Main Points ：
- Bitcoin tested a firm support and rebounded strongly from $95.9k
- Multiple all‑time highs: peaked at $120.7k on July 29, 2025
- Altcoins (ETH, XRP) have been in a downtrend, signaling cautious sentiment
- Market momentum suggests possible challenge of $125k next, but risk of pullback remains
- Japanese investors: long‑term perspective, risk management, and opportunistic dip‑buying
1. Altcoin Weakness Spreads
Despite Bitcoin’s resilience, Ethereum and Ripple have shown decline through late July. ETH fell from about $1,850 to $1,650 (July 25–29), while XRP slid from $0.75 to $0.65 over the same period, indicating investor rotation into Bitcoin or out of crypto altogether.
[Altcoin Price Drop, file]
This drop in altcoins can erode overall market sentiment, with small‑cap tokens likely under pressure. Should altcoin weakness persist into early August, a deeper correction across the board is possible.
2. Firm Support and V‑Shaped Recovery
On June 24, Bitcoin tested a local low of ¥14,395,223 ($95,968) before bouncing sharply. The ¥14.4 million ($96k) level has proven to be a robust buy zone, marking a textbook V‑shaped recovery. By early July, BTC reclaimed ¥15.77 million ($105k) and ¥15.82 million ($105.5k), testing previous resistance near ¥16.1 million ($107.3k).
[Bitcoin Price Trend, file]
This strength suggests institutional and retail participants remain willing to buy dips, underpinning price stability in a broader uptrend.
3. Unstoppable Record Highs: Breaking $120k
Bitcoin’s ascent did not stall at ¥16.1 million; subsequent milestones include ¥16.97 million ($113.2k), ¥17.41 million ($116.1k), and ¥17.50 million ($116.7k). The breakout above this long‑standing resistance pivoted market bias firmly bullish. On July 27, BTC ticked ¥18.11 million (~$120.7k), its highest ever. The current range near $118–121k tests the next psychological ceiling around $125k.
Such relentless record highs feed a FOMO‑driven cycle, attracting fresh capital. Yet, every parabolic advance raises the odds of short‑term profit‑taking and volatility spikes.
4. Guidance for Japanese Investors: Strategy & Risk Management
With Bitcoin in new territory, Japanese participants should balance optimism with prudence:
- Define Risk Tolerance: Allocate only expendable funds; keep crypto exposure within a small portion of total net worth.
- Diversify: Combine Bitcoin with select altcoins, equities, or bonds to smooth returns.
- Dip‑Buying: Identify healthy corrections (e.g., 5–10% pullbacks) around core support levels (e.g., $110k–115k) as buying opportunities.
- Profit‑Taking: Consider locking in gains incrementally—e.g., sell 10–20% at each new all‑time high.
- Information Edge: Leverage reliable on‑chain analysis platforms and reputable news outlets; avoid unverified rumors.
By following disciplined rules and avoiding emotional trading, investors can capitalize on this new high‑price era while protecting capital against sudden drawdowns.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s resurgence from a nearly $96k low to above $120k in just over a month underscores its enduring allure and market depth. Meanwhile, altcoin underperformance highlights shifting sentiment and the need for strategic selectivity. As Japan’s crypto community navigates record highs, combining long‑term vision, disciplined risk management, and opportunistic entry points will be key. The next frontier—$125k and beyond—beckons, but only the prepared will thrive in this dynamic landscape.
