＄90,867) and ¥12,800,000 (＄89,469)—areas corresponding to 50% and 61.8% retracements of today’s advance.
Technical analysis from Crypto Rover notes that similar breakouts on April 24 saw a 10% intraday surge accompanied by 35% higher volume, suggesting that volume confirmation will be essential to validate any fresh moves beyond today’s range.
5. Risk Factors and Management
Investor should maintain tight stop-loss levels and scale positions to protect capital in this high-volatility environment.
Given the current congestion at ¥13.3 (＄92,964)–¥13.4 million (＄93,663), traders are advised to:
- Use limit orders to control entry risk.
- Place stop-loss orders just below ¥13.3 million (＄92,964) (for longs) or above ¥13.42 million (＄93,803) (for shorts).
- Monitor on-chain metrics like exchange inflows and network fees for early warning signs of trend exhaustion.
Today’s Bitcoin market price has been in a range-bound trading after soaring from the opening price of about ¥12.5 million (＄87,372) to about ¥13.4 million (＄93,663). The short-term direction will be clarified depending on whether it can surpass the high of ¥13,421,648 (＄93,814) at 13:00 or fall below ¥13,300,000 (＄92,964). With multiple factors such as option expirations, macroeconomic indicators, and currency trends overlapping, it is important to trade while thoroughly managing risk. In the best case scenario, a break from today’s high will bring the further upside target of ¥13.6 million (＄95,061) into view, and conversely, if a correction begins, we would like to wait for support confirmation around ¥12.8 million (＄89,469). Investors should always follow the latest information and adjust their position sizes appropriately to weather the volatile crypto market.
