Main Points:
- Downtrend Continues: Bitcoin’s price is following a predicted downward trend as the month-end sells off weigh on the market.
- Technical Weakness: 1-hour chart analysis reveals that after a rebound from intraday lows, Bitcoin has resumed its decline, currently trading at approximately 12,270,833 yen (＄82,407).
- Support at Risk: With support around 10,700,000 yen (＄71,858) and resistance at 15,000,000 yen (＄100,735), a break below recent lows could lead to further declines, potentially even falling below 10 million yen (＄67,157).
- Outlook: Analysts suggest that, barring a major catalyst, the market may remain weak through the new fiscal year and possibly into the summer.
I. Bitcoin Enters a Downward Mode
As the month draws to a close, Bitcoin’s price has begun to fall as anticipated. Investors have noted that, despite initial rebounds earlier in the session, selling pressure has regained the upper hand. The market sentiment is cautious—many are now questioning whether the start of the new fiscal year will bring any positive momentum or if the trend will persist into the summer, with some forecasts even hinting at a drop below the 10 million yen (＄67,157) mark.
II. Analysis of the 1-Hour Chart
At 7:21 AM on March 31, the 1-hour chart for BTC/JPY reveals:
- Opening Price: 13,530,024 yen (＄90,863)
- High Price: 14,037,591 yen (＄94,177)
- Low Price: 11,284,730 yen (＄75,708)
- Current Price: 12,270,833 yen (＄82,407)
The chart shows that Bitcoin fell sharply from the opening price to a low of 11,284,730 yen (＄75,708) before rebounding toward 13 million yen (＄87,216). However, the rebound was short-lived, and the price has since declined again. The volatility remains high, with the wide gap between the session’s high and low reflecting the market’s ongoing uncertainty.
III. Price Movement Overview and Technical Analysis
Bitcoin’s recent price action is characterized by:
- Support Level: Approximately 10,700,000 yen (＄71,858)
- Resistance Level: Approximately 15,000,000 yen (＄100,735)
Although there was a brief rebound suggesting buying interest near the lows, Bitcoin has not managed to break through the critical 15,000,000 yen (＄100,735) resistance level. The most recent dip to around 12,479,883 yen (＄83,726) suggests that the current downward trend may continue. Should Bitcoin break below these recent support levels, further declines could be expected.
IV. Outlook: Short-Term Caution and Long-Term Uncertainty
Short-term technical analysis based on the 1-hour chart indicates that the current downtrend is likely to persist. The market appears to be in a fragile state, where any additional selling pressure could push the price further down. While some investors hope that the new fiscal year might bring a change in sentiment, the prevailing view is that the market could remain subdued until a significant catalyst emerges. Longer-term trends will need to be analyzed using daily and weekly charts for a more comprehensive picture.
V. Navigating a Cautious Market
In summary, Bitcoin is currently in a downward mode as predicted by market analysts. With its price having dropped to around 12,270,833 yen (＄82,407) and failing to maintain a sustained rebound, the market appears vulnerable to further declines—potentially even below the 10 million yen (＄67,157) support level. Investors should exercise caution in the short term, as the new fiscal year may not bring immediate relief. Continuous monitoring of key technical levels, such as the support at 10,700,000 yen (＄71,858) and resistance at 15,000,000 yen (＄100,735), will be crucial for making informed decisions in an uncertain market environment.
Bitcoin’s price has fallen as expected, currently trading at about 12,270,833 yen (＄82,407) after a short-lived rebound. With critical support and resistance levels in play, the market is showing signs of prolonged weakness. Unless a significant catalyst emerges, the downward trend may persist into the new fiscal year, potentially pushing Bitcoin’s value even below 10 million yen (＄67,157). Investors should remain cautious and closely monitor technical indicators.
