Main Points:
- Bitcoin has rebounded slightly from late-June lows but faces potential selling pressure as it enters the “Goto-bi” period before the weekend.
- Key resistance lies between ¥16,100,000–¥16,200,000 (approx. $104,000–$105,000), with firm support at ¥14,400,000 (approx. $92,900).
- Institutional demand remains a powerful tailwind: corporate treasuries up 375% YoY and U.S. spot ETFs holding 1.25M BTC (6% of supply).
- ETF inflows surged $7.1 billion in early July, signaling continued confidence despite short-term market pullbacks.
- U.S. regulatory developments—“Crypto Week” and new ETF filings—could amplify volatility and investor interest.
Modest Rebound Confronts “Goto-bi” Season
Bitcoin has shown resilience in early July 2025, posting a modest bounce from late-June lows. However, as traders approach the Japanese market’s “Goto-bi” days—venerated trading dates known for increased volatility—there is a heightened risk of profit-taking into the weekend.
Since bottoming near ¥14,395,223 (＄92,874) on June 29, Bitcoin has risen to around ¥15,953,945 (＄102,935) on July 9, reflecting a recovery of over 10% in just under two weeks. This ascent incorporates broader macro signals: the yen’s relative weakness against the dollar and Ethereum’s steadfast performance have collectively supported Bitcoin’s bid. Yet the onset of “Goto-bi” may prompt short-term sellers to lock in gains, as historically these dates coincide with erratic flows in Japanese trading desks.
Critical Price Levels: Navigating Resistance and Support
Resistance at ¥16.1M–¥16.2M (approx. $104,000–$105,000)
The most significant hurdle lies between ¥16,100,000 and ¥16,200,000 (approx. $104,000–$105,000). Bitcoin has repeatedly tested but failed to sustain above this zone, underscoring the resolve of sellers at these heights.
Support at ¥14.4M ($92,900)
On the downside, a solid support band around ¥14,400,000 ($92,900) has stemmed declines across late June. A breach below this level risks a swift slide back toward June’s bottom.
Recent Price Action and Chart Analysis
Below is a concise chart capturing Bitcoin’s trajectory from late June to early July 2025, with both Japanese yen and U.S. dollar valuations based on an approximate USD/JPY rate of 155:
(Chart displayed above)
- June 29: Floor formed at ¥14,395,223 ($92,874).
- July 3: Rebound kicks off, breaching ¥15,170,748 ($97,872).
- July 7: Local peak at ¥15,723,076 ($101,435).
- July 9: Current price near ¥15,953,945 ($102,935).
This steady recovery underscores a short-term bullish bias, though momentum may wane if the resistance zone holds or if “Goto-bi” selling intensifies.
Institutional Demand: A Steady Underpinning
Corporate Treasuries Embrace Bitcoin
In H1 2025, corporate Bitcoin treasuries surged by 375% year-over-year, with public companies now holding 4% of total Bitcoin supply. This institutional accumulation reflects confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term macro-asset thesis.
ETF Inflows Highlight Continued Confidence
According to TradingNews, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs garnered $7.1 billion in inflows in early July, even as Bitcoin treaded water in the $100,000–$110,000 range. Analysts interpret these inflows as evidence that institutions are viewing current pullbacks as buying opportunities, reinforcing Bitcoin’s maturation.
Regulatory Catalysts on the Horizon
Congress Declares “Crypto Week”
The U.S. House of Representatives has slated the week of July 14 for votes on industry-backed bills aimed at easing regulatory burdens, including the Genius Act for stablecoin oversight, the Clarity Act defining CFTC vs. SEC roles, and a ban on a federal CBDC issuance. These measures, if passed, could inject optimism into the market.
Trump Media’s “Crypto Blue Chip ETF”
Coinciding with legislative efforts, Trump Media & Technology Group filed for a new “Crypto Blue Chip ETF” comprising 70% Bitcoin, 15% Ethereum, and other major tokens. Simplifying access to a diversified crypto basket, this ETF may attract retail and institutional investors alike, potentially boosting demand.
Broader Market Context and Upcoming Catalysts
- Macro Liquidity Trends: M2 global liquidity breakthroughs have correlated closely with Bitcoin’s surges, suggesting that central bank policies and money supply dynamics remain key drivers.
- Altcoin Resilience: Ethereum continues to exhibit strength around $2,577, with whale accumulation totalling $515 million, reinforcing the narrative of diversified institutional crypto holdings.
- Regulatory Milestones for Stablecoins: Ripple’s quest for an OCC banking license highlights the regulatory embrace of stablecoins, setting a precedent for credible custody solutions in the sector.
Looking ahead, market participants will focus on:
- Resistance Breakout: A decisive close above ¥16.1M ($104,000) could trigger renewed momentum toward ¥17M ($115,811)+ ($109,700+).
- Rejection and Retracement: Failure to clear the resistance zone may catalyze a pullback to support levels, testing ¥14.4M (＄92,900).
- Crypto Week Outcomes: Legislative progress—or setbacks—during “Crypto Week” could sway sentiment abruptly.
- ETF Launch Dynamics: The structure and reception of the new Crypto Blue Chip ETF will reveal investor appetite for diversified crypto exposure.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s modest rebound into the ¥16 million (＄108,998) territory underscores a recovering market amid robust institutional demand and evolving regulatory frameworks. While “Goto-bi” trading days introduce short-term uncertainty, the confluence of corporate treasury growth, record ETF inflows, and impending legislative milestones sets the stage for potential sustained upside. Traders should watch the critical ¥16.1M–¥16.2M (approx. $104,000–$105,000) resistance zone: a breakthrough here may signal a continuation of the recovery trend, while failure could usher in a retest of ¥14.4M ($92,900) support. Ultimately, as Bitcoin cements its role as a macro-asset, its price trajectory will hinge on how institutional flows, regulatory clarity, and broader macro liquidity trends interact in the weeks ahead.
