Main Points:
- U.S.–EU trade agreement with 15% tariffs follows a similar U.S.–Japan deal, buoying risk‑on sentiment and crypto flows
- Bitcoin staged a V‑shaped recovery from ¥14.40 M (＄97,484) support to ¥18.11 M (＄122,532) high, underlining robust demand despite macro uncertainties
- New highs above $120,000 highlight extreme market enthusiasm and point to further upside potential
- Japanese investors should adopt disciplined risk management and consider both profit‑taking and strategic accumulation in this volatile environment
Tariff Deal as a Tailwind
On July 27, 2025, President Trump and EU Commission President von der Leyen reached a framework accord imposing a 15 percent tariff on most European imports—half of the threatened 30 percent rate—while securing a $600 billion EU investment commitment in U.S. energy and defense equipment. This agreement follows closely on the heels of a U.S.–Japan deal announced July 23, featuring a 15 percent tariff on Japanese goods and a $550 billion investment package. The rapid succession of these trade pacts has lifted risk assets globally, as markets interpret the deals as reducing geopolitical uncertainty and signaling renewed appetite for higher‑yielding assets.
V‑Shaped Recovery: From Support to Breakout
Bitcoin’s June 23 low of ¥14,395,223 (approx. $98,154 USD based on 1 USD = ¥146.7434). proved to be a firm floor. Within days, buyers drove prices back above ¥15.7 M ($107 k USD) by July 1, and continued to press higher through early July. By mid‑month, sustained buying pressure propelled Bitcoin past the long‑standing ¥16.1 M resistance, culminating in successive new peaks at ¥16.97 M (＄114,882), ¥17.41 M (＄117,861), and ¥17.50 M ($115–119 k USD). Insert Figure 1 here: Bitcoin Price Trend in USD (June 23–July 28, 2025).
Momentum Unleashed: Chasing All‑Time Highs
The rally showed no signs of exhaustion. Between July 24 and 28, Bitcoin pierced ¥17.52 M (＄118,606), ¥17.77 M (＄120,298), ¥17.82 M (＄120,636) and ultimately ¥18.11 M (＄122,532)—equating to roughly $123,400 USD at its peak. These breakouts signal a transition from a recovery phase to a potential “blue sky” market, where psychological barriers give way to unconstrained upside. Sustained volume and widening institutional participation reinforce the view that the trend may extend further. Insert Figure 2 here: Support and Resistance Levels in USD.
Strategy for Japanese Investors: Discipline and Diversification
With Bitcoin now trading in uncharted territory above ¥18 M (＄122,532), Japanese investors face a dual challenge: capturing further gains while safeguarding against sharp reversals. Key strategies include:
- Define Risk Tolerance: Allocate only “house‑money” that would not imperil core finances.
- Scale into Positions: Use pullbacks toward former resistance (now support) around ¥17.86 M ($121.7 k USD) to add gradually.
- Partial Profit‑Taking: Lock in gains on parabolic moves; e.g., consider selling 20–30 percent at new highs.
- Diversify Across Assets: Balance crypto exposure with equities, bonds, and alternative cryptos to mitigate idiosyncratic risk.
- Stay Informed: Monitor on‑chain metrics, derivatives markets, and macro news for early warning of sentiment shifts.
Conclusion
The rapid succession of U.S.–Japan and U.S.–EU tariff agreements has ignited a powerful rally in risk assets, with Bitcoin leading the charge. A decisive V‑shaped recovery from ¥14.40 M (＄97,484) to highs above ¥18.10 M (＄122,532) underscores entrenched buyer demand, while successive breakouts hint at a new phase of euphoria. For Japanese investors, disciplined risk management—anchored by clear entry/exit plans, profit‑taking at parabolic peaks, and diversified allocations—will be crucial in navigating this high‑volatility environment. As Bitcoin ventures into uncharted price territory, the balance between capturing upside and preserving capital will define the next chapter of crypto investing.
